Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

For women, 2008 is shaping up to be the year that wasn't. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has come closer to the presidency than any woman has, but the odds are that she will not be the Democratic nominee. And in Congress, where the number of women has increased each election for the past 30 years, that rise may come to a halt in November.

Women in the 110th Congress are on top of the world. There are more female legislators than ever: 16 senators and 69 House members at the start of the Congress. And for the first time in history, a woman, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), wields the House speaker's gavel.

The touchstone of statistics on women in Congress is the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. CAWP figures show that there have been years of big gains for female candidates, such as 1992, dubbed the Year of the Woman, with gains of three women in the Senate and 19 in the House.

But in addition to the big gains in a few years, the number of women in Congress is remarkable for its steady year-to-year rise. There has not been a net loss of women since a small blip downward in the 1978 elections. And in the 30-year period since, the number of women has more than quadrupled--and it has more than doubled since 1992. Contrast this with the number of African-Americans in Congress, which stood at 39 after the 1992 elections and is at 40 today.

But 2008 does not look like a banner year for women. Fewer women are running in primaries, and there are fewer likely female nominees. In 2006, 211 House women filed for primaries. That number will drop below 200 this year. The Senate drop-off is even more remarkable. In 2006, 24 women filed for races, but only 10 are considering running in 2008. All of this means that the number of women in Congress is not likely to increase much, if at all, in the 111th Congress.

In the Senate, the realistic range of possibilities is somewhere between a net gain and a net loss of two seats. Two female incumbents face tough races: Sens. Mary L. Landrieu (D-La.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine). Both are likely to face off against male opponents in the fall. And two women challengers have chances to take Senate seats now held by men. Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor of New Hampshire, is running against the Senate's perhaps most vulnerable incumbent, Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), in a rematch from 2002.

In New Mexico, Republican Rep. Heather Wilson is a strong candidate but must climb two mountains to enter the Senate chamber. First, she must beat her Republican House colleague, Rep. Steve Pearce, in the June 3 primary and then face off against another fellow member from New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Tom Udall, in the general election.

In the House, Donna Edwards is likely to replace Rep. Albert Wynn, having trounced the seven-term incumbent in the Feb. 12 Maryland Democratic primary. But balancing that gain is the death of Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.) and subsequent replacement by her grandson, Andre Carson.

Four women are voluntarily leaving the House, either through retirement or to seek higher office. All of the likely candidates to replace Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) are men. Wilson's Albuquerque-based seat is being contested by men on the Republican side and women on the Democratic side. Likewise, Rep. Deborah Pryce's seat in and around Columbus, Ohio, could plausibly be won by Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy or Republican Steve Stivers. Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin's district, covering the entire state of Wyoming, features a possible GOP nominee in Cynthia Lummis.

There are also a number of potentially vulnerable female incumbents. Republicans are targeting four female Democratic freshmen: Reps. Nancy Boyda (Kan.), Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.), Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.). Boyda could face Republican Lynn Jenkins, but the others are likely to face male challengers. Republicans also have Rep. Melissa L. Bean (D-Ill.) on their target list.

Republican incumbents facing tough races include Reps. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.) and Jean Schmidt (Ohio), but they will square off against female challengers, so there will be no net change. Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) will face a challenge from a male opponent.

As for chances of open-seat pickups for women, the district of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.) has a strong female nominee and no Republican. The districts of Reps. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) and Mike Ferguson (R-N.J.), who are also retiring, could end up with women running on both sides. Female Democratic candidates are fighting for their party's nomination in the districts of retiring Reps. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) and Tom Davis (R-Va.).

Among Democratic freshmen, Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.) and John Yarmuth (Ky.) will face rematches against the incumbent members they defeated in 2006, Melissa Hart and Ann Northup, respectively. Freshman Reps. Tim Mahoney (Fla.), Paul Hodes (N.H.) and Harry E. Mitchell (Ariz.) could face strong female challengers.

On the Republican side, Rep. Dave Reichert (Wash.) will face off against Democratic challenger Darcy Burner, whom he narrowly defeated two years ago. In Florida, Democrat Christine Jennings is running again against freshman GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan (Fla.). And Democrats are enthused about female challengers to Republican Reps. Sam Graves (Mo.) and Tom Feeney (Fla.).

The bottom line is that the seats House women will gain and lose are likely to be fewer than 10 in each category, and the net gain is likely to be close to zero.

America still trails far behind most European countries in the percentage of women in the legislative branch. Don't expect 2008 to close that gap.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.