Resident Scholar Gary J. Schmitt

With almost clockwork precision, every 50 years for the past two centuries China has appeared to be at a "hinge" moment in its history. Once again that is the case, as China stands poised at the verge of a return to great power status. By all appearances it is already, or soon will be, a dominant player in East Asia--whether on economic, political, or security issues--and is playing an increasing global role. And, in decades ahead, China could even present a challenge to US primacy.

Indeed, the rise of China is the principal strategic fact of the 21st century. Where China goes--and how fast--will have a significant, if not defining, impact on the shape of the international system and will exert considerable influence on the future of US security and prosperity. The rise of China presents challenges to the United States across several dimensions of power (military, diplomatic, political, economic, even cultural), and there is virtually no issue critical to America's future--global economic growth, nonproliferation, controlling potential pandemics, climate change, energy security--that is not affected by the US-China relationship.

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Gary J. Schmitt is a resident scholar and the director of the Program on Advanced Strategic Studies at AEI. Michael Schiffer is a program officer at the Stanley Foundation.