Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

The long, bloody Democratic contest, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy and doubts about Barack Obama's appeal to white working-class voters have made some Republicans almost giddy about their prospects in the fall. While it is true that John McCain may be able to run ahead of his own party, the generic numbers are almost universally bad for Republicans. One need only consider Republican losses in two recent special elections and the possibility of another to see that there is a Democratic wind that Republican congressional candidates will have to battle in the fall.

Democrats are rightly crowing about their performance in House special elections. A month ago, Democrat Bill Foster took former Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in a northern Illinois district that President Bush won with 55 percent of the vote in 2004. On Saturday, Democrat Don Cazayoux took former Republican Rep. Richard Baker's district in Louisiana, which Bush had won with 59 percent of the vote. And in Mississippi last week, Democrats almost picked up Sen. Roger Wicker's old seat, which Bush had won with 62 percent of the vote. Democrat Travis Childers finished ahead of Republican Greg Davis but just short of winning a majority, so the race is headed for a runoff next week.

These wins are extraordinary because it is rare for seats in special elections to change parties, and even more rare for them to go so much against their traditional partisan leanings.

Since 1991, there have been 65 special elections. Only 10--just over 15 percent--have changed party hands. Open seats in general elections are much more likely to change party hands. Since 1990, there have been 344 open-seat elections, and 34 percent have changed. Special elections often have low turnout, and voters usually favor the party that is dominant in the district.

The recent Democratic performance in special elections in Republican districts is even more remarkable if you consider that, of those special elections that have caused a district to change hands in recent years, there are only three cases in which the party winning the special election was clearly the minority party in the district. In 1995, Republican Tom Campbell won the Northern California seat Norm Mineta vacated to take a private-sector job, in a district former President Bill Clinton had won by 16 percentage points in 1992. In 2004, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin replaced Republican Bill Janklow in South Dakota's at-large statewide seat, while Democrat Ben Chandler took the seat Republican Ernie Fletcher vacated upon becoming governor of Kentucky--both in districts that had voted heavily for Bush in 2000.

Most of the special elections that changed parties occurred around the time of the Republican win of 1994. That year, leading up to the November election, two open seats switched from Democratic to Republican hands. Frank Lucas replaced Glenn English in Oklahoma, and in Kentucky, Ron Lewis won the seat of the late Rep. William Natcher. In the two years after their sweep of Congress, Republicans continued to do well, with Campbell replacing Mineta in late 1995 and Republican Bill Redmond, in early 1997, replacing Democrat Bill Richardson, who left Congress for a position in the Clinton administration.

The only other special election that Republicans have taken from Democratic hands in this 17-year period is when Republican Randy Forbes was elected in 2001 to replace the late Democratic Rep. Norm Sisisky.

And Democratic wins in special elections have been a recent trend. When Republican Silvio Conte died in 1991, Democrat John W. Olver replaced him in a special election. After that win, it was 13 years before Democrats won another seat from a Republican in a special election.

So do the Democratic victories and the near-win in the Mississippi special election portend doom for Republicans in the fall? Not necessarily. In 2004, Herseth Sandlin and Chandler took seats from Republicans in Republican-leaning districts in special elections, but that did not signify a strong trend, as the House stayed in Republican hands.

It is also true that Democrats won in part this year because they had strong candidates or their Republican challengers were flawed. But good times for a party usually mean that it has had success recruiting candidates. Bad times scare away talented candidates.

Individual candidates may buck the general tide, but today, when voters are asked which party should control Congress, they answer "Democrats" by a 10-point margin. They prefer a generic Democrat to a generic Republican by about the same margin. Bush still has a job approval rating at 30 percent or lower, and nearly 80 percent of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track.

Without such a wind at their backs, Democrats would not be able to compete in these special elections in very Republican districts. And unless the wind dies down, Republicans will find themselves fighting hard in November to keep GOP seats in their column.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.