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AEI Scholar Frederick W. Kagan on the Current Debate about Iraq

Media Inquiries: Véronique Rodman
vrodman@aei.org; 202.862.4870

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: July 25, 2008

Senator Barack Obama's visit to the Middle East this week and the ensuing debate between Obama and Senator John McCain once again has brought Iraq to the forefront of the 2008 presidential campaign. AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan, who has just returned from a two-week trip to Iraq, offers his assessment of the current situation on the ground:

The surge has accomplished all of its most important objectives: the Iraqi government has reached almost all of the legislative benchmarks set for it, the sectarian civil war is over, and al Qaeda in Iraq has been devastated.
America can best avoid a conflict with Iran by maintaining a strong force in Iraq. The surge has largely defanged Sadrist and Iranian-backed militias, but they may return in force if U.S. commitment falters.
Recent comments by some Iraqi leaders about the status-of-force agreement discussions, made as Iraq looks forward to provincial elections, represent primarily a desire to improve Iraq's negotiating position; even the strongest Iraqi champions for U.S. troop reductions favor a long-term security partnership between the United States and Iraq.
The United States has an extraordinary yet fleeting opportunity to improve its security and better the stability of a vital world region; it should not squander that opportunity by making the most serious mistake it could: withdrawing American forces too rapidly.