Research Fellow  John C. Fortier

Few Senate races could have greater impact than the matchup between appointed Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). If Musgrove wins, Democrats will add yet another seat to their majority. But more importantly, his victory would tell us something about Barack Obama's effect on black-white politics and Democrats' ability to win in the South.

It is a sign of Republican gloom that a Senate race in Mississippi appears to be highly competitive. The last time a nonincumbent Democrat was elected to the Senate from the Magnolia State was 1947, when John C. Stennis won the seat that he then held for 40 years.

The state does have vestiges of its conservative Democratic past; Democrats still control the state legislature, and both parties have held the governorship in recent years. But in most other respects, Mississippi has become a reliably Republican state. President Bush won the state by 20 percentage points in 2004, and Trent Lott and Thad Cochran easily defended their Senate seats in recent elections. Few expected that Lott's retirement and the subsequent appointment of well-regarded Wicker, a House member for 13 years, would give Democrats much of an opening. But a combination of a good Democratic year, the recruitment of Musgrove and the wild card of Obama's effect on black turnout have made the race too close to call.

Mississippi is 36 percent African-American, the highest percentage of any state. It also displays some of the country's most racially polarized voting patterns. In 2004, according to exit polls, Bush won 85 percent of the white vote, while Democrat John F. Kerry took 90 percent of the black vote.

Non-Southern Democratic nominees previously have fared so poorly among white voters that they have had little chance of winning in Mississippi.

It is possible for a Mississippi Democrat to win in a statewide election, but it would likely require 30 percent of the white vote along with nearly the entire black vote. In 2003, Musgrove lost his reelection bid for governor to current Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican. Musgrove took about 22 percent of the white vote, and lost the election 53 percent to 46 percent. In 1999, when Musgrove beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker in one of the closest races in Mississippi history, he performed even better among white voters, running well ahead of typical Democratic performance in Northeast Mississippi, a Republican stronghold.

The formula that has sometimes worked for Mississippi Democrats is directly at odds with Obama's strategy for putting Southern states in play. Obama and his aides have made the case that Obama could increase black turnout so substantially--by 30 percent or more--that Southern states with large African-American populations would become competitive even without much of a change in the white turnout. But the math here is much harder than the Obama campaign asserts. If you take the 2004 presidential election results, increase the black vote by 30 percent and assume that the white vote stays the same, Obama would still lose Mississippi by more than 100,000 votes. And most analysts think that a 30 percent increase in the black vote is extremely optimistic. Obama will surely draw African-Americans to the polls in record numbers, but even a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in African-American votes would be historic. Add to that Obama's problems in attracting white Mississippi voters even in the Democratic primary, where he attracted only a quarter of white Democrats.

What Musgrove hopes is that he can have the best of both worlds. He can run as a more conservative Democrat picking up moderate white voters, just as Travis Childers did in the House special election to replace Roger Wicker. But Musgrove might also benefit from Obama energizing and turning out the black vote even while Musgrove keeps his distance from the presidential nominee.

Think about what would have happened in Musgrove's race against Barbour in 2003 when Musgrove drew 22 percent of the white vote. If he had also had a 15 percent boost in the black vote that year, the race would have been very close, and he certainly could have won without breaking the 30 percent threshold that Democrats typically need to win statewide.

But while Musgrove might benefit from the Obama turnout effect, not all is dim for Roger Wicker. His poll numbers have been hurt by the fact that he represented only one-quarter of the state, while Musgrove has held statewide office. A May poll showed Wicker's name recognition at 70 percent, with Musgrove's over 90 percent. As the state gets to know Wicker, he may pick up traditional Republican voters in regions outside his congressional district, and because he hails from Northeast Mississippi, he may cut into Musgrove's white support there.

The most likely scenario is that the race between Musgrove and Wicker will come down to the wire.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.