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Discussion: (14 comments)

  1. Jon Murphy

    This is indeed good news. The good news is US economy is slowly but surely expanding, positive indications are coming out of China, and rebounds in SE Asia and Korea, as well as Brazil are evident. Japan will hold things back. Europe will not necessarily be a drag, but they will not contribute much this year.

    All this will lead to steady improvement in the global economic picture.

    1. Agreed. News of the emerging economies and their gains in productivity and trade are especially encouraging.

  2. PeakTrader

    There remains a huge world output gap. The global economy, like the U.S., is in depression.

    And, while the U.S. made some progress getting out of the economic “rut,” the problem is the rut is much deeper.

    According to the Conference Board – Global Economic Outlook 2013, January 2013 update:

    “The global economy has yet to shake off the fallout from the crisis of 2008-2009. Global growth dropped to almost 3 percent in 2012 [from 3.6% in 1996-2005, with 3.3% growth in the U.S., subpar 2.4% growth in greater Europe and 1.0% anemic growth in Japan], which indicates that about a half a percentage point has been shaved off the long-term trend since the crisis emerged. This slowing trend will likely continue.”

    1. Jon Murphy
      1. PeakTrader
    2. PeakTrader

      Also, I may add, percentages can be misleading.

      When per capita income or output increases 10% on $3,000, that’s a $300 gain.

      When it increases 2% on $50,000, that’s a $1,000 gain.

      Growth increases at an increasing rate and then increases at a decreasing rate.

      1. PeakTrader

        And depletion increases at an increasing rate, e.g. 100 barrels taken out when there are 1,000 barrels left is 10%, 100 barrels taken out when there are 500 barrels left is 20%, or increasingly fewer barrels are taken out.

      2. Jon Murphy

        Hey, you’re the admitted liar. Why should we believe anything you say or trust any of your sources?

        1. PeakTrader

          Jon Murphy, lying about me doesn’t support your position.

          1. Jon Murphy

            Forget yourself so soon?

            Let’s remind people what you said about yourself just three days ago:

            I stated before:

            I know someone who runs a business delivering baggage at airports.

            When potential employees ask how much they can make, he says there are two or three people who make $150,000 a year.

            After people are hired, they find out they actually make less than $10 a hour and quit after two or three weeks.

            The owner and his son make $150,000 each.

            To follow-up:

            If I [PeakTrader] was advising the business (for a fee), I’d find ways to “string-along” the employees longer, e.g. say it’s a slow season or there should be some big contracts soon.


            Your arguments are seriously in question when you admit you are a liar.

          2. PeakTrader

            You’re the one lying. How do you know it wasn’t a slow season or there shouldn’t be some big contracts soon?

            Creating or taking market share, for example, isn’t a lie.

          3. How do you know it wasn’t a slow season or there shouldn’t be some big contracts soon?

            We don’t know, but it doesn’t matter. You suggested you would “string along” the employees a little longer. That says it all.

          4. PeakTrader

            The truth or a lie doesn’t matter?

            And what does “all” say?

  3. Given global central banker’s passion for fiat currency devaluation … which if done uniformly leaves exchange rates unaffected but inflates commercial asset values … nominal data are uniformly worthless. Given constant governmental tampering with inflation metrics, nominal data from from “official” sources is propaganda.

    “Real” data, discounted for an honest measure of the devaluation of a non-fiat currency-equivalent, such as a market-priced basket of industrial and precious metals & materials like oil and lumber, would not produce such fanciful charts as this one.

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