Honoring Our Veterans

Veterans Day, which was first observed as Armistice Day in 1919 following the first anniversary of the end of World War I, is a day to honor the living veterans of our nation's wars. As president-elect Barack Obama prepares to assume office, the United States is engaged in two wars with a military in desperate need of more equipment, additional manpower, and a modernized command structure. Thomas Donnelly and Frederick W. Kagan argue in Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power that our forces have been stretched painfully thin by the grinding pace of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere around the world. As threats mount, the next administration faces tough decisions on how to reshape our military while ensuring the lasting legacy of our veterans.

• Karlyn Bowman offers a profile of veterans in America and how they voted.
• In a Wall Street Journal article, Donnelly and Kagan say we need a larger army.
• Donnelly and Tim Sullivan address the defense issues facing the next administration in an April National Security Outlook.

No Trust, No Verification

As the world economy swirls in the financial crisis in autumn 2008, not too many eyes have been on North Korea, where Kim Jong Il's health remains a question mark. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has begun reactivating its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, violating its agreement with the United States to verifiably dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for, among other rewards, removal from the list of state sponsors of terror. AEI scholars continue to voice strong reservations about the six party talks as U.S. negotiators strive desperately to salvage them. In the Wall Street Journal, John R. Bolton and Nicholas Eberstadt have called on policymakers to plan for a leadership transition in Pyongyang and not to fear the end of Kim's rule: "Kim Jong Il's demise could thus hasten North Korea's demise as well, an outcome we should welcome. A reunited, fully democratic Korea would likely be a strong U.S. ally, a geopolitical benefit too often ignored by our State Department."

• Eberstadt spoke at a 2007 AEI conference on regime collapse in North Korea.
• Danielle Pletka questions the Bush administration's record on North Korea in the Washington Post. She moderated an April 2008 conference featuring Eberstadt on how the Bush administration has handled Pyongyang.

Are We Ready?

President Bush addresses Congress on September 20, 2001. Photo: Eric Draper/White House

"Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign unlike any other we have ever seen," President George W. Bush told the nation at an emergency joint session of Congress on September 20, 2001. "Our nation, this generation, will lift the dark threat of violence from our people and our future. We will rally the world to this cause by our efforts, by our courage. We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail." This week, we remember and honor those who lost their lives in the 9/11 attacks and in the military conflicts that have followed. Seven years later and just a few short weeks from a presidential election, we must ask and work to answer difficult questions: What is Al Qaeda's structure and strategy today? Is our intelligence better today than it was seven years ago, and is it good enough to prevent another attack on our soil? Does the U.S. military have the tools it needs to win the long war on terrorism? Do we have an adequate legal framework for confronting terrorism?

In Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power, Thomas Donnelly and Frederick W. Kagan provide a blueprint for the configuration of the land forces necessary to mitigate the strains and the risks we face in this modern war. John R. Bolton addresses the president's foreign policy legacy in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. At a July speech at AEI, Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey addressed the rights of detainees held at Guantanamo Bay.

• Hassan Mneimneh examines the current state of al Qaeda and its failure to ignite a global jihad.
• Read AEI scholars' collected research on the war on terrorism.
• Norman J. Ornstein laments Congress' lack of progress on government continuity and he explains how 9/11 defined the Bush presidency.
• Authors in AEI's National Security Outlook series have written about several aspects and fronts of the ongoing War on Terror, including the defense issues facing the next presidential administration.

Russia, Georgia, and the Challenge to the West

In July 2006, when Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili spoke at AEI, he talked of his nation's progress since the Rose Revolution that brought him to power--progress that is now threatened by Russian tanks and soldiers. His young democracy, which sits at an important geopolitical crossroads, has been an ardent advocate of the West and an active ally in Iraq. In a recent Russian Outlook, Leon Aron describes the psychological and practical elements of Russian foreign policy under Putin and his successor--invocations of a great Soviet past, a focus on imagined external enemies, and a fervor to reassert territorial sovereignty--that are fueling the current conflict. On August 13, AEI held a forum on how the United States should respond to developments in this conflict and what Russia's conduct can tell us about its foreign policy aims and goals. 

• Click here to read an excerpt of Saakashvili's speech at AEI.
• Several military and regional experts discussed the Caucasus war at the August 13 event at AEI.

U.S. Security Cooperation in Africa

A decade ago this week, car bombs exploded near the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing more than two hundred people and injuring more than four thousand. Twelve Americans were killed in the attacks, which were linked to al Qaeda, and the FBI put Osama bin Laden on its "Ten Most Wanted" list soon afterward. Considerable attention has been paid to al Qaeda's role in the Middle East, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, but less attention has been devoted to understanding its presence and activity in Africa. In July 2007, Christopher Griffin and Oriana Scherr wrote a National Security Outlook on terrorist threats in the Horn of Africa, noting that "U.S.-led campaigns in the Middle East and central Asia have pushed jihadist fighters to seek alternative safe havens in territories with weak governments and significant Sunni populations," with the Horn of Africa fitting those criteria. Also in 2007, Mauro De Lorenzo organized a conference at AEI to examine AFRICOM's mission in anticipation of its becoming an independent command in October 2008. This fall, he and Thomas Donnelly will revisit these issues at an AEI conference that will examine the strategic rationale for increasing U.S. security cooperation efforts in Africa and the unique threats and challenges emerging there, including terrorism.

• An AEI report by Griffin and Donnelly evaluates how best to synchronize American counterterrorism and security sector reform efforts with those of third-party allies.

Iraq Stands Up

Frederick W. Kagan and General Jack Keane

Victory in war is never certain until a war ends, but all signs point to the fact that America and its allies are winning in Iraq. American and Iraqi casualties are down, al Qaeda in Iraq has been defeated, the Sunni insurgency has capitulated, and the Shia extremists are being marginalized. The Iraqi Security Forces are stepping up, and the government has met nearly all the benchmarks set for it by the U.S. Congress. Elections will be held soon. Our strategic partnership is intact, despite some Iraqi calls for rapid American troop reductions. Securing that nation so that it can prosper is now essential. At an AEI event on July 24, AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan, father of the surge and primary author of the Institute's four Iraq Planning Group reports, and Kimberly Kagan and former acting U.S. Army chief of staff General Jack Keane, both members of the group, examined the situation on the ground in Iraq after their recent trip to the country. The three coauthored a Wall Street Journal op-ed last week about victory in Iraq as a means of advancing America’s security and the stability of a vital region in the world.

Iran's Intransigence

Iran claimed to have test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles, escalating provocative actions and highly charged rhetoric that underscore the threat the regime poses to the security of its neighbors and the region. In a major report released in February, AEI scholars presented detailed evidence of Iran's actions in Iraq, the Levant, and Afghanistan. And in May, scholars looked below the surface of the unusually opaque Ahmadinejad presidency to decipher its aims and methods. While life at home continues to deteriorate for ordinary Iranians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has become more powerful, transforming the nation into a military regime--albeit one governed by theocratic principles. In 1979, Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding fifty-two Americans hostage in an act that writer Mark Bowden called "the first battle in America's war with militant Islam." For more than a year, the situation played an important role in the U.S. presidential election. While the response by Senators John McCain and Barack Obama to Iran's latest provocation has been strong, the United States needs to continue to reassure those in Iran's neighborhood and around the globe that we are serious about the threat the regime poses.

• Michael A. Ledeen explores how the failure to take fascist and communist regimes seriously in the twentieth century is being repeated with Iran today.
• Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Danielle Pletka authored the AEI report Iranian Influence in the Levant, Iraq, and Afghanistan and presented it at a conference in February.
• Ali Alfoneh has written Middle Eastern Outlooks on rifts in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government and the IRGC's increasing involvement in domestic politics.
• Michael Rubin recently spotlighted Iran's outreach in Latin America and Africa.

Food Crisis Tops G8's Agenda

George W. Bush and Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda meet at the 2008 G8 summit on Hokkaido. White House / Eric Draper

As the leaders of the world's largest industrialized economies met in Japan on July 7-9 for the G8 summit, the global food crisis held a prime position on the agenda. Prices for the world's staples have doubled in the past year, and food stocks are at their lowest level in fifty years. Driven by increasing worldwide demand, spiking energy prices, and bad policies that prevent experimentation with high-yielding crops and prop up food prices at consumers' expense, the specter of starvation has risen in the developing world. Before his departure, President Bush declared the food crisis to be one of his top priorities for the G8 summit, pledging food aid, supporting developing-world farm enterprises, encouraging Congress to remove trade barriers that artificially boost prices, and promoting biotechnology. Bush also raised the issues of ensuring accountability (for both donors and recipients) for aid pledges to Africa, a renewed fight against HIV/AIDS and malaria on that continent, and a jumpstart to the Doha round.

• On July 2, AEI hosted Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), World Bank president Robert Zoellick, and other experts on food, agriculture, and development for a conference on the causes of--and solutions to--the food crisis.
• Mauro De Lorenzo has written about reforming U.S. long-term food aid programs.
• AEI's Development Policy Outlook series features several installments on how to improve U.S. foreign aid. One recent issue, by Deepak Lal and Sarath Rajapatirana, asks whether Africa needs a Marshall Plan.
• Roger Bate has written several Health Policy Outlooks on HIV/AIDs in Africa, addressing South Africa's unconventional program, the World Health Organization's flawed target-setting, and other obstacles to effective treatment.
• A recent conference on U.S. agricultural subsidies and the demise of Doha featured Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner and Paul Wolfowitz.

Legitimizing the Pyongyang Regime?

Chris Michel / Flickr / Creative Commons

On Thursday, President Bush announced that, after twenty years on the list, North Korea would be removed from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. The administration had pledged to delist the North if it complied with a long-overdue declaration of its nuclear program for outside inspection, which it claimed to have done shortly before Bush's announcement. Bush also lifted Trading with the Enemy Act sanctions against Pyongyang. AEI scholars have long criticized the administration's second-term approach to North Korea, which Danielle Pletka has characterized as "the North Korean equivalent of Stockholm syndrome. So eager are [administration officials] to ink a deal, they are not only willing to jettison meaningful requirements, but have stooped to making arguments on behalf of the North Korean dictatorship to the U.S. Congress and the American public." Such capitulation threatens the international nonproliferation regime. John R. Bolton has written frequently of the dangers of willful ignorance of North Korea's nuclear activities, especially its ties to Syria and Iran: "North Korean nuclear proliferation is quite likely more than a series of one-time transactions that create problems elsewhere in the world. It may very well be integral to its own nuclear weapons program."

• Speakers at recent AEI events have explored the Bush administration's recent record on North Korea and the likelihood of multilateral diplomacy leading to a resolution of the North Korea issue.

Mugabe's Death Grip on Zimbabwe

iStockphoto/Christopher Steer

The Zimbabwean opposition movement has withdrawn from Friday's scheduled runoff election amid widespread violence being conducted by dictator Robert Mugabe's henchmen. Eighty people are estimated to have been killed in election-related attacks since March. Since 1980, Mugabe has presided over Zimbabwe's ruin: starvation, destruction of its agricultural sector, rampant hyperinflation, and a mass exodus of refugees. Mugabe had already made clear the outcome of the runoff: "We fought for this country, and a lot of blood was shed. We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X [on a ballot]. How can a ballpoint fight with a gun?" The regional heavyweight, South Africa, has declined to intervene in favor of the opposition. Mugabe will not fall without international intervention, Roger Bate writes, and such intervention is impossible without the support of Zimbabwe's other neighbors, such as Botswana or Zambia: "For while the U.S. and the UK make the right noises . . . neither they nor the U.N. can do anything substantive without local African support."

• Paul Wolfowitz writes that neither sanctions nor military intervention will work, so the international community should now declare its support for Zimbabwe if Mugabe gives up power.
• Bate has also addressed Western complicity in Mugabe's rule. He and others have documented how Mugabe has presided over the destruction of Zimbabwe's health system.
• AEI has held events on the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy and on how the United States's new Africa Command (AFRICOM) might contribute to U.S.-African security cooperation.

Lisbon on Life Support

In April, AEI senior fellow John R. Bolton addressed the inaugural meeting of Global Governance Watch, a joint project of AEI and the Federalist Society. In his talk, he traced the development of ideas of global governance, arguing that they designed to constrain U.S. action. "To Americans, sovereignty is not some abstract concept," he said. "We govern; we determine what our government will do. So by talking about breaking sovereignty down or sharing it or limiting it, people are saying to us that we do not know how to govern ourselves effectively and that a little less self-government would be good for us. I disagree, and I think the vast majority of Americans disagree." People in Ireland apparently disagree, too, voting solidly in a referendum last week to nix the Lisbon treaty, which would have ceded more power to Brussels.

• Bolton's speech was published as part of AEI's On the Issues series.
• Bolton recounts his defense of U.S. sovereignty and other issues in Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad.
• The Global Governance Watch website is available at www.globalgovernancewatch.org.

Bush's Visit Marks High Transatlantic Tide

George W. Bush began his last state visit to Europe on June 9, 2008, with a U.S.-European Union summit in Slovenia. Intended to celebrate and strengthen the transatlantic alliance, Bush's visit will also mark the sixtieth anniversary of two transatlantic high points: the Marshall Plan and the Berlin Airlift. Despite disagreements over Iraq, transatlaticist leaders are ensconsed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom; a pro-alliance tide in Europe may be building; free-market reforms are being implemented in unlikely places; and London has a new, highly visible Conservative mayor. AEI scholars have written extensively on the importance of preserving and strengthening the transatlantic alliance.

• The Institute has sponsored research on what the United States can learn from Europe in energy policy, pension reform, education, and transportation.
• Michael Barone explored the meaning of Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's election. John R. Bolton wrote in May about a new "pro-American direction" for Europe. The feeling is mutual: Charles Murray confessed his "Francophilia" in a recent Weekly Standard article.
• Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski spoke at AEI about the evolving U.S.-Polish security relationship and the prospects for missile-defense cooperation. NATO has also been a subject of discussion. Ida Garibaldi's latest European Outlook explores how the alliance organization can protect European energy security.

Earthquake Exposes Fault Lines in China's Civic Culture

The devastating earthquake in Sichuan, China--whose rising death toll is nearing 70,000--is exposing political and social fault lines in China. News organizations have reported that Chinese Internet users are abuzz with stories about and criticism of the way the regime handled the quake's aftermath. Many of those whose children were crushed in collapsed schools are demanding answers. Ordinary Chinese are also donating to the victims' families, unleashing grass roots philanthropic energy, and possibly setting up a conflict with the state.

• In a recent paper for AEI's Tocqueville on China project, Perry Link explores the subversive methods that ordinary Chinese citizens use to object to government corruption and misrule--presaging the ruptures observed in China's civic culture after the quake.
• After the earthquake, the provincial government suspended the one-child policy for those who had lost their children--making clear the inhumanity of the existing policy. In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China, last fall, Nicholas Eberstadt said that the one-child policy is constraining China's potential.

An End to Nuclear Weapons?

In January 2007 and 2008, the Wall Street Journal published articles by four tough-minded foreign policy luminaries, Sam Nunn, William Perry, George Shultz, and Henry Kissinger, calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons. The Democratic candidates for president have signed on to the proposal, and this week, John McCain, while not endorsing it specifically, expressed a desire to move in the direction of further nuclear arms reductions and to support a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. AEI's Gary J. Schmitt argues that much of what the Gang of Four recommended is already declared U.S. and Russian policy. And what is not, he says--for example, turning the existing nuclear testing and military fissile production moratoriums into legally binding treaties--"is judged to be unverifiable not only by arms control skeptics, but by the State Department's own Bureau of Verification, Compliance and Implementation." Schmitt believes that the proposal has little to do with the key nuclear threat we face: horizontal proliferation--that is, the spread of nuclear weapons to nonnuclear states like Iran and North Korea. The next president will face a daunting array of challenges in this area, requiring hard-headed judgments about the effectiveness of any radical changes in U.S. security policy.

 The Military We Need

In recent speeches on America's military readiness, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has spoken about the stresses on our military forces and families. AEI's Christopher Griffin, who follows military bloggers' commentary in a regular column for the Armed Forces Journal, wrote recently about bloggers' reactions to the new film Stop-Loss, noting that the current policy of extending military tours is a "symptom of the military's lack of manpower" that could be alleviated with a better-designed military. Ground Truth: The Future of U.S. Land Power, a new book by AEI scholars Thomas Donnelly and Frederick W. Kagan, provides a blueprint for the configuration of land forces necessary to mitigate these strains and the risks they pose. The authors explain the types of conflicts for which we must be prepared, provide a series of snapshots of recent campaigns, describe the qualities necessary for success in current and future missions, and offer concrete estimates of the size and cost of the necessary retooling. They argue for an active-duty land force of about 1 million, up from around 700,000 today. They estimate the cost of this total package as less than 1.2 percent of projected GDP by 2017, when the rebuilding can be completed. The cost is high, they say, but the cost of failing to build up land forces is incalculably higher. We owe all those serving their country on this Memorial Day and in the future a commitment to rebuilding on a bipartisan basis.

• Donnelly and Kagan discussed the limitations of U.S. land forces and the resulting constraint on U.S. military strategy in a Wall Street Journal article.

Business as Usual at the Kremlin

Only a few hours after being inaugurated as Russia's president, Dmitri Medvedev nominated Vladimir Putin to be prime minister. News reports suggest that the number of deputy prime ministers will be increased, a move that would surely strengthen Putin's already powerful hand. In a new Russian Outlook, Leon Aron argues that the ideology, priorities, and policies of the Putin Kremlin "are almost certain to inform and guide the Medvedev administration." His chilling and detailed portrait describes the distinctive elements of  "Russia, Inc." The new authoritarianism and a sultanistic corporatism have created a situation in which, in the words of one critic, those "who rule Russia today, own Russia." Medvedev faces serious problems at home. He assumes the presidency at a time of sharp population decline due to exceedingly poor public health and low birthrates, says Nicholas Eberstadt--developments that will "straitjacket Russian productivity and development."

Fragile Progress in Iraq as Petraeus Returns to Congress

On April 8-9, General David Petraeus provided Congress with his assessment of the situation in Iraq. In a detailed new report, Iraq: The Way Ahead, AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan and the Iraq Planning Group document the progress that has been made and lay out a long-term strategy to consolidate the gains. Kagan describes the reduction in violence, gains by the Iraqi army, improvements in the National Police and Iraqi Police, and growing grassroots pressure that has produced legislative breakthroughs on key domestic initiatives. Most political, economic, social, and military trends, he argues, "are now moving in the right direction." The United States must now "recommit to success in Iraq" to help establish a peaceful, stable, secular, and democratic state that is a reliable ally in the struggle against terrorism.

• Kagan was joined by Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack for the launch of the new report.
• For more of AEI scholars' work on Iraq, visit www.aei.org/AEIonIraq/.

 Taiwan's Election and Cross-Strait Tensions

Ma Ying-jeou addresses AEI in 2006

Promising to pursue a closer economic relationship with mainland China and to revitalize Taiwan's slowing economy, Kuomintang leader Ma Ying-jeou won a strong victory in the island's presidential election on Sunday. In a 2006 speech at AEI, president-elect Ma outlined five priorities of his campaign: a return to the "One China, different interpretations" paradigm for cross-Strait relations, a cross-Strait peace accord, a "normalized economic relationship" with the mainland, increased cultural and educational exchanges, and the integration of Taiwan into the international system. With the election of a new president, Taiwan and the United States have an opportunity to craft a common agenda. According to a new AEI report, a "positive bilateral agenda that capitalizes on Taiwan's many strengths--economic, 'soft power,' technological--to help it continue to contribute to the international community" can help Taiwan "strengthen its international identity as a responsible stakeholder and face less temptation to press issues that cannot now be resolved."

• Click here for video and a transcript of Ma's speech at AEI.
• Dan Blumenthal and Randall Schriver coauthored the report of the Taiwan Policy Working Group. Click here for a press release on the report.
• Gary J. Schmitt and Christopher Griffin addressed the Taiwanese political situation in an article on The Daily Standard.

Iraq Five Years Later: What's Next?

In the March 16 New York Times, AEI resident fellow Richard Perle reminded us how Saddam Hussein himself forced the question of war by being "responsible for two wars with more than a million dead, involved for decades with terrorist groups, routinely rewarding suicide bombers with cash, unwilling to document the disposition of chemical and biological weapons." After our "ill-conceived occupation," he says, Iraqis are now getting their chance to build their own society. AEI vice president Danielle Pletka argued that there is "no freedom gene" and that living under Saddam's tyranny "conditioned Iraqis to accept unearned leadership, to embrace sect and tribe over ideas, and to tolerate unbridled corruption." Still, both argue, the decision to liberate 25 million Iraqis was correct, and the United States must continue to help the Iraqi people build a stable and secure state. On March 24 at AEI, resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan, whose scholarship has undergirded the surge, looked ahead with his phase four Iraq report. "The civil war in Iraq is over," he says in the report, and "the way ahead is clear."

• At the March 24 conference, Kagan was joined by Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack to discuss what the United States must do to seize opportunities in Iraq.
• AEI senior fellow Karlyn Bowman recently updated her AEI Public Opinion Study of the Iraq war.
• Gary J. Schmitt wrote recently that military operations in Iraq must be sustained in advance of Iraqi elections and to support the development of the Iraqi Security Forces.

America and Australia: "Permanent Friends"

Former Australian prime minister John Howard delivers the 2008 Irving Kristol Lecture.

Former Australian prime minister John Howard addressed AEI on Wednesday night, speaking publicly for the first time since the November elections. In his speech, entitled "Keeping Faith with Our Common Values," he defended his government's economic, defense, and social policies, drawing connections between them and the foundational principles of American conservatism. He also surveyed the world scene, marveling at the emergence of democratic rule in Indonesia and the resilience of democracy in India. He added that those in Australia who wish to grow closer to China at the expense of its U.S. relationship are misguided, for America and Australia share values that run far deeper than the demands of strategic diplomacy. Above all, Howard returned to the touchstones of political principle: "To achieve success, governments need a guiding philosophy--not a zealous ideology which is insensitive to political compromise, but a directional touchstone which provides overall consistency through the years. In other words, ultimately they must be ruled by values and ideas and not only by an instinct for political survival--necessary though that is."

• Click here for the full text of John Howard's prepared remarks.

Replaying the Cold War?

The outcome of the Russian presidential "election" this Sunday was never in doubt, but whether its new president Dmitri Medvedev will be in charge is. Vladimir Putin, who anointed Medvedev as his successor in December, will likely assume the post of prime minister. His increasingly bellicose rhetoric in recent months suggests that he may be eager to replay the Cold War--with a new ending. Putin threatened to point nuclear missiles at Ukraine if it helps the U.S. deploy a missile defense system in Europe. He condemned Kosovo's declaration of independence and sent Medvedev on a high-profile trip to Serbia to sign an energy deal that helps to cement Russia's control of key energy routes, a source of political leverage with Western Europe. Russian jets may have violated Japanese air space in new exercises in the Pacific, and they have buzzed an American aircraft carrier. As for the election, Russian authorities scrubbed the election list of serious challengers to the Putin loyalist and have severely constrained the activities of foreign election observers. In a recent Russian Outlook, AEI resident scholar Leon Aron traced the trajectory of Russian foreign policy in the Putin years, arguing that "no significant change for the better in Russia's relations with the West should be expected."

• On March 10, AEI will host four prominent leaders of Russia's beleaguered liberal opposition to discuss the political situation in Moscow.
• Aron addresses Putin's seemingly revanchist ambitions in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. 

Following Fidel

Cuban dictator Fidel Castro resigned the post of president, ending nearly five decades of repressive rule that stretched from the 1959 revolution and spanned ten U.S. presidencies. He will pass power to his brother Raul, who is, as AEI's Mark Falcoff has written, "impressed by the Chinese model, which combines free markets, foreign investment, and iron-clad dictatorship by the army and the Communist Party." Observers agree that any future after the Castro brothers will need to be driven by Cubans themselves. While a democratic transition will not happen overnight, says AEI's Roger F. Noriega, "U.S. diplomacy must be creative and active." "The whole world wishes Cuba well," he says, "and its historic friend--the United States--is poised and eager to help 11 million people rebuild Cuba in their own image."

• Noriega argued in a recent Latin American Outlook that the United States must vigorously promote Cuban democracy in the post-Castro period lest Fidel's dictatorship be recycled under Raul. Noriega is available for comment on the Cuban transition here.
• In January, AEI held a conference to articulate principles for economic engagement with a free Cuba.
• Last year, Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, a childhood refugee from Castro's Cuba, spoke at a conference on moving toward a free Cuba politically, socially, and economically.
• Falcoff is the author of Cuba the Morning After: Confronting Castro's Legacy (AEI Press, 2003 and 2006), which explores the challenges of a post-Castro regime to U.S.-Cuban relations. He also explored this scenario in a Latin American Outlook.

Aiding Africa

George Bush's second visit to Africa as president of the United States began last weekend. His five-nation tour will take him to Benin, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana, and Liberia. The president will meet with the leaders of the African nations to review the effects of U.S. efforts since Bush's first visit in 2003 on the prevention and treatment of AIDS and malaria in Africa and on economic development. U.S. funding has put more than 1 million people on AIDS therapies, and the president has called for a doubling of funding--to $30 million--over the next five years. Two AEI resident fellows have addressed the challenges Africa faces on these fronts. Roger Bate has written about counterfeit and substandard pharmaceuticals in African countries and about how the cost of drugs prevents Africa's poor from accessing treatment. Mauro De Lorenzo has written about the problems Rwanda's aid dependence poses to its investment climate, and he coauthored a Development Policy Outlook on the success of entrepreneurial philanthropy in the developing world.

• AEI held an event in January on the effect of indicator-based competition on foreign aid.
• Bate recently wrote articles about new hope for peace and freedom in Zimbabwe and the crisis in East Africa.
• At an AEI event last year, speakers addressed some of the major questions raised by AFRICOM's creation.

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the Future of Pakistan

The late Benazir Bhutto at AEI in February 2007

Pakistan lost one of its most forceful leaders when Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on December 27 at a campaign rally. Bhutto, who had returned to her country in October in order to prepare for Pakistan’s 2008 elections, had served her country twice as prime minister. A powerful voice for freedom and democracy in Pakistan has been extinguished, and AEI mourns her passing.

On January 2, AEI held a conference on the resulting crisis in Pakistan and American policy. Among the questions that Michael O'Hanlon, Husain Haqqani, AEI vice president for foreign and defense policy Danielle Pletka, and AEI resident fellow Thomas Donnelly discussed: What does Bhutto's death mean for restoring democracy in Pakistan and resisting escalating violence by Taliban and al Qaeda extremists? What does this tragedy portend for regional security? What can the United States and NATO do to address al Qaeda and Taliban threats in Pakistan's tribal areas during this crisis? Is Pakistan's nuclear arsenal being adequately safeguarded?

A Narrow Victory for Venezuelan Democracy

In a recent summit of leaders from Latin America, Spain, and Portugal, King Juan Carlos of Spain told Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez to "shut up." The unusually blunt words came after Chavez repeatedly called former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar a "fascist."  Last year, the Venezuelan president referred to President Bush as a "devil" at the United Nations. Unfortunately, Chavez's rhetorical excess is matched by his revolutionary zeal. But in a referendum on December 2, 2007, Venezuelan voters, by a bare margin, put the brakes on Chavez's plans to wield absolute power. Returns from the referendum there that would have abolished presidential term limits, given the president control over the central bank and provided him sweeping emergency powers strongly suggest that it has been defeated. AEI's Roger F. Noriega has written about Latin Americans' desire for democracy, urging the United States and the Organization of American States to do more to promote democracy in the region and urging Latin American governments to stand up and stand together to defend their principles and oppose Chavez's demagoguery.

• Last December, Noriega, Representative Connie Mack, and others spoke about the prospects for the increasingly undemocratic Venezuela. Noriega contributed a Latin American Outlook on how Chavez has led his country down the path to dictatorship.
• Noriega has written other Latin American Outlooks about the need for "democratic solidarity" in the Americas and how democracy is the cure for Chavez-style populism. The most recent issue addresses, among other things, the prospects for Chavez's petrodollar diplomacy in the context of U.S.-Latin American relations.

The Pakistan Conundrum

The political and security situation in Pakistan continues to be of concern, as tensions escalate over the return from exile of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted in 1999 by President Pervez Musharraf and who, like his predecessor Benazir Bhutto, intends to lead his party in the planned January elections. The Pakistani police have deployed thousands of officers to prevent violence similar to the bombings that killed 150 after Bhutto's recent homecoming. Sharif and Bhutto have called on Musharraf to suspend the state of emergency and restore the constitution. U.S. policymakers are trying to balance support for Pakistani democracy with the preservation of regional stability. At a forum for his new book, Surrender Is Not an Option, John R. Bolton said: "The security of the nuclear arsenal is the principal American strategic interest, and in the absence of some discernable alternative--although he's no Jeffersonian democrat--we should support Musharraf. His control of the army is most likely to hold the nuclear arsenal in a secure place." As Danielle Pletka notes in congressional testimony, however, "A moderate, Muslim success story in Pakistan is possible. But the necessary reforms will not take place without constant pressure and frank talk from the United States."

Fukuda's First Visit to Washington

On the eve of a visit by new Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda to Washington, the Japanese ambassador to the United States described the current relationship with the United States as "the most difficult and delicate" that it has been in years. The prime minister's visit comes at a time when the Japanese are increasingly worried about U.S. dealings with North Korea and the U.S. relationship with China. The Washington Post reported last month that J. Thomas Schieffer, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, cabled President Bush with concerns about what a nuclear deal with North Korea could do to relations with Japan, especially if the United States removes North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism absent an agreement for Pyongyang to share information about Japanese abductees. China's decade-long military buildup has also been unnerving to many U.S. allies in Asia. Meanwhile, the debate in Toyko about its strategic future has been intense. On a recent visit to Japan, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates urged Japan to take up greater global security responsibilities. AEI scholars have been watching closely developments with our key ally and its neighbors in the region, aware of the substantial foreign policy and domestic challenges the new prime minister faces.

• Michael Auslin's recent Asian Outlook looks at Fukuda's political positions and what we can expect from his premiership.
• Dan Blumenthal has written about shakiness in the U.S.-Japanese alliance, and Christopher Griffin recently examined how Fukuda's government will deal with strained Sino-Japanese relations.
• John R. Bolton remains skeptical that any progress can come from the six-party talks over North Korea, especially with respect to Japan: "The State Department's lust to remove North Korea from the terrorism list is having a profoundly negative impact on our treaty ally, Japan, the nation most directly threatened by Pyongyang's nuclear capability."
• AEI scholars, U.S. policymakers, and Asian leaders explored competition and change among the emerging Asia-Pacific powers at a recent conference.

Transatlantic Connections | A Dangerous Neighborhood

On November 6 and 7, 2007, President Bush hosted French president Nicolas Sarkozy in Washington, and later in the week, German chancellor Angela Merkel met with the president at his ranch in Texas. These visits followed the U.S. imposition of an array of sanctions on Iran designed to thwart Iranian nuclear and revolutionary ambitions. In October, the United States designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps for proliferation activity and its elite Quds Force for material support for terrorism. Meanwhile, evidence continues to mount of the Guards' complicity in the deaths of American and Iraqi soldiers in Iraq, as well as its substantial influence in Iran's economy and society. For more than two years, the Bush administration has supported all manner of European and United Nations efforts to stop Iran's nuclear activity, but Tehran has remained defiant. U.S. sanctions come at a time when Iranian-sponsored terrorism is generating greater cooperation among French and German intelligence and security services. AEI scholars have written about Iran's long campaign against the United States, the importance of fully implementing sanctions, and the need to empower civil society in Iran as the best hope for averting military action.

• Ali Alfoneh's recent Middle Eastern Outlook uses Persian-language sources to expose the depths of the Guards' involvement in the Iranian economy.
• The Iranian Time Bomb, by Michael A. Ledeen, examines the ideological and religious origins of terrorism supported by Tehran.
• AEI's Global Business in Iran: Interactive database records transactions connected to the Islamic Republic, many of which implicate the Guards. In the Wall Street Journal, Danielle Pletka addresses the need for sanctions to tighten the pressure.
• Michael Rubin emphasizes that cutting democracy funding would make military conflict with Iran more likely in a recent Washington Post article.

The visits in early November 2007 of French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel to the United States aim to improve transatlantic ties at a time of deepening concern about Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. In a meeting with U.S. business leaders this week, Sarkozy reiterated his view that a nuclear bomb in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hands "would be unacceptable." The United States has imposed an array of sanctions on Iran designed to thwart Iranian nuclear and revolutionary ambitions. The situation in next-door Afghanistan, where France and Germany have troops, remains difficult as the Taliban steps up its campaign to destabilize that nation. The Bush administration has expressed concerns about restrictions on how and where NATO troops can be used to confront the insurgents. The current turmoil in Pakistan may be making Afghan circumstances worse as groups allied with the Taliban operate from within Pakistan, in turn making the neighborhood exceedingly dangerous at a time of deepening crisis within Pakistan itself.

• Last fall, Gary J. Schmitt and Reuel Marc Gerecht examined a potential pro-American reorientation in France.
• Michael Rubin addresses how a misplaced emphasis on multilateralism and dialogue can hinder U.S. and European attempts to confront Iran. Ali Alfoneh's recent Middle Eastern Outlook uses Persian-language sources to expose the depths of the Guards' involvement in the Iranian economy.
• Danielle Pletka has testified before Congress about the U.S.-Pakistani relationship, and a recent issue of National Security Outlook offers lessons for Pakistan's anti-extremist counterinsurgency.

The Powder Keg That Is Pakistan

AEI's Danielle Pletka and former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto at AEI in February

More than a year ago, in an AEI National Security Outlook, Thomas Donnelly noted the proliferation problems posed by hostile states of North Korea and Iran. But he also said that "a more important problem may be that of Pakistan, a crucial ally in the global war on terror and the broader war for the future of the Islamic world." Little has changed to make anyone more optimistic about the situation there. The assassination attempt on Pakistan Peoples Party leader Benazir Bhutto that killed more than one hundred people and injured scores more is but one indication of Pakistan's precarious position today. Turmoil in the country's political system is matched by a relentless campaign to by Islamic extremists to topple the regime. Indeed, Taliban militants had threatened her return with bombings. Bhutto, the first and only woman to serve as prime minister of Pakistan, spoke at AEI in February on the security and political situations in her country.

• The September issue of National Security Outlook focused on how Pakistan can better fight the insurgency in its tribal areas.
• Danielle Pletka has testified before Congress on the U.S.-Pakistani relationship.

Putin's Power Play

On October 12 and 13, 2007, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates met with their Russian counterparts to discuss a variety of issues, including the U.S. plan to build an anti-missile defense system in Europe and the 2009 expiration of the START treaty. The meetings came at a time when Russia's internal politics have taken an inauspicious turn. In the spring edition of AEI's Russian Outlook, Leon Aron predicted that Russian president Vladimir Putin would find a way to stick around. Noting the Russian president's popularity, the weakened and marginalized political opposition, and the Duma's subservience to the Kremlin, Aron suggested that Putin would select a "dark grey horse" with no known political views to succeeed him, something he did last month in putting forth Viktor Zubkov as a candidate for prime minister. Now, Putin has announced that he himself will lead the party's candidate list in the December parliamentary elections and that taking the job of prime minister was a "realistic idea." At a September AEI conference, participants discussed the upcoming elections, Russia's movement away from democracy, and its international record. Reuel Marc Gerecht has written about a more sinister aspect of the new Russia: its dominance by former and active-duty internal security and intelligence officials at the top, many of whom have been mentored by Putin, and whose methods--including murder--have furthered Putin's regime.

• Aron's latest book, Russia's Revolution: Essays 1989-2006 (AEI Press, 2007), contains a chapter on "the Putin restoration."
• Anne Applebaum commented on Putin's surprise announcement and the unpredictability of Russian politics.

Columbus Day and Transatlantic Affairs

The annual observance of Columbus Day reminds us of America's European origins and of the continuing importance of the transatlantic alliance that, in our own times, won a world war and defeated the Soviet Union. Although tensions have emerged in recent years, there are some promising portents for U.S.-European relations, such as the election of pro-American president Nicolas Sarkozy in France. AEI scholars have been monitoring political events like the rise of British prime minister Gordon Brown, Europe's troubling demographic trends, the defense alliance, and trade and finance issues.

• Last fall, Gary J. Schmitt and Reuel Marc Gerecht examined a potential pro-American reorientation in France. Newt Gingrich offered lessons for American politicians from the Sarkozy victory. John R. Bolton explored what Gordon Brown's premiership will mean for the U.S.-British alliance, and Anne Applebaum addressed the challenges faced by Britain's Conservative Party.
• Nicholas Eberstadt and Hans Groth have written about healthy aging in Europe in light of depopulation. Eberstadt will speak at an event on Tuesday about U.S.-European "demographic divergence."
• David Frum recently wrote about tensions in the NATO alliance. Applebaum covered the seeming collapse of support for America in "New Europe."
• Claude Barfield wrote a European Outlook about Europe's new embrace of free trade agreements.

Africa Takes Center Stage

AEI's Mauro De Lorenzo and deputy chairperson of the Commission of the African Union Patrick Mazimhaka

Africa, long on the back burner of serious policy attention, is now simmering, and AEI scholars are leading the discussion of challenges there. Perhaps most important is al Qaeda's stepped-up activity in the Horn of Africa as terrorists seek, in the words of Christopher Griffin, "safe havens in terroritories with weak governments and significant Sunni populations," with the Horn meeting those criteria. On September 20, 2007, AEI held a conference on the U.S. military's new Africa Command (AFRICOM) to discuss the forms the security partnership should take to protect U.S. interests. Also of concern is China's activity and long-term strategy on the continent, the subject of a September 12 AEI conference organized by Mauro De Lorenzo. Other AEI scholars, including Roger Bate, continue to the examine foreign aid and pharmaceutical policies affecting public health in Africa. Paul Wolfowitz will be focusing on development issues in Africa.

• Mauro De Lorenzo and Christopher Griffin have been looking at security in Africa. The Horn was the subject of a recent National Security Outlook by Griffin and Oriana Scherr. De Lorenzo and others prepared a study of AFRICOM and African security.
• De Lorenzo has offered an overview of Chinese involvement in Africa, and he has moderated conferences on Chinese dimensions of the Darfur situation and Beijing's charm offensive in Africa.
• Roger Bate has written extensively about public health in Africa. He has addressed the scourge of copied or fake drugs (most recently in Nigeria), trade barriers to drug imports, malaria control in Africa, and South Africa's AIDS program.

No Middle Way in Iraq

Frederick W. Kagan meets the press after an AEI conference.

Throughout 2007, Frederick W. Kagan and AEI's Iraq Planning Group have monitored the situation in Iraq. In January, Kagan released his phase I report, Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq, which urged a rapid scale-up and military surge to clear and hold key points in Iraq. Phase II focused on establishing stability after the initial military component of the surge. On September 6, in anticipation of the testimony of General David Petraeus, he presented a third installment. Kagan argues against "middle-way strategies" that falsely offer prospects for a significant troop drawdown with minimal costs; rather, No Middle Way counters that such "train and equip" strategies would compromise the progress that has been made, including improved security in Baghdad and Anbar, integration of former insurgents into civil police units, and the dispersal of al Qaeda. In his address to the nation on September 13, President Bush described the progress that has been made, arguing that "We must help Iraq defeat those who threaten its future and also threaten ours."

• Other speakers at the September 6 conference included Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, and James Miller of the Center for a New American Security.
• Kagan recently analyzed the Government Accountability Office's Iraq report and the report of the Jones Commission. He has written about policy conflicts over the surge.
• Thomas Donnelly and Gary J. Schmitt recently addressed the surge and military capabilities. Donnelly has also written about defeatism on the home front.

Kremlinologies Old and New: Russia and Japan

Resident Scholar  Leon Aron

Leon Aron recently wrote that "[i]n the winner-take-all regime Mr. Putin has forged, his probable decision to hand over the power hardly presages a period of certainty and tranquility." Russian president Vladimir Putin has now dissolved the Russian government. Duma elections are less than three months away and a presidential vote is scheduled for March. Aron will host a September 18 conference at AEI to discuss the upcoming elections and their consequences for U.S.-Russian relations.

Resident Scholar  Michael Auslin

Meanwhile, in Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation after suffering a significant defeat in the July elections. Michael Auslin wrote recently that "the analysis of Japanese politics lately has approached the fervor of the old Kremlinology." Abe said at a news conference that "in the present situation, it is difficult to push ahead with effective policies that win the support and trust of the public." AEI scholars have been writing about presidential succession struggles in Russia, the "Putin restoration" there, Japanese politics, and the importance of the U.S.-Japanese alliance.

• Leon Aron, John R. Bolton, Duma member Vladimir Ryzhkov, Mikhail Margelov of the Russian Federation Council, and others will speak at the September 18 conference.
• Aron's spring 2007 Russian Outlook explored the presidential succession. In subsequent issues, he compared Putin's tenure to the 1990s achievements in Russia, a theme which he picks up in the 2007 AEI Press book Russia's Revolution.
• Michael Auslin has written about what is next for Japan and what Abe's resignation means for the U.S.-Japanese alliance. He is available for comment on Abe's resignation.
• Dan Blumenthal also studies the U.S.-Japanese relationship. He recently addressed how Abe's premiership afforded an opportunity for joint engagement with China.

Laboring to Divest from Iran

Teamsters head James Hoffa has joined a growing chorus of voices intent on shedding shares of companies doing business in Iran. The Teamsters' action, conveyed in a letter to 170 fund managers on August 22, follows legislation passed by the House before the Congressional recess that would provide "safe harbor"--protection from accusation of breaching fiduciary duties--for investment managers who divest from companies doing business in the Islamic Republic. The legislation would also require the government to create a list of companies with more than $20 million invested in Iran's energy sector. One of the co-sponsors, Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), briefed reporters and Iran-watchers at AEI on July 26. AEI scholars have been examining U.S. options regarding Iran for some time, and researchers at the Institute have tracked more than $263 billion in financial transactions with Iran, all of which are available in AEI's "Global Business in Iran: Interactive" database.

• Danielle Pletka and Omeed Jafari--the lead researcher on the "Global Business in Iran" project--addressed how foreign businesses enable Iranian intransigence in the Wall Street Journal. Along with Representative Sherman, Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), and other officials and experts, Pletka spoke and Jafari moderated at the July 26 briefing.
• In his forthcoming book The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots' Quest for Destruction, Michael A. Ledeen addresses the ideological underpinnings of Iran's dangerous behavior. He will discuss his new book at a September 10 book forum. Ledeen recently wrote about the Iranian labor crackdown that prompted Hoffa's letter.
• Michael Rubin has argued that diplomatic engagement with Tehran is futile because Iran cannot be trusted.

Talking with Tehran

In the July 23, 2007, Democratic presidential debate, Senator Barack Obama promised that if elected he would meet in his first year in office with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rival Hillary Clinton called Obama's remarks "naive." But regardless of the 2008 election campaign rhetoric, engagement between the United States and the Islamic Republic is advancing apace. On July 24, ambassador-level talks were held in Baghdad on cooperation in fighting al Qaeda in Iraq, and the two countries agreed to set up a joint committee on security in Iraq, even though U.S. officials have not seen any positive action on this front from Tehran. On the contrary, Shiite militias funded and trained by Iran have ratcheted up the violence in Iraq, the regime is holding four Iranian Americans hostage on trumped-up charges, and funds continue to flow to Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations active around the world. AEI scholars have criticized the meetings--which may lead to deputy minister-level talks soon--as dangerous capitulation requiring nothing from Iran. The elephants in the room, of course, are Iran's nuclear weapons program and possible new United Nations Security Council sanctions. AEI scholars have been examining other options for dealing with the regime in Tehran.

• On July 26, the Institute held a conference on divesting from the Iranian economy. Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) were keynote speakers, and other speakers explored state-level divestiture. AEI's Global Business in Iran: Interactive database continues to be a resource for identifying companies doing business in the Islamic Republic. Danielle Pletka and Omeed Jafari addressed these issues in an op-ed earlier this summer.
• Michael Rubin has recently written about the ongoing talks with Iran. Last fall, he wrote a Middle Eastern Outlook asking: "Can Iran be trusted?"
• Michael A. Ledeen recently addressed the Tehran regime's continuing hostility to the United States and its interference in Iraq.
• John R. Bolton studies nuclear proliferation, especially with reference to Iran and North Korea. This spring, he looked at how Ahmadinejad has been testing Western resilience.

Japan's Vote, America's Choice

The Japanese parliamentary elections on July 29, 2007, took place at a time of sweeping change and challenge in Asia. Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the New Komeito, lost their combined majority, making his efforts to advance a series of domestic reforms more difficult and possibly threatening his premiership. The election is thought to have turned on domestic issues, but a significant loss could also slow Toyko's plans for closer ties among the region's democracies and its efforts to promote greater economic integration. In its latest issue, AEI's new magazine, The American, looks at Japan's economic advances and its economic and political reform agenda. This is an especially crucial time for U.S.-Japanese relations: China is challenging American leadership in Asia in ways large and small, and U.S.-Japanese cooperation at the six-party talks has broken down in recent months, sidelining Tokyo in the process. Washington needs to reinforce its crucial alliance with Tokyo.

• Michael Auslin, who joined AEI this month, previewed the parliamentary elections in the Wall Street Journal.
• Dan Blumenthal has been examining the U.S.-Japanese alliance, especially in the context of China's regional hegemonic ambitions.
• Christopher Griffin is exploring the stakes of the elections. He also recently addressed blossoming U.S.-Japanese defense relationship. Along with Blumenthal, John R. Bolton, and Nicholas Eberstadt, he spoke at an April forum on the six-party talks with North Korea, at which speakers addressed Japan's marginalization.
• In The American, Karlyn Bowman surveys what the Japanese think about themselves, the United States, and the rest of the world.

Pyongyang's Promises

On June 21, 2007, the administration's top North Korean negotiator, Christopher R. Hill, made an unannounced trip to North Korea, the first such visit by a senior administration official in five years. While the details of the visit are not fully known, the administration claims that North Korea has now agreed to shut down its main nuclear reactor after promising to do so earlier, readmit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors after booting them out of the country in 2002, and provide a listing of its other nuclear programs and facilities. These developments came after the administration acquiesced to the use of the New York Federal Reserve Bank to transfer to North Korea $25 million in previously frozen funds generated by Pyongyang’s counterfeiting and other fradulent activities. Will this quid pro quo encourage Kim Jong Il to continue to seek additional concessions from the United States? Given the North's past behavior, what verification measures are in place to ensure that it meets its new obligations? AEI scholars have been monitoring developments in the six-party talks, the erratic character and broken promises of the regime, the domestic situation in the North, and the effects of administration actions on our ally Japan.

• John R. Bolton has written about the six-party talks' ineffectiveness and Pyongyang's lack of compliance to this point. He, along with Dan Blumenthal, Nicholas Eberstadt, and Christopher Griffin, spoke at an April 5 conference assessing the talks.
• In an April op-ed, Eberstadt and Griffin identified flaws in the six-party agreement, particularly how it negatively affects Japan. Blumenthal argues that the Bush administration has neglected Japan as it pursues a solution in North Korea, to the detriment of the U.S.-Japanese alliance.
• Eberstadt and Griffin have also written about the North Korean refugee crisis. Eberstadt unveils and analyzes the shrouded North Korean economy in his latest book, in which he argues that Pyongyang's economic policy has been international military extortion--financing the regime through the threat of force.
• Kevin A. Hassett explored why and how the Federal Reserve Bank of New York participated in the transfer of frozen money to North Korea.

The Long War on Terror

In the Democratic debate on June 3, 2007, Senator Hillary Clinton disagreed with rival John Edwards's recent characterization of the "war on terror" as little more than a slogan. Clinton added, "I believe we are safer than we were [before 9/11]," but not yet "safe enough." In May, President George W. Bush issued a national security directive ordering government agencies to devise contingency plans for a surprise attack on the federal government, a course the AEI-Brookings Continuity of Government Commission has been recommending for almost five years. Adequate preparation is more urgent as January 2009 draws near, when the government will be handed over for the first time since 9/11 to a new administration and security team. The recently foiled terrorist plot against John F. Kennedy International Airport serves as a warning of how real those dangers are at home. Meanwhile, intelligence estimates abroad point to the resilience of senior al Qaeda leadership operating in Pakistan, as well as a new post-9/11 generation of terrorist operatives in Iraq and around the globe. AEI scholars have urged vigilance at home and abroad so that terrorist plots do not become terrorist acts.

• Read AEI scholars' collected research on the War on Terror.
• In their March National Security Outlook,