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Discussion: (7 comments)

  1. The shale revolution is relatively new and recent. New refineries are being constantly built, and if the keystone xl pipeline is ever approved, it will create hundreds, if not thousands, of construction jobs. More pipelines could follow suit, as Americans and congress realize they are the safest, most efficient way to transport oil. More fracking jobs could be created as oil is discovered in more parts of the country, and especially if the export ban is lifted. The reason why the new oil boom has not had a greater effect on the economy is because it is so new. This is just the tip of the iceberg. The shale revolution will eventually have a much bigger effect on the US economy. However, you are completely right that oil alone cannot solve the numerous massive problems facing our country today economically. Whoever thinks that is incredibly naive.

    1. New refineries are being constantly built – NOT
      See http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=29&t=6 for US refinery construction details

      1. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303874504579376962979450296

        The article states that 18 new projects scattered across the country are going to help increase refining capacity to as much as 600,000 barrels a day.

        I never said that these refineries or expansions of current ones had to be completed and up and running. All these projects are probably still in the works, and might not be done for years.

  2. marmico

    A balanced piece from the AEI in contrast to the Perry’s cheerleading in the cubicle across the hall.

    At current flows of 8.6 mb/d, the oil boom is two thirds complete, assuming production peaks at the
    ~10 mb/d level in the 2016-2018 time frame as projected by the EIA.

  3. olympiapress

    You’re forgetting secondary impacts on the economy. If the U.S. again becomes a net exporter of oil, the dollar’s status as a reserve currency is preserved, which is otherwise a major freaking worry. Any estimates of when the boom will end (as opposed to, say, when certain smaller ND/TX producers will end) are likely to end up looking silly. Bakken producers have made dramatic leaps in terms of productivity, and that will only increase as the boom expands to other fields like CO, WY, MT and, eventually, CA. TX is probably doing even more, given growth in Eagle Ford and the Permian Basin, but I haven’t gotten as much info from those regions.

  4. Such a lack of understanding of economics! There is no one SINGLE silver bullet to fix the economy (sorry about the strained metaphor), but several will be required. Yes, cheaper and more available energy is one facet of the recovery process, but ambiguity about future regulation and taxation is another major factor that is keeping companies from pursuing growth and investment. In addition, crony capitalism has artificially boosted some aspects of the economy, but government investment is notoriously short sighted and doesn’t have a positive long term effect. It also has the effect of lifting up losers (Solyndra, GM) which causes detriment to independents who have to compete against companies that are artificially pumped up by the government.

    1. Your comments are exactly what I was thinking while reading this article.

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