Science Articles: 1. "Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models,"  Monaghan A. J., et. al. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, April 2008. Abstract: We compare new observationally-based data sets of Antarctic near-surface air temperature and snowfall accumulation with 20th century simulations from global climate models (GCMs) that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Annual Antarctic snowfall accumulation trends in the GCMs agree with observations during 1960–1999, and the sensitivity of snowfall accumulation to near-surface air temperature fluctuations is approximately the same as observed, about 5% K−1. Thus if Antarctic temperatures rise as projected, snowfall increases may partially offset ice sheet mass loss by mitigating an additional 1 mm y−1 of global sea level rise by 2100. However, 20th century (1880–1999) annual Antarctic near-surface air temperature trends in the GCMs are about 2.5-to-5 times larger-than-observed, possibly due to the radiative impact of unrealistic increases in water vapor. Resolving the relative contributions of dynamic and radiative forcing on Antarctic temperature variability in GCMs will lead to more robust 21st century projections. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007GL032630.shtml 2. “Isotopic Evidence for Glaciation During the Cretaceous Supergreenhouse.” Bornemann, André, et. al. Nature, 319:189-192, January 2008. Abstract: The Turonian (93.5 to 89.3 million years ago) was one of the warmest periods of the Phanerozoic eon, with tropical sea surface temperatures over 35°C. High-amplitude sea-level changes and positive  18O excursions in marine limestones suggest that glaciation events may have punctuated this episode of extreme warmth. New  18O data from the tropical Atlantic show synchronous shifts  91.2 million years ago for both the surface and deep ocean that are consistent with an approximately 200,000-year period of glaciation, with ice sheets of about half the size of the modern Antarctic ice cap. Even the prevailing supergreenhouse climate was not a barrier to the formation of large ice sheets, calling into question the common assumption that the poles were always ice-free during past periods of intense global warming. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/319/5860/189 3. “Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005.” Pielke Jr., Roger A, et. al. Natural Hazards Review, 9:29-42, 2008. Abstract: After more than two decades of relatively little Atlantic hurricane activity, the past decade saw heightened hurricane activity and more than $150 billion in damage in 2004 and 2005. This paper normalizes mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values using two methodologies. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if storms from the past made landfall under another year’s societal conditions. Our methods use changes in inflation and wealth at the national level and changes in population and housing units at the coastal county level. Across both normalization methods, there is no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage in the data set, which follows the lack of trends in landfall frequency or intensity observed over the twentieth century. The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. Over the 106 years of record, the average annual normalized damage in the continental United States is about $10 billion under both methods. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Great Miami storm, with $140–157 billion of normalized damage: the most damaging years are 1926 and 2005. Of the total damage, about 85% is accounted for by the intense hurricanes Saffir-Simpson Categories 3, 4, and 5, yet these have comprised only 24% of the U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. Unless action is taken to address the growing concentration of people and properties in coastal areas where hurricanes strike, damage will increase, and by a great deal, as more and wealthier people increasingly inhabit these coastal locations. http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2476-2008.02.pdf 4. “Defining the frequency of near-shore tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North Pacific from historical surface observations (1921–2005).” Englehart, P. J., M. D. Lewis, and A. V. Douglas. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 2008. Key Observations: 1) Based on data for 1920-2005 (shown in Figure 2) the authors conclude, "it is apparent that long-term TC [Tropical Cyclone, i.e., "hurricane"] frequency exhibits a significant (p = 0.05) negative trend (r = -0.30)."  2) They also present evidence that "the apparent decrease in near-shore [tropical cyclone] activity [shown in Figure 2] is not substantially conditioned by data and measurement issues." http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007GL032546.shtml 5. “Return periods of continental U.S. hurricanes.” Parisi, F. and R. Lund. Journal of Climate, 18, 403-410, 2008. Abstract: This note estimates return periods of Atlantic basin hurricanes striking the continental United States. With Hurricane Katrina fresh on the public’s mind, there is considerable interest in this topic. The return periods are estimated from historical data from the 1900 to 2006 period via extreme value methods and Poisson regression techniques. Despite the recent active 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, the authors do not find evidence of an increasing trend in hurricane strike frequencies. http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2007JCLI1772.1 Climate Change: Science Articles

Policy Articles:  1. “Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change.” Timothy Searchinger, et. al, February 2008, Science. Finding: Increasing production of biofuels in the United States leads to net increases in carbon emissions due to corresponding land use changes in the United States and worldwide. Abstract: Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. Using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1151861v1 2. “Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt.” Joseph Fargione, et al, February 2008, Science. Finding: The clearing of carbon-rich land to grow biofuels creates a carbon debt larger than the short-term greenhouse gas emissions savings that come from consuming biofuels instead of fossil fuels. Abstract: Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food-based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a ‘biofuel carbon debt’ by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions these biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1152747   3. "What to Do About Climate Change." Indur Goklany, February 2008, Policy Analysis. Finding: The world can best combat climate change and advance well-being by reducing present-day vulnerabilities to climate-sensitive problems that could be exacerbated by climate change rather than through GHG reductions. Summary: Halting climate change would reduce cumulative mortality from various climate-sensitive threats, namely, hunger, malaria, and coastal flooding, by 4–10 percent in 2085, while increasing populations at risk from water stress and possibly worsening matters for biodiversity. But according to cost information from the UN Millennium Program and the IPCC, measures focused specifically on reducing vulnerability to these threats would reduce cumulative mortality from these risks by 50–75 percent at a fraction of the cost of reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Simultaneously, such measures would reduce major hurdles to the developing world’s sustainable economic development, the lack of which is why it is most vulnerable to climate change. http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-609.pdf In addition: Goklany's recent work on climate change appears in Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change and Energy & Environment. Those papers can be found at http://members.cox.net/igoklany/#cc. 4. "Failed Mechanism." Barbara Haya, November 2007, International Rivers. Finding: The Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism's subsidies of hydropower result in environmental destruction and are unlikely to create reductions in carbon emissions. Summary: This report offers a critique of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), arguing that the subsidization of hydro technology projects works to hinder rather than help the Protocol's efforts against dangerous climate change. http://www.internationalrivers.org/files/Failed_Mechanism_3.pdf 5. "To Tax or Not to Tax: Alternative Approaches to Slowing Global Warming." William D. Nordhaus, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy Finding: "Price-type" controls like carbon taxes have various advantages over "quantity-type" controls like cap-and-trade. Abstract:  This study reviews different approaches to the political and economic control of global public goods such as global warming. It compares quantity-oriented control mechanisms like the Kyoto Protocol with price-type control mechanisms such as internationally harmonized carbon taxes. The analysis focuses on such issues as the relationship to ultimate targets, performance under conditions of uncertainty, volatility of induced carbon prices, the inefficiencies of taxation and regulation, potential for corruption and accounting finagling, and ease of implementation. It concludes that price-type approaches such as carbon taxes have major advantages for slowing global warming. http://reep.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/1/1/26 Climate Change: Policy Articles