Resident Scholar Leon Aron

Leon Aron responds to a letter to the editor about his article "What Does Putin Want?" which appeared in the December 2006 issue of Commentary magazine.

 Click here to read the letter that prompted Aron's response.

That Russian liberals (read: "intelligentsia") have been politically inept and sectarian is one of the constant tragedies of Russian history. Within this sad tradition, however, the post-Soviet liberals have not fared badly at all. Unlike the Mensheviks, the Constitutional Democrats (Kadets), and the Socialist Revolutionaries (SR's) of 1917-18, they did not give way to a dictatorship in the wake of a democratic revolution, and for ten years they kept Russia the freest it has ever been.

Indeed, to add another item to Mr. Nichols's reasons for optimism, it was during the 1990's that Russia came closest to political stalemate, which has often been noted as a necessary condition for a transition from authoritarianism to democracy. There was a complex, multilevel, and almost evenly matched contest between a leftist, nationalist plurality in the parliament and a liberal, internationalist executive; between Moscow and the provinces; between the state and the "oligarchs"; and among the oligarchs themselves. Such a balance of powers encourages the pursuit of consensus by way of democratic politics.

The essence of the Putin restoration has been the erosion of these opposing forces, with victories of the executive over the parliament; the seat of power over the regions; and the state over private wealth. But as opinion polls in Russia indicate again and again, these victories are neither complete nor (by many measures) irreversible. In short, democracy in Russia has a future because it has had a past--a short and highly imperfect past, but a real one.

Leon Aron is a resident scholar at AEI.