The charts, graphs, and tables used in presenting this speech are available here as an Adobe Acrobat PDF.

Nicholas Eberstadt presented a speech in Herzliya, Israel, at the Sixth Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel’s National Security, January 21-24, 2006.

What are the major strategic trends in global population? Four stand out for their significance.  The world’s nations are gradually moving towards “sub-replacement fertility” as fertility rates decline and populations age. At the same time, we are seeing sustained reversals in health progress, especially in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin American & Caribbean, and the Commonwealth of Independent States--indeed, Zimbabwe has a higher male death rate today for most age categories than France in 1944. Sex ratios at birth are also seeing a marked rise, as recorded male births outstrip female births. Finally, the United States is unique for its record of “demographic exceptionalism,” as it is bucking all of these global trends.

Nicholas Eberstadt is the Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy at AEI.