Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

It is hard to imagine that a state as Republican as Nebraska would have a competitive Senate race, but the retirement of Chuck Hagel (R) opens up that possibility.

Nebraska is a deep-red state. It has only voted once for a Democrat in the past 17 presidential elections, in Lyndon Johnson's 1964 blowout of Barry Goldwater.  In 2004, it was the fourth-reddest state voting for George W. Bush over John Kerry, doing so by 33 percentage points and trailing only Wyoming, Idaho and Utah in its Republican margin. In addition to the right-leaning electorate, the Nebraska Republican Party is strong, not riven by divisions between social and economic conservatives as is neighboring Kansas.

With such a Republican pedigree, it is a marvel that Democrats ever win here. But win they have in a number of key statewide offices. The last time Republicans held both Senate seats were the years before Roman Hruska's retirement in 1976. Since that time, Nebraska Democrats have run a number of moderate-to-conservative candidates who have figured out how to win Senate seats and the governorship. Democratic success has come in the form of four men: James Exon, Bob Kerrey and Ben Nelson--who collectively served as governor for 20 years and senator for another 36--along with Edward Zorinksy, who served 10 years in the Senate.

The history of Democratic competitiveness in statewide races, together with the possible candidacy of Bob Kerrey, give Democrats hope in this Republican stronghold.

The race for the open Hagel seat could be a battle of the titans--former governor and Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns on the Republican side and Bob Kerrey on the Democratic.

Johanns was elected to two terms as governor. After a solid eight-point win in 1998, he was reelected in a landslide in 2002 with 69 percent of the vote. His subsequent service as U.S. secretary of agriculture only enhances his status in farm-belt Nebraska. Republicans have other strong potential candidates, like Jon Bruning, the attorney general, who was threatening to give Hagel a competitive primary challenge. But Johanns is by far the strongest candidate Republicans could field.

Just as Republicans are thrilled with Johanns's entry in the race, Democrats would be ecstatic if Bob Kerrey runs. His ability to win in Nebraska is unquestionable. In fact, he has never lost a statewide race. He won governorship in 1982 and left voluntarily with high favorability ratings. He won a Senate seat in 1988 by 15 percentage points and won reelection by 10 points. Further bolstering Kerrey is the favorable national climate for Democrats and his ability to speak credibly on the Iraq war--he was an original supporter of the war, a later critic and also a wounded military hero.

At the end of the day, there is a fairly simple election dynamic to this race. Mike Johanns would be favored over any Democrat except for Bob Kerrey, and Bob Kerrey would be favored over any Republican except for Mike Johanns. What complicates this electoral calculus is Bob Kerrey's decision whether to get in the race.

The surprising X-factor is a previously unknown Asian small businessman from Southern California--Norman Hsu. Hsu's name burst into the news as the corrupt donor to Hillary Clinton's campaign. But Hsu is even more connected to Kerrey; he donated to and sat on the board of the New School of Social Research, where Kerrey served as president.

Hsu is unlikely to hurt Clinton's presidential campaign, but if he keeps Kerrey from running or damages his candidacy, Democrats will remember him as the man who cost them a good shot at a Nebraska Senate seat.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.