Tuesday, May 1, 2001
Wohlstetter Conference Center
American Enterprise Institute
Speakers:
Jeffrey Gedmin, New Atlantic Initiative and American Enterprise Institute
Henry Hyde, U.S. House of Representatives (R-IL)
George Pataki, Governor of New York
Jeane Kirkpatrick, American Enterprise Institute
Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary
John O'Sullivan, New Atlantic Initiative and United Press International
[TRANSCRIPT PREPARED FROM A TAPE RECORDING.]
MR. GEDMIN: [In progress] -- Institute, and I'm also executive director of the New Atlantic Initiative.
It's my sincere pleasure to welcome Prime Minister Orban, a distinguished group of guests on this podium, and many other distinguished colleagues and associates in the audience, from Dr. Brzezinski to the Hungarian Ambassador and others, too many to mention all by name.
We are here to welcome Viktor Orban to Washington. I was delighted to hear that when he decided, agreed, accepted our invitation to come here and accept our award and deliver a speech here, that he was also kind enough this afternoon to make time for the President of the United States and the Vice President, and maybe he will tell you a little bit about that meeting.
We have a terrific group of colleagues to set the program up and help introduce the Prime Minister. Let me without further delay introduce the first, but I should also mention to you that because of time constraints, Chairman Hyde, who is with us--and I'm delighted--will have to race back momentarily to the Hill for votes. And Governor Pataki, who came down from New York, from Albany, from New York City, just to be with us for this program, has to race back to New York momentarily, and he, too, will have to disappear a little bit early. So I thank them both for their presence.
But let me simply mention that I am delighted that Henry Hyde can be with us today. He is, as you know, the chairman of the House International Relations Committee. He has been a member of this committee since 1982, and for years in Washington, he has had a lot to say about a range of issues, from international arms control to communism in Latin and Central America, to terrorism. I should add he has also been a ranking Republican member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence.
And so, with all that experience, with all that interest and contribution to this area, foreign policy and this Atlantic relationship in particular, I'm glad to welcome him here and invite him to take the podium and offer a few introductory remarks.
Chairman Hyde, please.
[Applause.]
MR. HYDE: Thank you very much. It's an occupational hazard that all day in the House of Representatives there is impassioned debate but no votes. And then in the evening, when things are happening, we have votes. So, unfortunately, I shall have to leave. But it is a great honor to be here at this marvelous occasion honoring Viktor Orban. He is a very young man, but he has already accomplished more than many leaders twice his age.
Many members of my generation thought we'd never live to see the restoration of freedom to the people behind the Iron Curtain. But thanks to the leadership and courage of men like Viktor Orban, the skeptics were proven wrong. All of us on both side of the former Iron Curtain are deeply indebted to him and his colleagues.
Viktor Orban was born in 1963 and grew up knowing only the communist dictatorship that had been imposed on his nation by the Soviet Union. In 1989, he gave a speech before several hundred thousand of his countrymen, demanding the withdrawal of the Soviet occupation troops from Hungary, the end of communist rule, and free elections. His speech electrified the people of Hungary and helped galvanize the wave of democracy that swept across Central and Eastern Europe in 1989.
He subsequently helped negotiate the legal framework for Hungary's transition to democracy, founded a conservative political party, and was elected to the Hungarian parliament. Along the way, he joined with some of the people in this room to become a founding member of the New Atlantic Initiative.
In 1998, Viktor Orban was elected Prime Minister of Hungary. He was an early advocate of Hungarian accession to NATO, and once in office, he battled ambivalent public opinion in Hungary to convince Hungarians that NATO's actions in Kosovo were not only justified but necessary.
Today, he's the successful leader of one of the few center-right governments in Europe. Due to his steadfast commitment to free market principles, Hungary has become one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe. U.S. investors have demonstrated their confidence in his leadership, providing the single largest source of foreign investment in Hungary.
Here in Washington, he has met with President Bush and Vice President Cheney. One of the top items on his agenda is the next round of NATO enlargement, which is to be decided at the NATO Summit late next year.
Given that Hungary is the only NATO member in Europe that does not border other members of the alliance, it's not surprising that Prime Minister Orban favors extending NATO membership to some of Hungary's neighbors. He has also taken an interest in NATO membership for the Baltic States, however, which can only be understood as part of his strategic vision for enhancing stability and security in Europe.
Let's hope that he can impart some of this vision to others here in the United States as well as in Europe, who so far have not answered the urgent question of how NATO will deliver next year on the promise made at the Madrid Summit in 1997 to maintain an open door to the new democracies in Central and Eastern Europe who wish to join the alliance.
It's now my privilege to yield the floor to Governor George Pataki of New York and Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, who will present the New Atlantic Initiative Freedom Award. It's a great honor to be here, and I wish godspeed to Viktor Orban.
[Applause.]
MR. PATAKI: Mr. Chairman, those were wonderful words, and to Secretary Kirkpatrick, Secretary Brzezinski, and all the distinguished guests here this evening, [yo estay kivanok (ph).]. That's "Good evening" for those of you who don't speak any Hungarian, like me. I barely manage to get by with a few words. But it's an honor to be here with Prime Minister Orban tonight, and I want to thank Jeff Gedmin for what, Jeffrey, you have done with the New Atlantic Initiative.
The New Atlantic Initiative is doing an excellent, excellent job in promoting not just democratic ideals in the former Soviet Republics, but also working to build closer ties between Europe, as it becomes more integrated, and America--not just the United States but North America. I think that's an extremely important task. So, Jeff, congratulations to you and the New Atlantic Initiative.
I'm honored to be here tonight with Secretary Kirkpatrick to help present the Freedom Award to Viktor Orban. You know, those of us who were born and raised and spent all our lives in America too often take freedom for granted. We just assume that it's always been there and that it always will be there. But that's not the way the world works, and that's certainly not the way the world has worked in Hungary, not just in the 20th century but before that as well.
Chairman Hyde talked about how Viktor Orban in 1989, in June of that year, went in Heroes' (ph) Square in Budapest before hundreds of thousands of people and made the demand for free elections and removal of the Soviet troops and the creation of a democracy in his homeland of Hungary. And Americans probably don't appreciate the courage that that represented. Because if you think back on the history of Hungary, in 1848 there was a great patriot by the name of Lajos Kossuth, who led Hungarians in the cause of freedom, and for months they believed they had achieved that freedom. Ultimately, it was crushed, and it was crushed with devastating results for those who led that effort at freedom.
And much more recently, I can recall October of 1956, when I was a young child at home with my parents, watching television as, for days, it appeared that Hungary had achieved the dream of freedom that had been denied it for so long. But then the Soviet tanks came rolling into Budapest, and that desire for freedom, that effort to achieve freedom was lost. And those who led that rebellion, those who led the effort to achieve democracy, were killed by the Soviet forces.
So Viktor Orban, in 1989, was not just raising another voice for democracy in Heroes' Square. He was showing enormous courage, an enormous belief in the concept of freedom and a willingness to sacrifice his life in pursuit of that freedom.
And beyond that, having worked to achieve that, he has then devoted himself to making sure that the promise of freedom becomes the reality of his country. And that is extremely important. For those of us who expect that the natural progress of things is towards less government and more freedom and less centralized economies and more exchange of open ideas and open trade, it is not an inevitable course, and it requires people like Viktor Orban to give of their efforts, to give their lives, not just to achieving freedom but to then making freedom work.
So it's an honor to be here tonight with the Prime Minister of Hungary. It's an honor to be here with the Secretary and with Jeff to help present the first Freedom Award to the Prime Minister. The Freedom Award is aimed at perpetuating Ronald Reagan's goal of expanding the frontiers of freedom. In choosing Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the NAI has made the right choice and sent the right message: that freedom is something we must look to fight for every single day.
So it's an honor being with you, it's an honor to have had the chance to come down from New York. And, Mr. Prime Minister, I am delighted to be here this evening with you.
Thank you very much. [Hungarian].
[Applause.]
MS. KIRKPATRICK: There are many introducers here tonight, and I'm pleased to have the opportunity to participate in this string of introductions, Mr. Prime Minister, and of congratulations to you for the major work that you have done on behalf of freedom in Hungary and in Central Europe and in Eastern Europe, and that you will continue to do. And I'm delighted to share with all of us, everyone, friends of AEI and of the New Atlantic Initiative, my personal admiration for Prime Minister Viktor Orban for his unflagging courage and his many efforts on behalf of freedom in his country and in his region and, indeed, in the world.
I agree entirely with Governor Pataki that it's easy for us to forget how dangerous such enterprises are. To stand in the face of thousands of people and demand the removal of Soviet troops from Hungary required a very great deal of courage. It's the kind of courage that did, in fact, encourage the Soviet Union to withdraw its forces in Hungary and elsewhere in Central Europe. And that kind of courage has characterized the establishment of democratic institutions in Hungary and, indeed, throughout Central Europe and Eastern Europe.
And I just want to say on behalf of my colleagues here at AEI and my colleagues, especially Jeff Gedmin and John O'Sullivan, in the efforts to establish a New Atlantic Initiative that it's a very great honor to me to present to you--the third person who is presenting the Prime Minister--this man who has fought for democracy in his own country, who has advocated the enlargement of NATO, and not only advocated it but joined as one of the very first countries who was invited into NATO and who accepted that and who has already demonstrated the utility and importance of that membership to NATO, not just to Hungary but to NATO in the accomplishment of its goals.
We will, I think, have continuing need for persons with this kind of courage and this kind of freedom and this kind of commitment to a reinforced Atlantic Initiative.
Thank you.
[Applause.]
[Pause.]
MR. GEDMIN: I'd now like to read the Freedom Medal. First it has a quote from Ronald Reagan: "The North Atlantic Alliance is the most successful in history. While other alliances have been formed to win wars, our fundamental purpose is to prevent wars while preserving and extending the frontiers of freedom. Ronald Reagan, the Freedom Award, in recognition of a leader devoted to preserving and rebuilding the frontiers of and extending the frontiers of freedom, May 1, 2001, presented to His Excellency Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of the Republic of Hungary." Mr. Prime Minister.
[Applause.]
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: [Click here for a transcript of the Orbán Address at Receiving Freedom Award]
[Applause.]
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Prime Minister, thank you for a very wide-ranging speech which has provoked a lot of questions. Before I come to the question time, though, could I once again thank Governor Pataki, whom I know has to leave almost immediately. We're extremely grateful for your presence and what you said.
[Applause.]
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Could I also say, announce now that at the end of our session this afternoon, there will be a small wine and cheese reception to which you are all invited.
My name, incidentally, is John O'Sullivan. I'm one of the co-founders of the New Atlantic Initiative along, as it happens, with Mr. Orban. So we now have the opportunity at the invitation of the Prime Minister to move on to questions and dialogue, and I see many distinguished foreign policy people in the audience and some distinguished Hungarian Americans. Who would like to raise the first question? Mr. Walker?
MR. WALKER: Gerhard Schroeder, the German Chancellor, yesterday spelled out his own proposals for the future constitution of the European Union. And as an almost imminent member of that European Union, do you think that your country and the other candidate members have been given an adequate say in the way that Europe is being redefined? And do you think that you're also getting an adequate say in the way in which NATO enlargement is already being discussed?
Finally, specifically, do you think that all three of the Baltic States should become full members of NATO next year?
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: For a Prime Minister, the questions are really difficult, not exactly because of the topic touched upon, but to avoid how to answer straightforwardly.
[Laughter.]
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: That makes complicated any response to your question. So as you just have rightly said, Hungary would like to get inside the European Union, which means that we need all the votes of already member states of the union. So we have to be very careful to confrontate with any ideas which are raised inside the European Union. So because sometimes we have a feeling that there is a selection or could be in the future a selection which is based upon what kind of ideas we share about the future of European Union, like the question you just have mentioned, the constitution, do we need any European constitution? It's still an open question. It was never discussed in Hungary. It has never been discussed in Hungary.
You know, I belong to the more cautious politicians in Europe, so first we have to define what is the purpose for which we would like to create a constitution. And then getting back our national sovereignty just in recent time, you know, we very much like our own constitution. So we have to clarify what could be the relationship between our national constitution, which is approved by our parliament and by our nation, and a constitution which is a common one to all the European nations. So I would like to be very much cautious on these ideas.
The issue you just have mentioned is enlargement. Hanna Suchocka, who was an excellent Prime Minister in Poland, had a saying that the Central European nations are always five years away from being a member of European Union. And that was the case in the '90s.
Now there are some changes. The Nice Summit was a breakthrough or could be later on evaluated as a breakthrough because that's the first time ever that the European Union nations at least mentioned a date, saying that the best prepared countries should be part of the election, European election 2004. And if they would like really us to take part in election 2004, we have to conclude our negotiations at least 2003, which means probably that we have to conclude the toughest part of our negotiations in the second part as latest date in 2002. So it's a hard job, especially taking into consideration that on the most complicated issues there is no position of the European Union. And, you know, it's difficult to negotiate with somebody who has no position on the topic.
I just would like to mention agriculture. There is no common position of the European Union on agriculture. Or, second, you just mentioned Chancellor Schroeder. He raised his idea about how to handle the difficulty of free movement of labor. But there is no common position of European Union on the free movement of labor. We know the German position, even the Austrian one, but there is no common European Union position. It's difficult to negotiate.
And the final question you just raised is Baltic States. So a nation which has a '56 in its history cannot argue against the membership of Baltic States. If there is any nation now in Europe which physically has a real need to have a shield above him--or them, they are the Baltic States.
So because of my heart and because of my mind, I would like to argue in favor of membership of Baltic States. The only question you raised was not exactly that one, but you just said at the same time all three. That was your remark. I think, Why not? What we should state as clear as possible, especially to the Russians, that in enlargement of NATO belongs to two actors: the country which would like to apply and NATO, which will decide about it. Not any room for a third part.
This discussion happened exactly several years ago when the first wave of enlargement was discussed. It was discussed even here in the United States. I was here for campaigning of Hungarian membership, and this issue was raised again and again, what will be the reaction of Russia. I think it's an important issue. We have to make clear to everybody that NATO enlargement is not against them. But at the same time, we have to declare clearly that that belongs to NATO and the countries who would like to apply.
So all three countries would like to apply. Let them get into the alliance. That's the Hungarian position. Thank you.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: I'm now going to take questions in order of three, so if people would like to raise their hands, I will ask the young lady with the microphone to go to each of them in turn. The next question, the gentleman here, and then the lady further down the row, and finally the gentleman in the back.
MR. : Yes, thank you, Prime Minister, for your speech. I wanted to raise the question about the relationship which you mentioned between Russia and Ukraine, and I felt that--some worries on your country's part in the relationship. Can you please explain this somewhat further to us that are not as familiar with this relationship? We are reading also some things in the papers. We are reading about the political situation in Ukraine. But there seems to be in your voice some--that you were afraid that might happen, that Ukraine would join Russia again or something like that.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Could you pass the microphone to your right?
MS. : Nana Yuria (ph) (?) . I really am very pleased to have heard your talk. I was very impressed as a fellow Hungarian. I was curious if you could then address as a follow-on from that this issue of strategic assets and how Hungary can fight against that, the taking back of strategic assets by Russia.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: And finally the gentleman at the back.
MR. : Roy Guttman (ph) of Newsweek. Again, on the Ukraine, could you please elaborate on your point that the West and NATO ought to reach out to the Ukraine? What exactly would you suggest? I don't think you want to go so far as to invite them into NATO, but how far should the--there's already an association relationship with NATO. So please give us your specifics on that.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Prime Minister?
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: So I have to be cautious again very much, you know. I have a strong vision on the difficulty of Ukraine, but I'm not a citizen of Ukraine, so I have to be very careful to make any comment on them. Probably it's too late now, but, anyway...
The first is that day by day politicians who are known as advocates of Ukraine which should have stronger ties to the transatlantic world, let's say, in this way, they are just losing their position -- [tape ends].
T1B -- when the Foreign Minister lost his position, and now we have a new one. And then just recently the Prime Minister, Yuschenko, who was a good partner to us, anyway, in many issues and we had a very flourishing cooperation with him, now he is not the Prime Minister anymore.
And our feeling is that the persons who are just coming out are more or less--let's say less and less Western-oriented politicians. It's not our job to make this evaluation, but somehow the impression not just in the mind of politicians but in the whole Central Europe is the same.
The second is that there are some strategic branches of industry in Ukraine, and looking at the ownership of these branches of industry, more and more Russian companies are appearing. This is another sign which is clearly a warning sign.
So I would not like to make any doubts about that it is a legitimate right of the Ukrainian people to decide about their own leaders and about the orientation of their own country. So what I just would like to underline again and again, that the special position of Ukraine, let's say the independence and full sovereignty of Ukraine, is the cornerstone of the European architecture. So this is my point.
And, you know, Hungary is not the biggest country in Europe, and taking into consideration how big the difficulties are in Ukraine, as I just tried to elaborate here previously, we need a transatlantic cooperation to find an idea how to deal with this situation.
And I am not speaking about a political solution. What I try to argue in favor of is economy. So that, and projects financed by West European nations and NATO nations, that could be a solution. But it's very difficult to put together. And at the same time, we have to be very cautious because, you know, aid does not work. They are just disappearing. What we do need is more investment, and probably some aid with pre-conditions, very strict pre-conditions.
So what we should do is really to have the Ukrainians to increase in a perceivable way the living standard of their people and to provide an alternative which can be demonstrated to the voters that Ukraine has a chance to provide better life and living standard for their citizens when there is a living partnership to the transatlantic world.
The next question was? Sorry. Strategic industries.
You know, we are a great supporter of free trade, and Hungary is quite an open country in terms of trade as well. Eighty percent of the Hungarian export is moving now, is directing now to the European Union markets. And Hungarian economic growth is inspired and the engine behind it is export, which means that economically the country is very much open. So we would not like to use, as I just have mentioned, any kind of discrimination of the investments and capital in the Hungarian economy on the basis of its national origin.
But at the same time, we have to make stronger our institutions, control institutions, which has to deal with the investments. And we have good systems, anyway. We copied the West European systems, how to control investment, how to provide transparency. So we have that kind of mechanism.
But the difficulty is that sometimes West European companies are involved, offshore companies, for example, from the United States are involved as well, or Ireland. So all this financial world is more complicated than it would be easy to trace by the Hungarian authorities.
But, anyway, this is the only way to keep transparent the Hungarian economy. It's not just because of our sovereignty. It's because of the transparency of the Hungarian economy. If the Hungarian economy will be not sufficiently transparent, no American or West European investors will come. So that's the reason why we have to behave very carefully, but at the same time very determinedly, towards Russian investments in Hungary. But, anyway, Russian investments are welcome as well in Hungary. But oil industry, gas industry, chemical industry sometimes are in danger in Hungary, and a lot of discussions are going on in the public speeches, in the public opinion, about how to behave under these conditions.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Thank you. Can I then take three more sets of questions? Mr. Bergeny (ph), the gentleman in front, and then the gentleman behind. Mr. Bergeny, the fourth row?
MR. : Thank you. I think peace and tranquility in the Central European region will largely depend on the fate of the very, very patient Hungarian minorities, ethnic minorities, especially in Slovakia, Romania, not to mention some others. Do you see a realistic hope that as these countries try to get into NATO and into the European Union, they are going to change their treatment of Hungarians?
MR. O'SULLIVAN: The gentleman in front.
MR. : Mr. Prime Minister, I've read in the papers that there is a good chance that the Socialist Party, which is successor party to the Communist Party, according to the Financial Times and the New York Times, may win the next elections. If that--
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: It's [inaudible]--
[Laughter.]
MR. : --should be the case--I know you and everybody hopes it will not be--how would that affect the relations between your country and the Atlantic community, particularly with respect to exports and relations with rogue nations--Syria, et cetera?
MR. O'SULLIVAN: And there's finally a question at the back.
MR. : I wanted to thank you very much for coming, first of all, and my question is: As you mentioned, 80 percent of the trade is with the European Union. What impact or what will be the effect, once Hungary joins the European Union, with trade with the United States? And also to build on the political question, what are you doing to build your party so that--you know, I think some of the confusion in some countries is that there are too many political parties, whereas in the United States you can have a good sense of maybe, you know, this party or this party. What are you doing to build on that question to develop your party to be kind of a party that one can turn to and kind of--you know, recognize?
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: Minorities. Speaking about enlargement of NATO, we have to admit that some historical accidents happened when the first wave of enlargement took place. The first is Slovenia. Nobody knows why Slovenia is not a member of NATO. It would be important for Hungary because Hungary is NATO island now. We have not any physical contact or common border with any other member states of NATO. So Slovenia is obviously a candidate for membership in NATO. We have just a small minority in Slovenia, and we have no difficulties with them.
Slovakia is another obvious candidate. I would advocate this idea as well, regardless that in the political life still some anti-democratic political parties are present. But the present government is definitely not this kind, so it has a true commitment to the Western values and Western orientation. And it would be useful not to have that hole between Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary, and Slovakia somehow could fill this vacuum.
I would like to recall your memories what kind of speculations and real developments happened in Slovakia when an Eastern-oriented government was in power just even three years ago. So the national interest of Hungary having Slovakia similarly involved into NATO.
The minorities in Slovakia, that's a tricky question now because, you know, they are involved into the government. So the Hungarian minority party is a member of the Slovakian government, and they are highly appreciated even by the Slovaks. So the situation of the Hungarian minority is far better now in Slovakia than it was ever in the last decades or the latest decades.
But there is one issue which is now, it seems to me, strong on the surface, and this is the new administration system of Slovakia, because, you know, it's always reorganized the territories, and it's sensitive to the minorities. This discussion is going on. Sometimes the Hungarian party raise the possibility leaving the coalition, but it did not happen or hasn't happened up to now. So we hope that they will find a solution. So I think the minority issue in the case of Slovakia is not a real obstacle being involved into the NATO. But there are some other pre-conditions as well, and they have to fulfill them also.
This is the case with Romania as well and I would not like to go into details now because they have a new government and we have to wait a little bit to understand what is the real character of this new government.
The previous Romanian government was very pro-NATO, and the Hungarian party was involved into that Romanian government. But this is not the case anymore, and we are not able to understand exactly what will be the direction of the next government. But we hope that they will continue the previous government track in foreign policy.
United States and EU. I think we lost an opportunity somewhere in the beginning of the '90s. At the beginning of the '90s, the historical question to the European Union nations arose: Are they ready to enlarge the European Union as soon as possible and to accept those countries which historically always belonged to the Western community, like Poland, Czech Republic, or at that time Czechoslovakia, and Hungary? And the decision, the strategical decision of European Union was not to accept new countries, but deepen the cooperation of all of the member states of European Union. And that was a moment when the Hungarian government and probably some others--but it's not my job, but at least that was a moment when the Hungarian government should have decided on free trade agreement with the United States. And we lost that momentum. And now we are very close being member of European Union, as I just tried to describe the possibility of a framework, a time framework. You know, it's one, two years, 2003, 2004. And now, you know, our relation to the United States will be shaped and formed through the European Union.
So now there is just very limited room for maneuvering in economic trade relation. Unfortunately, we lost the right momentum. It's sad. It's a pity.
Speaking about the political parties, if you don't mind, I would not like to go into details about party discussions in Hungary. We have strong traditions on that. But, basically, there is a coinciding point of the national character of the Hungarians and the Anglo-Saxon people. Both nation is based on common sense. And we Hungarians are very strong in that.
I would not like to travel back to the history too much, but I just would like to remind you that Hungary and Britain was the only--Great Britain was the only country in Europe until the Second World War having no written constitution because the common sense was total enough to organize a constitutional life, and the traditions plus the common sense.
So I think because we have a common sense, we will have a two-party system. And the direction of the political developments in Hungary is exactly this one.
Now we have a political camp that can be characterized as liberal, leftist liberal, socialist, reform communist, whatever. It's complicated but, you know, this is a political camp in Hungary. And we have a central-right one, Christian Democrats conservatives, liberal conservatives. And the tendency is very clear. Probably as a result of the next election in Hungary we will be a bipartisan system, a two-partisan system.
Even now the practice is that one. So we have two huge parties, and the smaller ones are organized around these two parties. So I think this is the main advantage of Hungary now comparing with other Central European countries probably, that Hungary is the only country that the governments always served over their four-year terms. There was never any change of the governments without having an election, and we always have an election just after four-year times. It's a great advantage. And that's the reason why we are moving now to the two-partisan system, two-party system, and I think it's good for the nation as well.
So speaking about the Socialist Party, I think the foreign policy of the Socialist Party in Hungary is Western oriented. So there is not any reason to think that if any kind of change in the government would be resulted in a change in foreign policy. I don't think so. But, anyway, I'm not in favor of this change in the government either.
[Laughter.]
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: Because it followed the same track, so there is no sense of any change. But if I may say so, I think Hungary could be the first country. I'm interested in what will be the outcome of the election in Bulgaria. Probably Bulgaria will be the first one. If not Bulgaria, Hungary. If Bulgaria would be the first, Hungary could be the second country where first time an elected government can be re-elected for the next term as well. That could be the second step to a stability as well. Bulgaria and Hungary equally need that stability.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Thank you. This will have to be the last batch of three questions. Would people raise their hands? The lady right at the back. Another lady right at the back.
MS. : [Hungarian] My question is this: What do you think that the Hungarian-American diaspora here in the States can do to help to help the Hungarian situation?
MR. O'SULLIVAN: And then another lady just here, behind you.
MS. : Fran Burwell (ph), the Atlantic Council. I wanted to return to your comments on ESDP and ask whether the most recent statements by the EU about participation by non-EU members were satisfactory to Hungary. Are you satisfied with the way the participation debate is going as far as the development of EU military capabilities, should they ever be used? Thank you.
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: Would you be so kind to repeat the first part of your question? (?)-ation is not obvious to me. Sorry.
MS. : I just wanted to return to your comments about ESDP, European Security and Defense Policy.
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: Okay, ESDI.
MS. : And particularly the participation issue, and if you're happy with--if Hungary is happy with the arrangements that the EU is currently proposing.
MR. O'SULLIVAN: And, finally, is there one other question? Yes, the gentleman there.
MR. : Very simple question. My name is Bill Crowley with Institute for Defense Analysis. In your view, what is the single greatest threat to the security of your country right now that you would need to deal with as the Prime Minister?
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Prime Minister?
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: First, diaspora. The Hungarian nation is a mystical one, so nobody knows what does it constitute, really. And I think the language is the answer to this question, and I think the main job to the Hungarian government, to have the diaspora--that was not the question, but, anyway, you know, all coins have two sides--to have the diaspora to maintain the knowledge of the Hungarian language. Without having that knowledge, it's difficult to find your right relation to Hungary.
On the other hand, what we do need is a strong lobby group here in the United States. So simple. United States will remain an important partner for Hungary. I hope that the presence of United States in Europe will be stronger than it is just now, and not weaker. The outcome of political developments here in the United States can affect, not directly because Hungary is a sovereign state, but indirectly can have an impact on our political and economic life. So we are interested in having a good government here in Hungary--here in the United States which have a good relation to Hungary. So a strong lobby group, that's very important.
And because the Hungarian nation is complicated and the Carpathian base in political circumstances are almost un-understandable to the foreigners, we need a lobby group here which is able to explain to the Americans, even to the Senate, even to the Congress, even to the Office of the President and the Vice President, what the discussions are going on about. So because of the complexity of our situation, a strong lobby group can help a lot for Hungary.
Greatest threat. I had a similar question of your President today. He asked which is the greatest challenge or threat to us, and I said we don't have any, so it's a boring country.
[Laughter.]
PRIME MINISTER ORBAN: Which was just partly true, I have to admit. In security terms, I do not see any kind of an immediate threat. Hungary is a member of NATO. You know, we are over the baptism of fire because we were involved just after one week joining NATO in the air campaign against Yugoslavia. So we feel now that we are a full member, a real member of NATO. You know, that situation was quite complicated because we have a lot of minorities living in Voivodina (ph), which is part of Serbia, more than 300,000. And that was a real threat that probably some provocation could happen, and the reaction of the Hungarian government could be very difficult under those conditions.
But we survived anyway without this kind of deeper involvement into the physical conflict, and NATO proved to be a useful alliance for us. And this is not just the evaluation of the Hungarian government. This is the evaluation of the Hungarian people. Hungary is a country in which we had a referendum on NATO membership, and we got more than 85 percent. Eighty-five percent. It's difficult to imagine any other country in Europe in which a government--or the idea of being a member of NATO can get more than 85 percent.
So I think the feeling, the general feeling in Hungary is that there is no immediate security threat around us. But we are very much interested in how the great powers reconstruct or reorganize themselves, and in that respect, Russia is important always for us. You know, we are in between East and West. And we would not like, again, to be part of any kind of buffer zone. That would be disastrous for Hungary, as it proved to be in the middle war period. So, therefore, we have to have a close attention to what's going on over there.
ESDI or the ESDP, I just tried to explain that the Hungarians are quite innovative. Therefore, if you like, any kind of new ideas, even on security terms and security policy. But we understood that the American presence is a key element to the security of the Central European nations, and we would not like to see now any kind of European defense or security policy which would not like to involve the United States in the European security architecture.
So all kinds of discussions are useful, but we should not undermine the capabilities of NATO. Mr. Brzezinski, when he visited a half year ago Budapest, he delivered a very inspiring speech about what kind of bad consequences could be any kind of duplication of structures, a European structure and NATO structure, and we accept this point. And I think we should advocate only European defense ideas inside the European Union which does not undermine the capability of NATO.
Look back at Hungarian history. The question is how seriously we can think that a unified European foreign policy and defense policy can be operative in complicated regions like Balkans or Central Europe. Look at the Yugoslavian crisis. Speaking honestly, the European Union and the European defense policy was not able to cope with the challenge which arose from there. So without America, believe me, probably even a war would be there. So I think that's the number one priority or should be the number one priority to all Central European nations.
Finally, thank you very much again for the invitation. I would like to say thank you very much to the New Atlantic Initiative which was--I would like to just let you know this, that it was a very important organization to organize the campaign in Hungary in favor of NATO membership, and we do remember that we established together this initiative. And it was a good idea, especially because it's happened in a nice restaurant in Budapest, which is always (?) nice ideas. And I thank you very much just not on behalf of my person, because of that nice award I just have got, but on behalf of the Hungarian nation as well that we have a lot of friends and partners here in the United States who helped a lot to convince the political leadership of the United States and who helped to convince the Hungarian people that the cooperation inside the NATO and the alliance of the two nations through the NATO could be a fruitful one for both of us.
So thank you very much again for the invitation and for the work you have just done in the recent years. Thank you very much again.
[Applause.]
MR. O'SULLIVAN: Prime Minister, ladies and gentlemen, I want to thank on your behalf Prime Minister Orban for a splendid address and for answering your questions so fully and completely. I want to say I could agree. I disagree with him, however, on one point. I don't think I agree that Hungary is a boring country. In fact, as the short story writer, Sarki (ph), once remarked: "The Hungarians manufacture more history than they are able to consume locally."
[Laughter.]
MR. O'SULLIVAN: It has been a great privilege as well as a pleasure for us to host Prime Minister Orban here today. He is a democratic leader who, in the space of a few years, has managed to take his country successfully through economic reforms that required considerable sacrifices. He has managed to push forward the integration of his country into European and Atlantic structures. And he has been able to do all these things while attempting to rebuild the Hungarian national identity on a large-minded, generous, and inclusive basis. These are remarkable historical achievements, which he may or may not be allowed to continue when the elections occur.
I would just say two brief things. One is that we in the New Atlantic Initiative obviously are particularly grateful to host him because, as he said, the whole concept was hatched at some dinners in Budapest, in which he was participant back in 1995. And we then discussed the idea of a Congress of Budapest. That has not yet been held, but we hope one will be held like that in the relatively near future.
And, finally, as he may or may not know, Democratic politicians in this country are very concerned about winning the votes of a particular group, namely, the soccer Moms. But none of them have yet had the initiative to do what he does, which is to lead his own soccer team, which he takes around the country on weekends, in which he plays, against the local village teams, and which I think is probably one reason why he may very well be re-elected when the elections finally come.
[Laughter.]
MR. O'SULLIVAN: So on behalf of my colleagues in the New Atlantic Initiative and all of you, I'd like to thank Viktor Orban for coming here today and for treating us so generously to a portion of his analysis and wisdom.
Thank you.
[Applause.]
