AEIdeas

The public policy blog of the American Enterprise Institute

Subscribe to the blog

Discussion: (27 comments)

  1. there are a TON of elderly that WOULD WORK if they could but the labor market does not want or need them unless they work for less than minimum wage.

    that’s the fundamental problem – the are not enough jobs.

    1. mesa econoguy

      Dumbass, older workers are staying in the workforce longer, which is partly why the LFPR is not explained by demographics –

      http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/Labor%20Force%20Part%20Rate.jpg

    2. mesa econoguy
    3. mesa econoguy
      1. Charlie

        It is interesting how this chart labels the decrease in job loss as “recovery”

  2. “Call it the Big Downshift. And blame, mostly, demographics:”

    You left out immigration. Our utterly retarded defacto immigration policy amounts to allowing in millions of unskilled, non-English speaking peasants from Mexico at the expense of, say, electrical engineers from Colombia. Those Colombian engineers end up going to places that value their skills, like Canada. The unskilled peasants usually end up getting welfare to supplement their peasant wages in the not exactly cutting edge lettuce picking industry.

    We are lowering the curve when we could easily be raising it.

    1. regarding immigration paul & mes, you might find this CIS study a bit depressing: Immigrants in the United States, 2010: A Profile of America’s Foreign-Born Population

      Yet that seditious, parasitic idiot Eric Holder claims that: Citizenship For Illegal Immigrants Is A ‘Matter Of Civil And Human Rights

      Come on in boys & girls, we don’t have near enough tax leeches now – we need more!

      1. Juandos, the CIS is indispensable, especially now with Rubio out spreading bullshit about his amnesty bill.

        1. juandos

          Juandos, the CIS is indispensable, especially now with Rubio out spreading bullshit about his amnesty bill“…

          Absolutely paul, Rubio and the rest of the seditious gang of 8 are slinging the BS by the ship load…

          BTW Dr. Robert Rector’s: Importing Poverty: Immigration and Poverty in the United States: A Book of Charts is also handy…

    2. Oakridger

      And those peasants are 50-years old and can trade their Mexican social security for ours and never pay-in 40 quarters of earnings.

      Those peasants can claim asylum for fear of death by Mexican drug cartels and ICE agents escort them to a paid hotel room.

      How stupid are we – really, really, really stupid!

      Illegal aliens, green card holding immigrants have no rights in America until they are earned the old fashioned way – change your name to Smith or Jones, learn English, get a job and pay your taxes.

      Rich Americans are leaving the US in droves; why, because they can afford to and thus collectively avoid $100 billion in annual taxes.

      The whole mess makes me sick and there is nothing the middle class can do; except, start an American Revolution II against a truly corrupt and self-serving government that cares nothing about, “We the People of the United States,…”

      Why else would every U.S. Agency be arming itself and at the same time via the United Nations trying to disarm Americans – ‘If American’s guns are outlawed, only our outlaw Federal government will have guns.’

      “I’ll give you my gun when you pry (or take) it from my cold, dead hands.”

  3. mesa econoguy

    Poor economic policy and massive intervention/interference is killing the economy. Remove most of those, we will have 6% growth almost instantly.

    The hilarious part (except for the catastrophic effect it is having on retirement savings and entitlement solvency) is watching morons like Larry and Toad Manson whine and flail and scream for more interventionism and rules, to fix it, thereby making it even worse.

    1. about the only thing worth screaming about is the self-delusional types who nest here in CD and Coyote.

      1. mesa econoguy

        Awesome retort Larry, did you come up with that all by yourself?

        Don’t feel bad; we already know you’re deficient, so living up to your shortcomings is expected.

      2. “about the only thing worth screaming about is the self-delusional types who nest here in CD and Coyote.”

        Well then by all means, Larry, go inflict your stupidity on some other blogs instead and you can stop the screaming.
        You won’t be missed.

        1. Todd Mason

          I believe Mesa Econolube wins the Black Helicopters All-Time Hysterical Blog Post (BHATHBP) here:

          “Mesa Econoguy • 4 years ago
          Now this:
          RIGHT NOW, THE US GOVERNMENT IS HOLDING A SOLVENT MAJOR MONEY CENTER BANK HOSTAGE.
          This is not a drill, this is happening NOW.
          THEY ARE COMING AFTER YOUR RETIREMENT ASSETS NEXT. The government will seize most of what you own, directly or indirectly. Wait until they come after your house, your car, etc. These people will stop at nothing.”

          http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2009/04/who-could-have-predicted-this.html
          The horror! A bank held accountable!

          1. juandos

            Nice linkage todd: Internal Server Error

          2. LarryG

            Juandoze. .. are you saying that Mesa Econolube has an Internal Server Error?

            NICE ONE!

          3. juandos

            Juandoze. .. are you saying that Mesa Econolube has an Internal Server Error?“…

            Just when I think I’ve seen the most indescribably idiotic comment ever made you go and outdo yourself again larry g

            Good job sir! Good job…

          4. LarryG

            LAWD LAWD JUNDOZE! I’m starting to believe several here in CD have an “internal server error”!

          5. juandos

            LAWD LAWD JUNDOZE! I’m starting to believe several here in CD have an “internal server error”!“…

            OK larry g, try in English now…

          6. mesa econoguy

            Hey Juandos & Paul, guess the asshat store was having a 2-for-1 special today.

            Look!

            It’s The Larry the Lefty and Toad Manson show….

            http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/full_retard.jpg

            Superb couple of leftist retards you two are.

            As Juandos said, well done. Your level of stupidity displayed here takes extra effort.

          7. juandos

            A two for one sale, eh mesa?

            Heh!…☺ ☺

        2. mesa econoguy

          Hey Juandos & Paul, guess the asshat store was having a 2-for-1 special today.

  4. Obviously the problem with these forecasts is that it isn’t possible to predict what the impact of future innovations will be, some new discovery could supercharge growth again. However it is important for the government (and populace) to plan for the worst case. Although people talk about X% growth per year as if it were expected to by default be exponential, if you actually look at the data the growth rate hasn’t been exponential for the time BEA provides GDP data. It may come close to matching an exponential trend, but it matches a slower growth trend better, as this page explains:

    http://www.politicsdebunked.com/article-list/growthdebate

  5. Due to the potential for slower growth, longterm government debt forecasts like the CBO and GAOs should consider their scenarios with slower growth scenarios. The Social Security Administration does, their slower growth GDP is similar to Citigroup’s. This page updates the GAO long term forecast with conservative figures (and has an interactive graph letting you change various options):
    http://www.politicsdebunked.com/article-list/budget-lottery

    It also links to a page pointing out that the Social Security Administrations forecasts may be too optimistic as well.

  6. Oh, also it is not clear where the labor force participation rates are coming from, the last BLS long term report I saw shows them continuing to head down:

    http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/11/art3full.pdf
    It estimated by 2020 the male participation rate would decline to 70% and by 2050 it would decline to 66%, and expect the female participation rate to reach 59.4% in 2020 and drop to 55.1% by 2050. I don’t have a note on the total labor force participation rate they project and don’t have time to check the link now for it, just wanted to pass that along before going offline.

  7. Oh, also, that was the last very long term projection they did, they did another one last year just through 2020 that showed the rate going down even faster than their prior long range forecast had shown, the paper can be found on the BLS site, I don’t have time to track the link down now.

Comments are closed.

Sort By:

Refine Content:

Scholar

Additional Keywords:

Refine Results

or to save searches.

Open
Refine Content