Research Fellow John C. Fortier

New Hampshire has always been a place for political junkies, but throw in shifting demographics, a moving primary date, and competitive Senate and House seats, and in 2008 you have the perfect political storm.

This year, national Democrats have jumped the Nevada Caucus ahead of New Hampshire. While New Hampshire would still technically be the first primary (behind two caucus states), don’t expect the Granite State to sit still. The New Hampshire primary was once held in March, then migrated to February, and then, in 2004, to late January. New Hampshire and Iowa might move their contests to very early January or even before Christmas 2007. Ho, ho, ho!

As for the primary itself, in 2000 Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) used a convincing win to propel himself ahead of George W. Bush. Only with a retooling of his message and a furious push in South Carolina was Bush able to get back on top. This time, McCain’s top two rivals have New Hampshire strength. Neighboring state Gov. Mitt Romney has name recognition and campaign troops to send across the border. Rudy Giuliani is the sort of Northeast social moderate that could play well to New Hampshirites’ libertarian streak. In a role reversal, it may be McCain who looks to his strength in the South after an inconclusive early start.

On the Democratic side, it was New Hampshire that resurrected Bill Clinton in 1992, after rumors of an affair with Gennifer Flowers had damaged him. Clinton actually finished second to Paul Tsongas, but by managing expectations, he declared himself the “comeback kid.” For Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), the parallel she hopes to avoid is that of Edwin Muskie, a frontrunner opposed to an unpopular war but unable to match the anti-war fever of a rival. George McGovern’s strong second-place showing bounced Muskie from the race. Will Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) or John Edwards play McGovern to Clinton’s Muskie?

In the general election, New Hampshire has moved from reliably Republican territory to the ultimate swing state. From 1948 to 1988, New Hampshire only once voted for the Democratic nominee, but Clinton won it twice, and Bush won in 2000 but lost in 2004.

New Hampshire’s population growth has occurred in its southern part, where many communities are exurban satellites of Boston. These new residents agree with the anti-tax ethos of New Hampshire, but they are uneasy with the social conservatism of the national Republican Party.

In 2006, New Hampshire surged sharply toward Democrats. Democratic Gov. John Lynch was reelected with 74 percent of the vote. Both houses of the state legislature are now controlled by Democrats for the first time since the Civil War. And Democrats knocked off Republican moderates to take both seats in the House of Representatives.

Opposition to the war played a strong role in Democrats’ 2006 victories, and in 2008 the war will loom large in congressional races. Sen. John Sununu is up for reelection. Sununu and fellow New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg are the only two Republicans representing a state that John Kerry won who voted against the cloture motion on the anti-surge resolution. On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter was a surprise winner and is the strongest anti-war Democrat of the class of 2006. Her district leans Republican, and Jeb Bradley, whom she defeated, will challenge her. Will the anti-war winds blow as strongly for her this time? Freshman Rep. Paul Hodes (D) may also face a tough race in the slightly Democratic-leaning 2nd district.

That’s a lot of excitement for a small state.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.