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Discussion: (5 comments)

  1. It´s a ‘chilling’ prospect. Again the Fed is behind the fact:
    http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/chilling/

  2. Brendon Bernard

    While I’m not suggesting that long-term unemployment is anything but brutal, these studies are pretty misleading.

    The reason the Beveridge curve has shifted out is that the job-finding rate is down – people are spending more time in unemployment. But the important thing is that re-employment rates remained depressed across ALL durations of unemployment, not just among the long-term.

    The reason that the Beveridge curve has only shifted out for the long-term unemployed is that the seperation rate is lower than we would expect for the given level of job-vacancies. The Beveridge curve has shifted inward at short-term durations of unemployment, not because they are doing so well, but because layoffs and quits are so low. Plot the Beveridge curve at the different categories of duration and you see the curve progressively shifting outwards from >4 weeks to 5-14 weeks to 15-26 weeks, to full +27 weeks.

    The take-away is that even if the long-term unemployed have become hopelessly unemployable, an improvement of re-employment rates of the short-term unemployed would be enough to deliver significant labor market improvement.

  3. Todd Mason

    The good news is that long-term unemployment is relatively evenly spread except for a few correlations (inversely proportional to education, higher among blacks and construction workers.) shttp://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2013/el2013-03.html

    This author suggests that sector recoveries may reverse the trend, noting progress on that front in manufacturing. Surely, a healthy construction industry would make a big difference in jobless rates.

    Wide distribution is good news, assuming some/much of the problem is temporary. Given a smaller chronic problem, you can target the jobless with multiple strikes, such as education, race or age.

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