December 2004

Ukraine's Choice: Europe or Russia?

Oleh Rybachuk

Sander M. Levin

The Ukrainian Supreme Court has decided that the November runoff election was falsified, and on December 26, Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych will face each other again in a repeat of the second round of the Ukrainian presidential elections. The outcome will likely determine Ukraine's destiny for years to come. The decision raises many issues: Will the winner, whomever he may be, reunite the country? Can Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" be an example to follow for other countries in the region? Will Ukraine opt for integration with the West or with the Commonwealth of Independent States? On December 10, the International Human Rights Day, the New Atlantic Initiative at the American Enterprise Institute and our partners, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Freedom House, the International Republican Institute, the National Endowment for Democracy, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, organized a conference that sought to address these questions and assess Ukraine's geopolitical orientation after the presidential elections.

Welcoming Remarks

Radek Sikorski, executive director, NAI
Paula Dobriansky, under secretary of state for global affairs
Oleh Shamshur, deputy minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine

The events that recently took place in Ukraine are the result of the massive democratic transformations that the Ukrainian society undertook since the end of the Cold War. Despite irregularities and fraud during the campaign and voting, Ukrainian civil institutions passed the test for democracy. The supreme court ruling and the majority of the Ukrainian mass media decisively supported the "Orange Revolution." Ukrainians know that they will be the main actors in building a democratic and prosperous country, but also acknowledge that the support provided by their partners will play a fundamental role in the future of Ukraine. A democracy in the heart of Europe is beneficial for both the United States and the Euro-Atlantic community. The respect for international democratic standards and for the will of Ukrainian people will be the ingredients for a successful resolution of this crisis.

Ukraine's Economy: Converging with the European Union or with the Common Economic Space?

Valery Pyatnyskyi, first deputy minister of economy and European integration of Ukraine
Pawel Wolowski, director for Ukraine, Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw
Larysa Denysenko, program director, Transparency International–Kiev office
Oleksandr Sushko, director, Center for Peace, Conversion, and Foreign Policy of Ukraine
Donald Jensen, director of communications, RFE/RL

Convergence with the Common Economic Space (CES) is not an attractive option for Ukraine. The country aspires to WTO accession, and integration with the CES would frustrate this objective. A European Union of twenty-five members is an attractive market for Ukrainian business. Thus far President Kuchma has not yet taken a decisive step in either direction, and the electorate is ambivalent on the matter. The CES treaty is not in accord with the Ukrainian constitution as it stands, and it cannot be implemented without constitutional amendment. Ukraine needs to decide where it stands. At the same time, the Ukrainian economy needs structural changes, including separating big businesses and politics. If the Ukrainian economy is to succeed, it needs to cease being an "insider's community" and open itself to the international competition.

Successes and Failures of Ukraine's Civil Society

Roman Kupchinsky, former director, RFE/RL's Ukrainian Broadcasting Service
Vyacheslav Briukhovetsky, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
Adrian Karatnycky, counselor and senior scholar, Freedom House
Inna Pidluska, president, Europe XXI Foundation
Vladimir Kara-Murza, cofounder, Free Choice 2008 Committee of Russia
Paula Schriefer, director of programs, Freedom House
Nadia Diuk, director for Central Europe and Eurasia, NED

An irreversible process of self-identification has characterized Ukraine in the past fifteen years. This process has drastically changed the face of Ukrainian society. Its success is due to the growth of volunteer movements, the education of voters, who became aware of the risks of fraud during the elections, and finally to the capacity of civil society to organize itself and to stand up to political manipulation. Ukraine sets an example for all the neighboring countries, and in particular for Russia, whose government has tried to influence the election results. While the Russian government and Vladimir Putin were working to foist "managed democracy" on Ukraine, the Russian opposition led by Boris Nemtsov rose to the occasion and took Viktor Yushchenko's side. This shows that what is taking place in Ukraine is not a geopolitical choice between East and West, but a choice between two different systems--authoritarian and democratic. The Russian people did not stand up when their moment came, in the falsified election of 2000 which brought Vladimir Putin to the presidency, and they are now paying the consequences under his increasingly authoritarian rule. But freedom for the Ukrainian people would help bring about freedom for Russia.

Keynote Speeches

Representative Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.), cochair of the Congressional Ukrainian Caucus
Oleh Rybachuk, chief of staff for Viktor Yushchenko

A major consequence of the 2004 presidential elections has been that Ukrainians are now looking to Kiev and not to Moscow to take direction about their country. The United States could help this process by encouraging Euro-Atlantic integration for Ukraine and by making clear to Vladimir Putin that further interference in Ukraine will not be tolerated. The American government should also invest more money in supporting Ukrainian civil society. The involvement of the Ukrainian-American Diaspora in this process could lead to some positive results as well.

Viktor Yanukovych's campaign has been responsible for massive fraud, and the Ukrainian people showed that they are not afraid to stand up to the authorities who wanted to steal their right to democracy. In addressing the conference, Oleh Rybachuk stated that Viktor Yushchenko will lead his country on the path to the West, pursuing both NATO and EU membership. He will not divide the country; he will unify it. The new Yushchenko's government will rethink the ties between politics and business in Ukraine and prosecute corruption and crime at all levels.

Ukraine's Armed Forces: On the Way to Join NATO?

James Sherr, UK Defense Academy
Igor S. Kozii, head, general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces, department for Euro-Atlantic integration
Major General Nicholas Krawciw, U.S. Army, retired
Radek Sikorski, executive director, NAI; resident fellow, AEI

Ukraine has fulfilled most of the criteria required of a future NATO member. Years of training since the end of the Cold War have established a high level of professionalism among its armed forces, which are loyal to their country and will not turn against the Ukrainian people. NATO should make clear to the next Ukrainian government that membership is a feasible option, and it should establish possible a support group soon to provide Ukraine with essential guidance on its way toward membership.

A Geopolitical Assessment

Ron Asmus, senior transatlantic fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States
William Green Miller, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine
James Sherr, UK Defense Academy
Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine

During the events that recently occurred in Ukraine, the country proved to have a strong democratic society. In the last fifteen years Ukraine's approach to governance has changed, and today's event are the result of this continuous change. The United States has a vital interest in a stable and democratic Ukraine. This is why the American government should reset priorities in its economic assistance towards Kiev and engage Ukrainians at every government and non-governmental level. A Yushchenko presidency would be a great opportunity to advance the vision of a stable and democratic Ukraine, and to bring Ukraine closer to European institutions and NATO. The European Union should adopt a more proactive approach towards Ukraine as well. A possible strategy would be to hold an early Ukrainian summit and promote early progress towards a free trade agreement. The use of a rhetorical device similar to NATO's "open door" for the European Union would also be very appropriate. Finally, Russia has two choices in its approaches toward Ukraine: it can choose to have the natural influence typical of a neighbor country, or it can choose not to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and independence. The latter choice will undermine the relationship with the United States and compromise the U.S.-Russia agenda. Finally, the worst-case scenario for both Ukraine and Europe would be for Viktor Yushchenko to achieve victory but fail in governing his country.