Senior Fellow Karlyn Bowman

In a September Gallup/USA Today poll, a third of Americans said their taxes would increase if John McCain were elected president. Fifty percent said they would remain the same. Meanwhile, the public had a very different impression of what would happen under an Obama administration: 54% said their taxes would go up and 27% said they would stay the same.

Hardly anyone believed taxes would go down under either administration. In another Gallup/USA Today poll, nearly three-quarters of respondents believed their taxes would increase as a result of the government's solution to Wall Street's problems.

In these anxious economic times, when Americans are expecting a tax increase from Barack Obama, why isn't this issue--traditionally a Republican strength--working better for John McCain?

The polls provide three possible explanations. The first has to do with general concern about the economy that overshadows concern about taxes. In 1939, the Gallup Organization began asking people a simple question: What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Since then, the question has been asked hundreds of times by pollsters, and the results provide a unique historical record of Americans' concerns. It's not surprising that in Gallup's September survey of this question, the economy outdistanced all other issues. Sixty percent spontaneously mentioned it, and only 1% volunteered taxes as an answer.

As a stand-alone issue nationally, taxes have not been a priority for at least a quarter century. In January, when the Pew Research Center asked people about their top concerns for the president and Congress, "strengthening the economy" headed the list of the 21 issues tested. "Reducing middle-class taxes" ranked 15th, and "making recent federal income tax cuts permanent" ranked dead last. In the past few years, polls have shown that Americans are much more concerned about their local property taxes than about federal income taxes.

Taxes may not be a top-tier issue in the polls today for another reason. Fewer Americans are even paying federal income taxes. According to IRS, 33% of households that filed federal income tax returns owed no federal income tax. That's 45.6 million returns out a total of 138.4 million. Another 15 million didn't file a return at all. Taken together, that means that about 40% of all households had no tax liability in 2006. These households may simply be less concerned about federal taxes, deflating overall concern about the issue.

Americans also have more confidence in Obama's ability to handle the economy. In the latest CNN/ORC poll, Obama led McCain by 11 points in that field. On taxes, however, neither candidate has a lead. In the September ABC News/Washington Post poll, 45% trusted Obama more, 44% trusted McCain. In the October NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 40% said Obama would do a better job, 40% said McCain.

The third reason the issue may not be working in McCain's favor has do to with the credibility of tax promises. Trust in tax promises from Washington is low. People simply don't believe they will actually see a tax cut or that their taxes won't go up. In polls over the past decade, Republicans have had a small but consistent edge on "holding taxes down," or "holding the line" on taxes, suggesting that the public still sees them as more fiscally conservative than the Democrats. Saying he will hold the line on tax increases is a stronger argument for McCain because it is more believable.

Voters who say taxes are the most important issue to them on Election Day vote for Republicans candidates by substantial margins--but the proportion of the population that gives that response is small. In a national exit poll from 2004, 5% of voters said taxes were the most important issue to them when they cast their votes. They voted for Bush over Kerry by 57% to 43%. But far more voters said other issues were more important to them. Those are the voters McCain isn't winning.

Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI.