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Discussion: (16 comments)

  1. Total oil supply includes IMPORTS which is what yields the numbers you plot in your graph above. Crude Oil and Condensate production in the US in Jan 13 was 7 million b/d. Crude Oil and Condensate production in Saudi Arabia in Jan 13 was 9.14 million b/d. We are still a ways off from displacing KSA. Btw, Russia was the largest producer at 9.9 million b/d.

    1. I’m reporting monthly PRODUCTION statistics for ALL petroleum products as reported by the EIA. They are including other products besides crude oil, like NGPL and other liquids, lease condensate, refined petroleum products, etc. I updated the post to clarify.

  2. Benjamin Cole

    The Peak Oi was hysterical back in 2005 that Saudi Arabia could not boost production, and that the USA was in terminal decline, in terms of oil production.

    Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

    My guess is that the next 20 years see stagnant oil prices, and plenty of liquid fuel from many sources, and soft demand.

    And if PHEVs ever become commercial–and I think they do in 7-10 years—who will the oil guys sell their product to?

    1. Vangel

      Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

      It sure was for the optimists. They pointed out how new capital investment and strategies would get Saudi production to over 12 mbpd. They were way off on that one. As for the US, the long term trend is still down.

      My guess is that the next 20 years see stagnant oil prices, and plenty of liquid fuel from many sources, and soft demand.

      That would require a stable currency and the last time I looked at it, the USD wasn’t very stable. It would require a collapse of real economic activity that takes demand lower but that would have a huge effect on the supply side. And over the next 20 years depletion will do its job as production continues to decline at 50% a year from shale wells, around 25% per year from deep water wells, and 4% or so from conventional sources. It will require a massive amount of new capital just to keep production flat and it is doubtful that such investments can take place when returns are as low as they are.

    2. The Peak Oi – was that the Australian version of Peak Oil? :)

  3. hitssquad

    “And if PHEVs ever become commercial–and I think they do in 7-10 years—who will the oil guys sell their product to?”

    Ocean shippers, long-haul truckers, airlines, etc.

  4. Vangel

    The Energy Information Administration released new data today on international energy statistics for the month of January. For the third straight month, total petroleum production in “Saudi America” during the month of January (11.56 million barrels per day) exceeded petroleum production in Saudi Arabia (10.85 million barrels per day). Also for the third month in a row, “Saudi America” took the top spot in January as the No. 1 petroleum producer in the world. The last time that the US produced more petroleum than Saudi Arabia was back in August 2002, more than ten years ago (see chart above).

    First, the US did not produce 11.56 mbpd of crude in January. Second, the Saudis produce mostly crude oil, while quite a bit of the American production is ethanol, refinery gains, and NGLs. Third, American crude production peaked in 1970 at just under 10 mbpd, significantly higher than the 7.2 mpbd production that we see today.

    1. For Total Petroleum Production, Russia was No. 3 in January, see EIA data at the link provided in the post.

      1. Vangel

        The total data includes ethanol and refinery gains that come from processing heavier crude. Since the processing gains have an energy cost that is not being counted including them in the aggregate without adjusting for the energy losses during processing is deceptive. If we want to talk about Peak Oil and be consistent in our use of the data let us stick to crude, not refinery gains, alcohol or biofuels.

        1. hitssquad

          Energy cost isn’t relevant to petroleum production because:

          1. petroleum is virtually unvalued for its energy content; and

          2. there are other fuels with lower costs per unit energy that can power petroleum production and refinement.

          1. Vangel

            Ethanol and biofuels are not petroleum. And when they consume as much energy as they contain there is no point counting them as supply.

          2. hitssquad

            @Vangel “Ethanol and biofuels are not petroleum”

            I was responding only to the part of your comment that dealt with “refinery gains that come from processing heavier crude [which] processing gains have an energy cost that is not being counted”.

  5. rando randy

    The key term here is “refined petroleum products”

    Production of refined petroleum (like jet fuel) is NOT the same as net exports. A lot of the production of these petroleum products is based off of imported Canadian and other crude.

  6. Che is dead

    “The Russian energy firm Gazprom is increasingly off its stride in Europe, its largest export market. Bulgaria has managed to negotiate a 20 percent price cut in its new ten-year contract with the gas giant, an unprecedented reversal of fortune from only a short time ago. Gazprom had cut off gas to the Ukraine in 2006 and 2009 during contract negotiations, which left Bulgaria freezing for several days as they were on the same pipeline. Bulgarians are probably relishing their success now with no small amount of schadenfreude.

    The cause of the turnaround, the Wall Street Journal reports, should come as no surprise: the shale gas boom in the United States. The US has begun exporting gas to Europe, and has also ramped up coal exports by more than 250 percent since 2005. The net result has been to knock Gazprom back on its heels. The WSJ reports that the negotiations with Bulgaria were heated, with Gazprom’s negotiators shouting in frustration on several occasions. . . . Putin’s hardball tactics in his near-abroad when Russia was energy top dog were instrumental in confirming him as an authoritarian bully in the minds of many Westerners. These tactics also inadvertently made Russia more vulnerable to shifts in the global energy market, with many of its main customers desperately seeking out alternative suppliers so that they would never find themselves backed into a corner again.” — The American Interest

    h/t Instapundit

    1. Vangel

      The US is not exporting gas to Europe. That tends one to question the ability of the author to distinguish reality from wishful thinking.

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