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Discussion: (11 comments)

  1. MacDaddyWatch

    The boom is on!

    But just like the army of Joe-6-Packs who missed the first 7000 points of the current DJIA catapult, there will always be a few nay sayers who will remain on the sidelines while denying that its actually really happening and remaining nattering nabobs of negativism.

  2. Texas RR Commission report: Interesting numbers Jan. ’06 – Dec. ’12 for oil output…

    65% increase in output?

    More Texas RR Comission oil & gas prodcution info here

  3. A link to a report on the longevity of the Barnett Shale, from the Alfred P Sloan foundation: It will produce commercially until 2050 and in 2030 will be producing 900 BCF a year down from 2 tcf this year: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/usa-natgas-barnett-idUSL1N0BSDKC20130228?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector&rpc=43

    1. Barnett will be a major play for a generation,
      study says

      WILL be? Well, then it’s 100% for sure. Nothing left to consider or discuss.

      Gotta love that level of certainty so far into the future.

      1. Gotta love that level of certainty so far into the future.

        National house prices do not go down, don’t you know? Eyeballs WILL be monetized. Shale gas WILL make money some time in the future. (Just like Pets.com.)

        1. Yes. Like global temperatures WILL be 8.154 degrees higher by the year 2100.

          1. Yes. Like global temperatures WILL be 8.154 degrees higher by the year 2100.

            I think that you meant 8.054 degrees higher in the year 2100.

          2. I think that you meant 8.054 degrees higher in the year 2100.

            Oh, you’re right. My bad. That higher number didn’t include the dramatic temperature constraining effect of California Prop 32. :)

    2. The near term peak in the Barnett shale gas was August 2011. It has declined ~7% through November 2012. There are larger percentage declines in the Woodford and Haynesville plays as the Marcellus and Eagle Ford ramp up. The Sloan Foundation may be too optimistic on decline rates.

      Scroll to the bottom and open figure data.

    3. A link to a report on the longevity of the Barnett Shale, from the Alfred P Sloan foundation: It will produce commercially until 2050 and in 2030 will be producing 900 BCF a year down from 2 tcf this year: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/usa-natgas-barnett-idUSL1N0BSDKC20130228?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector&rpc=43

      The average EUR for Barnett wells comes out at around 1.45 bcf (EIA or 1.0 bcf USGS I cited Arthur Berman in a previous posting in which Berman calculated an average EUR of around 1.3 bcf. The analysis seems to indicate that gas prices need to be $8.75 per million British thermal units for the recovery of full cycle costs or $5.65 per million British thermal units for well-only costs. This is much lower than the $4 per million British thermal units in the report that you cite, probably due to the fact that the industry is suggesting EURs of 2-2.65 bcf. If you believe the industry assumptions the Barnett could produce more. But if you look at the real world data and the actions of the companies in the industry, that seems to be unlikely. The production level seems to be reaching a plateau even though the number of producing wells is still rising. Given the move away from gas based plays in the industry we could be looking at a serious decline that becomes evident later this year.

      1. juandos

        Study vangel sites: Aug. 2011: U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost, a faily detailed report…

        This report seems more like a press release, not nearly as detailed as the article you site from Rigzone: Feb. 2013: Barnett Shale gas to remain profitable, study finds
        The study is predicated on natural gas prices reaching $4 per million British thermal units, about 50 cents above current prices, but well below 2008 prices of $12-plus…

        This begs the question to me at least, is this report from FuelFix merely a sales pitch or does it indicate a better study due to possibly newer technology at play?

        Feb. 2013Chart Industries sets 2012 sales records, poised to profit from shale gas development

        If‘ nothing else it seems that ancillary support services at least in the near term look to be profitable…

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