Senior Fellow Karlyn Bowman

Election demography is not destiny.

Issues matter, candidates matter and the mood matters. This campaign has been extraordinary in many ways, and it appears poised to alter some familiar demographic patterns. Given the electorate's deep dissatisfaction, any big group movements we see on election night should be interpreted with care.

In February, the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution held a conference on election demographics. (I was an organizer of the conference.) This month, based on the conference papers, the Brookings Institution Press published Red, Blue & Purple America: The Future of Election Demographics.

Both parties must understand the changes in the political landscape for future success. What follows is a quick summary of some trends the authors find most consequential politically.

The Youth Vote: We care about the views of young people because they often lead change. Today, 18- to 29-year-olds are supporting Barack Obama by huge margins. Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center reports that the millennials (those born after 1977) are much more diverse than their older cohorts. Most grew up in environments where their mothers worked full time outside the home. Fewer of them grew up in two-parent homes. On many social issues, they are more liberal than older generations. Will Obama be able to cement the allegiance of this new political generation, just as Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan did with earlier generations?

The Suburban Vote: Rob Lang, a professor of urban planning at Virginia Tech, and his co-authors note that it was once reasonable to assume that "Republican voters predominated in the suburbs" but that these areas are now "highly contested." Many older, once-Republican suburbs are now trending Democratic, especially in Pennsylvania. The Democrats' success in 2006 came when they pushed out beyond their core strength in cities and inner suburbs into the outer suburbs and exurbs. Can they do it again?

The Hispanic Vote: The Pew Hispanic Center reported this week that "Hispanics accounted for just over half of the overall population growth in the United States since 2000--a significant new demographic milestone for the nation's largest minority group." The demographer Bill Frey cautions that only 19 out of every 100 Hispanics are likely to vote this year. Hispanics are younger, some aren't citizens and many aren't registered. Today they lean decisively toward Obama. Will their growing demographic clout turn into greater electoral clout on Election Day and beyond, and, if so, who will they favor?

The Religious Vote: E. J. Dionne of Brookings and John Green of Pew discuss the growth of two groups: the pure seculars or religiously unaffiliated, who make up a very small base, and the deeply religious, who form a larger base. Obama may not have made inroads within the solidly Republican evangelical groups, but he is doing well with the seculars.

The White Working-Class Vote: Ruy Teixeira, the volume editor, and his co-author, Alan Abramowitz, write about the decline of the white working class--think Joe the Plumber--over time. For cultural and economic reasons, the white working class has been cool to Democratic presidential candidates, and Al Gore and John Kerry lost its vote by significant margins. In recent polls, Obama has cut that deficit. The growing upper class is socially liberal and economically conservative, posing a challenge for both parties.

While there has been impressive continuity in the Democratic and Republican coalitions over the past 20 years, this election may signal big changes to come in any or all of these crucial groups. We might be seeing an emerging Democratic majority, as Teixeira has suggested. Or, instead, will these election results simply serve as a commentary on a deeply dissatisfied electorate and not foretell change for the long term?

Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI.