January 2008
AEI's Election Watch series, which began in 1982, is the longest-running election program in Washington. This year's second session, which took place on January 24, 2008, summarized the results from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan, and South Carolina. Panelists also looked ahead to the Florida primary on January 29 and "Super Duper Tuesday" on February 5.
Karlyn Bowman
AEI
Since 1938, Gallup has tracked Americans' self-identified party affiliations and has found that partisan disparity right now is historically high. The self-identified partisanship numbers that Gallup releases are one of the best indicators of the general election vote, which means that the upcoming election looks much more favorable for the Democrats. This is a drastic change from the past two presidential election cycles, in which the electorate was in near-perfect partisan parity.
In 2007, Democrats held an eleven-point edge over Republicans in partisan identification. Contradicting the partisan identification numbers, though, is that in head-to-head match-ups, the general election could be extremely close. The Republican candidates, especially John McCain, perform competitively against both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the polls.
After the polling inaccuracies in New Hampshire, the polling industry has been under renewed scrutiny. It is facing two problems that are threatening accuracy in public opinion measures: people who use only cell phones and do not have land lines, which are traditionally used for polling, and dwindling response rates. Gallup has recently announced that it has begun including cell phone-only respondents in its polling methodology, but no organization has yet adequately addressed the problem of the general public's refusal to participate in polling.
Norman J. Ornstein
AEI
As Super Tuesday draws closer, it looks increasingly likely that neither party will have a clear leader until at least March or April. At the end of the day, the primaries are a battle for delegates, and that has prompted some unusual campaign tactics. For example, Republican candidates campaigning in delegate-rich California will have to decide whether it is more cost-effective to compete for the relatively few Republican voters in heavily Democratic districts or focus their efforts on Republican strongholds elsewhere.
On the Democratic side, the increasing hostility of the campaign is alarming many Democratic supporters. Perhaps the most unnerving aspect of this debate, however, is that it is playing out along extremely sensitive fault lines for the Democratic Party. There is a worry that Democrats might reach the national convention without a presumptive nominee. Such a scenario could create enough of a spectacle that the eventual nominee would be forced to select the other candidate as his or her running mate. In 2008, this could be especially dangerous since both Clinton and Obama are already groundbreaking candidates in their own rights. It is one thing for the party to push one envelope, but to push two in the same election would be very risky. Such a combination would also not be an ideal governing team.
Some have speculated that Clinton might court the Hispanic vote and neglect African Americans. This may prove to be a successful strategy in the primary elections, but a Democratic candidate will have a difficult time winning a general election without strong support from African Americans.
John Edwards will continue to fade from the campaign unless he is somehow able to win enough delegates to become a power broker in a disputed election. To earn that title, though, he will need to significantly improve his performance because the Democratic Party rules require at minimum 15 percent support to win a delegate in the proportional system.
Michael Barone
AEI
There is no clear leader on the horizon for either party. Even after Super Tuesday, each party could be left with just as muddled a nominating process as exists now. It is not likely, however, that the "brokering" part of a brokered convention would be left undecided until the national party conventions in late summer. With modern advances in communication unknown to delegates at the last multiballot convention, a deal would probably be worked out by party leaders earlier in the process. Who they would pick is much more difficult to say right now.
On the Republican side, Fred Thompson's recent departure from the race will probably do little to shake up the balance. Thompson's support had been minimal from the beginning, and he had succeeded in doing little but attacking Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, which could possibly have been the reason Huckabee lost to McCain there. McCain's resurgence might be a result of the renewed sense of the importance of security in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination.
John C. Fortier
AEI
The outlook for the congressional elections in 2008 remains largely unchanged since mid-December. The overall general election field strongly favors Democrats. Far more Republican members of the House have announced their retirements, and Missouri governor Matt Blunt recently announced that he will not seek reelection in November. This open-governor seat race could have a ripple effect in the House if current members decide to run in that election, creating even more open seats in the House in 2008.
In the Senate, Democrats will seriously challenge six or seven Republican seats, while the Republicans might only have one pickup opportunity in Mary Landrieu's (D-La.) seat. In Mississippi, Trent Lott's (R) unexpected retirement has created a bit of a political firestorm over how to replace him. It is unclear when the special election will be held because Republican Mississippi governor Haley Barbour and the Democratic state attorney general have fought each other all the way to the state's Supreme Court, which may rule as early as next week.
In the House, several moderate Republicans look especially vulnerable. Many Republican moderates lost their seats in 2006, and the upcoming election may continue that trend. As in the Senate, many more Republican seats are competitive because of incumbent retirements. There are also relatively few competitive Democratic seats. Republicans will focus much of their energy on trying to beat several first-term Democrats who sit in Republican-leaning districts.
AEI intern David Lassen prepared this summary.
