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Discussion: (22 comments)

  1. Much like Stephen Roach and Bill Gross have described the crack addicted markets to QE( and US to debt) we live in a drug induced economy.

    If you smoke enough the charts can tell you anything you want.

  2. Max Planck
    1. MacDaddyWatch

      How does your cut and paste job relate to PK’s conclusions? The subjects are jobs and an economy not growing fast enough to create them at a satisfactory and historical rate.

      Your cut and past does not address that. Does the SEIU pay you for that too?

  3. Those charts will only get uglier with the full on advent of ObamaCare…

    From the Orlando Sentinel: Darden tests limiting worker hours as health-care changes loom

    In an experiment apparently aimed at keeping down the cost of health-care reform, Orlando-based Darden Restaurants has stopped offering full-time schedules to many hourly workers in at least a few Olive Gardens, Red Lobsters and LongHorn Steakhouses…

    1. Max Planck

      Health insurance costs have tripled in the past decade. I know- I’m self employed, and I pay them. Of course, the complaints weren’t there before ACA, and now THAT is blamed for the increases, much as you now blame the deficits on Obama.

      Give Obama some credit- this was a tough issue no one had the stones to crack, and he went after it. Folks claim they want action- but they squeal when they get it.

      1. MacDaddyWatch

        But if the MAJORITY of folks don’t want a socialist agenda jammed down their throats by totalitarian fiat that brings 20 million new patients into health program with the same or a lesser number doctors, the resulting surge in premium costs and necessary rationing by a few unelected bureaucrats is NOT the “action” that they wanted. And killing the private insurance industry and competition is never the answer to anything.

        You are confusing “stones” with hemorrhoids. Let’s hope that the commission that you advocate knows the difference.

      2. Well max if you’re self-employed as you say why do you want federal interference in the medical market place?

        1. Max Planck

          Its not “federal interference” in the way you imagine it, and what does my employment status have to do with it anyway? The question is ridiculous.

          You people just hate for no reason- same deal with Dodd-Frank: they don’t know one thing about the law, but they hate on it because of complete ignorance and prejudice.

          Expanding the pool of workers is a smart move. Do you realize how lame Romney was to insist people just go to emergency rooms if they’re uninsured? When people do that, who pays?

          YOU DO. YOU’RE PAYING FOR THESE FREELOADERS.

          If everyone is covered, then rates should go down (for that metric alone.) Its interesting how the “conservatives” on this board speak of “base broadening” for taxes- but think its a bad idea for health insurance.

          I’ve known people who have suffered mightily for their inability to get coverage because of afflictions like diabetes. Why should they suffer when ANOTHER illness affects them simply because they were born with something like that? Again, this is barbaric. No developed economy treats its own citizens this way.

  4. MacDaddyWatch

    Do you know who I saw in those charts?

    I saw Big Bird, I saw Elmo….and I saw Obama and Michelle. Bend that.

    1. Big Bird and friends make enough money on their character and toy sales to fly on their own. Why should we continue to support public television when they would be just fine without government money. We should save that money and educate more illegal aliens. And while we are at this just open the southern border and escort in more uneducated non English speaking low economic ladder people. Just more Democrats to bribe for their votes .

  5. SeattleSam

    The statement has been made several times in the last 20 years that “the economy in Japan shows signs of picking up”. Despite the periodic spin, sluggish growth and the reasons behind it continue.

  6. I suggest that you read Mark Perry’s postings. According to him the economy is doing very well as the housing markets recover, employment is strengthening, and the Fed injects liquidity without creating any inflation.

    1. MacDaddyWatch

      #1: Jobs growth is at a snails pace–it will take more than a decade to close the jobs gap.

      #2: The fed is not injecting anything. Most of the QEs (about $2 trillion) remain parked at the Fed where it is held as “excess reserves.” It has not become part of M2 which is growing at a very small pace above its historical rate, its on the sidelines not working as part of our monetary base in circulation. The velocity of money remains moribund. If there were to be sudden surge in the preference for liquidity in the form of loans from banks, however, then it would become part of M2. It would be put to work. And that’s when inflation could become a serious problem–but not until then.

  7. MacDaddyWatch

    Here’s something from Stanford’s Hoover institute. And its on topic too–its about how the recent part-timer job surge is really bad news and why U-6 is stuck at nearly 15%.

    “…Joe LaVorgna, Chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that the part-time increase is likely due to the election. He offers two pieces of evidence. First, there was an unusually large gain in non-private employment, defined as total employment less “private industries” employment, which thus includes campaign workers who organize grass roots efforts, make phone calls, knock on doors, or help at political conventions. Second, there was an unusually large increase in employment in the 20 to 24 year age group—a typical age for campaign workers. Joe’s explanation is logical because both Democrats and Republicans are increasing such grass roots campaigns. State data—especially from the swing states—is needed to confirm LaVorgna’s hypothesis. But if true the increase in part time employment is not a sign of an improving economy: it implies that the jobs gain in September is largely temporary.

    Another view is that the increase in part-time employment is directly due to the weak recovery, and a sign that it is getting weaker. Surges in part time employment frequently occur in times of economic stress. Consider, for example, all the months in which part time employment rose by 500,000 or more. There are 13 such monthly increases in the BLS data base—Jan 1958, Mar 1958, Jan 1975, May 1980, Oct 1981, Feb 1982, Feb 1991, Sep 2001, Nov 2008, Dec 2008, Feb 2009, Sep 2010, Sep 2012. With two exceptions, every one of these occurred during recessions when the economy was sharply contracting. The two exceptions are in the current recovery, which is another measure of its weakness.

    I maintain that even more troublesome is that in the past 6-months of the recovery, the entire employment increase was more than accounted for by part time jobs: Total employment rose by 940,000 from March to September and part time employment rose by 941,000. This deterioration in the labor market is consistent with the dip in economic growth to 1.3 percent in the 2nd quarter. It too is not a sign that the economy is improving.

    So PK’s conclusion appears to be on target as relating to the subject jobs charts while Einstein’ NYTimes tortured cut and paste is irrelevant to the subject. Einstein couldn’t pass his own test for 15 minutes after he posts.

    1. Taylor made a rookie boo-boo. Part-time employment data is Table 6, not Table 9, in the Household Survey. For a professor at Stanford, a fellow at Hoover and a Romney advisor, he ain’t too bright.

      Part-time employment declined in September, 2012, by 26,000 to 27.731 million. Now within the part-time group, the voluntary/involuntary numbers changed.

      1. MacDaddyWatch

        It is you who made the boo boo…it is neither Table 9 or Table 6 as you erroneously state. The relevant part-time data for the BLS Household survey happens to be Table 8. And in that Table 8, the part-timer jump went from 8,031,000 in August, to 8613,000 part timers in September–an INCREASE of 582,000. As already reported by hundreds of sources.

        It is you who are the dimwit. You ran your mouth–and you got caught. John Taylor farts more intelligence than an economic imbecile like you. Financial illiterates like you should be banned from posting here.

        You must be the messiah’s economic advisor–he looked like a deer in the headlights the other night.

        Get lost, jackass.

      2. MacDaddyWatch

        This from the BLS Household Survey:

        “The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time
        job. (See table A-8.).”

        That’s right…the data is in Table 8..not Table 9 or Table 6 as you erroneously puke.

        1. Taylor states: The 582,000 increase in these part time jobs caused total employment to rise by 873,000

          So Taylor makes the rookie boo-boo and you fall for it hook, line, sinker with a brain fart on the side. Sorry about the dyslexia with the chart numbers. We are not talking about the division between involuntary (economic reasons) and voluntary (non-economic reasons) part-time. We are talking about part-time employment . A decline of 26,000 last month.

          You could have saved bandwidth and linked to this but you were too busy puking out your feeble brain, cut-and-paste boy, in who’s your daddy’s basement.

  8. Why would you draw a trend line from the beginning of arguably the longest and most robust employment expansion in the post-WWII era and then compare it to 2012? That Bush43 expansion from peak to peak looks fairly flat.

    If you just track the number of unemployeds, Bush43 never recovered. There were 6.023 million U-3s when he took office and 12.049 million U-3s when he left office, with a cycle trough of 6.631 million U-3s in March 2007.

    Just for the data hounds, there were 12.051 million U-3s in December 1982 (the peak in the iconic Ronnie era) and there are 12.088 million U-3s in September 2012. That is friggin’ amazing! Anyway, Jimmy P is onto something. The employment (unemployment) level is likely more important than the U-3 rate.

    1. MacDaddyWatch

      I hope you did more data drilling on this post than you did relative to mine.

      Or were you just typing with your tongue?

  9. Jon Murphy

    While the jobs market is improving steadily (at the bottom graph shows), there is still a long way to go and one simple and easy thing the federal, state, and local governments can do right now to to speed up this process:

    Reduce license requirements.

    See, I subscribe to the radical economic school of thought that says by making it easier for people to get jobs and start businesses, then the number of jobs and businesses being created will rise.

  10. MacDaddyWatch

    And just look at what Darden Restaurants started doing. They have 180,000 employees and they began cutting jobs in half in order to avoid ObamaCare cost hikes associated with full-time employees. Voila–two part time jobs are created and Darden ducks ObamaCare. Can you see the Obama 1/2 jobs tsunami coming in 2013?

    Of course the part-time workers make a lot less, so their count in the jobs report reduces the UR but its not backed by full-time incomes and spending. Its as phony as our Oval Office pretender.

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