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Discussion: (7 comments)

  1. Wayne Abernathy

    There are many reasons for this payment volatility. One that I suspect that it all shows is how variable tax receipts are when you work off of a narrow base.

  2. MacDaddyWatch

    How about capital gains taken in 2012 in order to avoid the 2013 cap gains hike from 15% last year to about 23% for the wealthy this year. Thats nearly an 8 point differential, plenty of incentive for some folks to pull the trigger early.

    That won’t happen again.

  3. Todd Mason

    The DJIA was at 13,104 on 12-31-12. Paying 15 percent capital gains on the ENTIRE index as a gain (impossible) would net $11,138. The DJIA was at 15215 on 5-13-13. At 23 percent capital gains on the ENTIRE index (impossible) the take home would be $11,715.
    One hopes that MacDaddy isn’t selling investment advice.

  4. Still a huge annual deficit when you consider government debt stands at $17T. On top of that there is significant waste and fraud and unnecessary spending. We need reform of entitlements and smarter government

  5. Pretty unbelievable. This rates a quick blog post and barely an admission from Mr. Pethoukoukis — Just months ago, the GOP was ranting about our nightmare deficits, but when it begins closing at a speed few could even anticipate, its swept under the rug because its Obama… Unbelievable.

  6. re: “And once we get past the the ten-year budget widow depicted in the charts”

    I wonder if you folks ever read the comments. As I pointed out before, the Federal Reserve published a study last year regarding the accuracy of CBO’s long range deficit forecasts over the last few decades, noting (where RW=”Random Walk”):
    “the CBO’s cumulative 5-year projections are considerably worse than projections from the RW model; […]the deficit projections beyond a year were unreliable. Importantly, we found that the projections were biased in the direction of underprojecting the size of the deficit or overprojecting the size of the surplus.”

    In addition the CBO has an unrealistic baseline scenario which assumes current laws aren’t changed, even though for instance politicians want to remove the sequester. In addition some have observed that there may be increased revenue temporarily with people scheduling capital gains and other revenue recognition and taxes ahead of tax increases so the change may be misleading.

    Their current policy forecast is at least slightly more accurate, but it contains optimistic forecasts for GDP growth, rather than using more conservative ones for planning purposes which seems more appropriate. This page updates a GAO forecast using more conservative projections from other government agencies.

  7. juandos

    Is America’s Age of Debt pretty much over?“…


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