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Discussion: (9 comments)

  1. Why is this news? Don’t we expect to see a bit of a recovery following a huge contraction, particularly when FHA is guaranteeing loans to anyone who is willing to buy a home and when the Fed is injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system?

  2. chuck martel

    Normal? Is the most expanded state of the housing bubble “normal”? Existing home sales in March of 1982 were 2 million units,
    in Sept. of 2005 7.25 million, dropping to 3.3 million in July of 2010. Monthly sales were above 5.5 million only from January 2002 until March of 2007. So what’s “normal”?

    http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/home-sales-existing.aspx?showCompleteHistory=true

    1. morganovich

      i do not think that is what they are doing.

      the bubble peaked at around 7 million in home sales. 5.5 seems like a reasonable “normal” figure to me.

  3. There is no such thing as “normal” when it comes to real estate transactions, spending, and/or construction. Housing is a standard of living choice not an investment. The rebound is due to government interference that is unsustainable. The greater fools theory in full effect.

  4. Jon Murphy

    Interesting inforgraphic, that’s for sure.

    It looks like that Delinquency & Foreclosure Rate is really thing thing holding housing back.

    1. It looks like that Delinquency & Foreclosure Rate is really thing thing holding housing back“…

      But not the CRA?

  5. morganovich

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/new-home-sales-and-distressing-gap.html

    the one metric that is not showing this sort of recovery seems to be new home sales.

    they have maybe recovered 11 or 12% of the drop from a “normal” level which seems to be about 900k.

    i suspect this has do do with the build vs buy trade off.

    if existing homes are too much cheaper than new ones, no one builds.

    i suspect there may be an inflection point where this flips back over, but i have no idea just where that point is.

    1. Well m if the St. Louis Fed knows what its talking about there doesn’t seem to be that much of an improvement but some is better than none I guess…

  6. Joe Sprocket

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