Resident Scholar  Michael Auslin

With the elections of Nicolas Sarkozy in France and Angela Merkel in Germany, two important countries are turning away from anti-Americanism. But now one of America's most important Asian allies, Japan, may reject a leader who is steadfastly committed to expanding relations with Washington.

As recently as late May, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seemed well positioned for parliamentary elections three weeks from now. These seemed destined to be a referendum on his leadership, and a convincing win by his Liberal Democratic Party would have dispelled doubts about his ability to govern after a half decade of rule by the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi.

Now the vote likely will pivot on scandal and mismanagement of the country's enormous pension system. This is a shame. The election really should be about Mr. Abe's vision for a more activist international role for Japan.

Mr. Abe's problems are in part self-made. This week, his defense minister resigned after stating that the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were unavoidable; earlier, he had called the Iraq War a mistake by the U.S. And Mr. Abe himself set off a firestorm by suggesting that Japan wasn't culpable for enslaving thousands of "comfort women" during World War II. Then there is his cabinet's approval rating languishing at 34%, thanks to shoddy management of the government's pension system and the specter of bureaucratic corruption following the suicide of Agriculture Minister Toshikatsu Masaoka. To bolster his ratings, Mr. Abe needs to mollify the public and shift the debate by focusing on the big picture--the necessity of further strengthening Japan's foreign and security policies. The danger is that, unless done carefully, this emphasis might backfire and embolden those who see the prime minister as a dangerous nationalist.

Mr. Abe came to office pledging to project Japanese influence and build up its power. He was committed to continuing Mr. Koizumi's close relationship with the U.S., and he soon added his own tactic of patriotically asserting Japan's national interests even as he moved to unfreeze relations with China and South Korea. A large part of those interests focused on holding Kim Jong Il's North Korea responsible for kidnapping more than a dozen Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s. The Stalinist regime used them to train spies and saboteurs.

Mr. Abe also pushed forward with constitutional revision, freeing Japan from its 60-year inability to act in collective self-defense with its allies and removing the limitations of Article 9 of the postwar constitution. He continued Tokyo's participation in ballistic missile defense development with the U.S. He also recently asked to purchase America's most advanced stealth fighter, the F-22, as a hedge against China's growing military capabilities.

Yet Mr. Abe's firm support for U.S. goals has not always translated into tangible gains. The Pentagon is balking at allowing Tokyo to buy the F-22s--ostensibly because of export restrictions on advanced military hardware, though it may have more to do with Washington's desire not to antagonize Beijing by giving the Japanese a clear strategic edge.

Moreover, the Bush administration has pushed ahead with its February nuclear deal with North Korea despite Japan's refusal to participate until the abductee issue is settled. The message from the U.S. is "trust us, we'll take care of you in the end." But that's not good enough for a country feeling the pressure of a rising China and the confidence of several years' economic recovery after a stagnant 1990s.

Lately, Japan's policies have complemented Washington's goals of spreading democracy, free markets and ensuring Asian stability. For example, Tokyo has proposed ambitious plans for integrating East Asia into a common economic bloc and linking democracies in the region to create an "arc of freedom and prosperity." In addition, Tokyo continues to provide public goods in the Asia Pacific region, from counterterrorism training to millions of yen in development aid. For these reasons, Japan has become, if anything, a more important partner of the U.S.

Washington policy makers should hope that Mr. Abe wins the election. There are others waiting in the wings to take over the top spot, but none of them seem as committed as Mr. Abe to transforming Japan's role in Asia and the world. His fall would likely result in less visionary leadership, possibly even a turn to leaders who seek greater accommodation with China, or conversely to a more hawkish replacement; either would damage Japan's attempts to lead the emerging East Asian community. Greater U.S. support for Mr. Abe's policies will help him make the case that his goals are recognized abroad as contributing to peace and stability and are in Japan's best interests.

In the end, Japan's citizens will decide what kind of leadership they want to pilot their country in the coming years. Despite scandal and missteps, they might find that it is Mr. Abe who offers the most compelling vision of their country's role in the world.

Michael Auslin is a resident scholar at AEI.