October 2005

After the Elections: Quo Vadis Germania

The people of Germany have spoken, but their answer was muddled. Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel both claim to have won the elections. Germany finds itself in the worst deadlock in its postwar history. How will this deadlock in Europe's biggest economy be overcome? What are the implications for the future of Germany’s reform agenda? What are the implications for the direction of Europe? The New Atlantic Initiative hosted a panel discussion on October 6 to consider these and other questions.

Dieter Dettke
Friedrich Ebert Foundation

The two major questions to be asked are why this happened and where it will take us. At this point, a few observations can be made: the West is less united and more split than before the elections; Bonn and Berlin are not comparable to the Weimar Republic; and in the current situation, a grand coalition is the only viable solution.

The main challenges for the new government will be the deficit, public finance, the federal system, education, labor cost, and labor market reform.

The two biggest parties have both lost. In the past, these two parties combined always obtained 80 percent of the votes. After the last election, however, the center has shrunk to 70 percent. The remaining 10 percent were distributed among the smaller parties: the FDP (pro-business party) and the Linkspartei (left-wing extremist party).

The electoral loss of the political center is due to the German post-industrialized society that was created under the impulse of globalization. Current German society only produces winners (those who vote for the FDP) and losers (those who vote for the Linkspartei). There are, however, winners and losers within the bigger parties as well, leading to a large degree of heterogeneity within these parties. It is for this reason that the larger parties are unable to produce strong majorities regarding important issues.

It should be noted, however, that the necessary reforms in Germany are already being supported by a political majority.

Helga Flores-Trejo
Heinrich Boell Foundation

The German elections unveiled at least four aspects of German politics: First, Germany is a country in transition, which faces a large set of reforms after its reunification. Second, both major parties (CDU/CSU, SPD) lost overall votes to the smaller parties, signaling that both cannot take their voters for granted. Third, the polarization between left and right that was embodied by Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel, did not correspond with the real divide in Germany that is between those who support reforms and those who oppose them. Fourth, East Germany is not yet fully integrated into the political system.

Ulf Gartzke
Hanns-Seidel Foundation

The German elections were a mixed bag for Germany’s conservatives. CDU/CSU won the elections, but they failed to secure a parliamentary majority large enough to form a coalition government with the FDP. Because CDU/CSU managed to become the biggest parliamentary group, they will take the lead in forming a future coalition government.

The top priorities for a potential CDU/CSU/SPD government are cutting Germany’s budget deficit, reforming Germany’s federalist system, creating new jobs, and reviving economic growth.

Claus Gramckow
Friedrich Naumann Foundation

The German elections have two winners: the FDP and the Linkspartei. Both parties won the election because of their clear programs. While the FDP was running on a reform campaign, the Linkspartei ran on an anti-reform campaign. Inconsistencies and contradictions within themselves led to the defeat of the other parties.

Current talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD about forming a “grand coalition” are almost exclusively focused on people, not substance. Moreover, even if both parties are able to form a grand coalition, the policy outcome from such a coalition will most likely represent the lowest common denominators between them and not lead to true reform.