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Discussion: (8 comments)

  1. ….unintended positive consequences……natural market forces will always carry the day……..but put this proposition in front of Obama and he will cite government programs as the key driver…………America will succeed in spite of the morons in Washington….

  2. Combined with upstream activity, the entire unconventional oil and gas value chain currently supports more than 2.1 million jobs.

    North Dakota (ND) accounts for ~25% of the shale oil/gas production. ND has increased employment by 97,000.

    97,000 x 4 ND’s equals 400,000. Where are the other 1.7 million jobs?

    1. Just following up on the bull with some BLS data charted from FRED. Back of the envelope, oil and gas extraction jobs bottomed in 2003 at ~120,000 jobs. 2013 will average ~195,000 jobs, an increase of ~75,000 jobs.

      Some think that a 75,000 increase in extraction jobs creates an additional 2.025 million jobs. That a 28 times multiplier. That’s bull.

      1. drycreekboy

        Where does the study claim a 28X multiplier for each new extraction job in and of itself? I only looked at the summary at the landing page, and didn’t download any of the report sections, but all I see is the claim that “unconventional oil and gas activity” [e.g. fracking and such] has lots of beneficial downstream effects in the economy. That may or may not be true, but any beneficial effect such as a lower ceiling on energy costs, more transport demand for LNG and so on; these would presumably support higher employment, ceteris paribus. Again, that may or may not be the case, but it certainly isn’t prima facie BS claim.

        1. Where does the study claim a 28X multiplier for each new extraction job in and of itself?

          It doesn’t. But it is arithmetic. IHS Global are paid consultants to the energy biz and claim by bottom up inference that there is a 28x multiplier. I just call bull. I’ll accept a 6x multiplier (+2/- 2) multiplier range.

          Fracking has not yet created any notable downstream chemical manufacturing “renaissance” employment. Sure there is an increase in midstream truck, rail, barge, pipeline employment. And in the same breath there is a decrease in truck, rail, barge, pipeline import employment.

          1. drycreekboy

            Upon what actual variable does IHS claim a 28X multiplier, or are you just eager to hold on to your talking point?

      2. The Fred data set is under representing in a big way. The oil and gas employment base extends beyond oil and gas extraction. There are hundreds of thousands of jobs in manufacturing, government, civil and mechanical engineering, transportation, infrastructure, midstream collection and processing, and downstream refining that are primarily related to oil and gas development.

        For instance Colorado alone, which isn’t even in the top 5 among producing atates has more than 50,000 primary oil and gas jobs.

        http://www.coga.org/index.php/Newsroom/PressReleasesArticle/university_of_colorado_economic_study_2012#sthash.3bkEymNb.dpbs

  3. Oil & Gas has produced a lot more sustainable real jobs than the BO’s Alternative Flop Energy programs that created 0 jobs and burdened the taxpayers for $30 BILLION Dollars just to repay BO’s contributors. We need to remember the lefty crooks and put them in PRISON when the revolution wins!

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