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Discussion: (2 comments)

  1. What is the effect of suspending the Obamacare employer mandate for another year? Isn’t it a bit difficult to try to measure the impact of a mandate more than one year before it goes into effect? I don’t think we are going to see much better than anecdotal evidence for a while yet.

  2. The UC Berkeley study suggests Obamacare could well cause an increase in part-time work with an upper bound of 2 percentage points — or nearly two-thirds of the recession’s impact — but probably much less

    There are ~10 million persons (7.5% of working persons) that work 30-34 hours per week, which is the upper range of part-time workers surveyed by the BLS before the full time 35+ hours per week kicks in.

    Are the studies saying that:

    1. 2% of 10 million move from 30-35 hours per week to 25-29 hours per week, which is not a big deal, call it 200,000, or,

    2. 2 percentage point increase (from 7.5% to 9.5%), call it 2.6 million.

    There is no evidence in the data that point 1, let alone point 2, is happening in Q3 2013.

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