Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

Will Warner replace Warner? Mark Warner gives Democrats another great shot at a Senate seat pick-up. Democrats' confidence stems from the former governor's strength, but also from their sense that Virginia is becoming less Republican. Warner is the early favorite to win the race, but Virginia may not have changed as much as some pundits claim. And a Rep. Tom Davis candidacy would make a competitive race, turning normal politics on its head with a Republican from Northern Virginia and a Democrat with strength in the state's southwest.

The decision for Mark Warner to run was a no-brainer. Some had speculated that he might hold out for the vice presidential nomination, but the veep choice won't be made for nearly a year, and there was no guarantee that he would be the one.

And Democrats can find no better candidate to win in Virginia. Warner won the 2001 governor's race when Republicans were riding high, and he retains stratospheric favorability ratings.

Warner's 2001 election initiated a string of Democratic victories that continued with his lieutenant governor, Tim Kaine, winning the governorship in 2005 and Jim Webb knocking off George Allen (R) for Senate in 2006.

These victories have led some to opine that Virginia is moving toward the Democratic camp--especially Northern Virginia, which was once reliably Republican suburban country.

George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004. But he won Fairfax County (which makes up about 15 percent of Virginia's electorate) by 1 percent in 2000, but lost it by 8 percent in 2004. Similarly, he won fast-growing Loudoun County by 15 percent in 2000, but only by 12 percent in 2004. Bush, however, did make up Northern Virginia losses with better margins in other parts of the state.

Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb won Fairfax County by 22 and 19 percent, respectively, and both did the previously unimaginable in winning Loudoun County.

While in one sense Mark Warner prompted this Democratic trend, his election win in 2001 looked very different than Kaine's or Webb's subsequent victories. Warner did reasonably well in Northern Virginia, but he won Fairfax by only 10 percentage points, and he lost Loudoun by eight, significantly behind the margins of Kaine and Webb.

What Warner did, however, was especially impressive for a Virginia Democrat. He won in Southwest Virginia. Warner had spent a lot of time in this region in developing his cellular telephone business, and he believed that a Democrat could appeal to rural southern voters. His positions on guns, affinity for NASCAR and intense focus on the region won him a surprising share of votes. Take, for example, Appomattox County. George Bush won Appomattox by 33 percentage points in 2004, but in 2001, Warner won the county.

Many of Warner's backers think that he can have his cake and eat it too--that he will again perform well in the Southwest, but that he will also get as big a vote as Kaine and Webb in Northern Virginia. But it will be hard for Warner to pull this off. Appealing to one region may mean turning off the other.

This regional quandary may be deepened if Republicans nominate Rep. Tom Davis, who must get past former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). Davis is a moderate Republican from Fairfax County who has won in this blue-trending suburban territory since 1994. 

A Davis-Warner race could scramble traditional regional voting patterns. And at this point, it is not clear who would prevail in a battle of rural vs. suburban, NASCAR vs. HOV lanes, Virginia Tech vs. George Mason.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.