Although many experts warned of a repeat of the protracted stalemate that followed the 2000 presidential election, President George W. Bush won a clear majority of the popular vote on Election Day and accepted Senator John Kerry's concession the day after. The following day, November 4, AEI's Election Watch team--Karlyn H. Bowman, Norman J. Ornstein, and William Schneider--gathered for the last time in this election cycle. They analyzed the presidential race, the other contests of national significance, and the voting trends that led to Republican gains.

Describing the election as "a rare moment of partisan parity," Bowman noted that the electorate was evenly divided with 37 percent of voters identifying themselves as Republicans and the same number calling themselves Democrats. Both parties notably increased voter registration and turnout for their supporters. Ornstein added that only three states changed parties from the last election, with New Hampshire switching from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004 and New Mexico and Iowa switching from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004.

Behind the partisan balance, some important shifting has, however, occurred. Bowman found that while most Americans still consider themselves moderates, conservatives now outnumber liberals 33 to 21 percent. Schneider pointed out that President Bush made perhaps his largest inroads with Hispanics, taking 44 percent of the vote--a record for a Republican president. Roman Catholics also gave a slight edge to the president with 51 to 49 percent, despite the fact that Kerry is Catholic and Bush is not. The percentage of the electorate consisting of evangelical voters rose slightly from 15 percent in 2000 to 19 percent in 2004, although Schneider added that a change in indentifying evangelical voters might have accounted for part of this difference. Whereas former vice president Al Gore won a majority of women voters by 11 percent in 2000, Kerry's lead among women shrunk to 3 percent. President Bush also made slight gains among Jewish voters (6 percent) and African-Americans (2 percent), although both groups still voted overwhelmingly Democratic.

Ornstein called the expected youth turnout "the dog that didn't bark." While the number of those under thirty years of age casting votes did increase, their percentage of the electorate remained at 17 percent--of which 54 percent voted for Kerry.

While many in the media seem surprised that 22 percent of voters selected "moral values" as their top criterion for choosing a presidential candidate, Bowman recalled that Los Angeles Times exit polls had identified "moral values" as a top issue in 1996 and 2000 as well. The panelists cautioned the audience to keep in mind that in fact "moral values" includes more than just gay marriage; it encompasses a range of issues from crime and drugs to out-of-wedlock births, and a perception that American values are not as strong as in previous years.

The panelists considered also the composition of the incoming U.S. Senate and prospects for  the 2006 midterm elections. Democrats won Senate seats from Republicans in Illinois and Colorado, but Republicans increased their overall majority to fifty-five seats. Although the president's party traditionally loses seats in a second-term, off-year election, Ornstein argued that the next time around a Senate majority will likely be out of reach to Democrats, who will have eighteen of their seats contested as opposed to fifteen Republican-held seats. Ornstein argued that it would take an event "along the order of a Great Depression" to enable the Democrats to regain the dominance they enjoyed in Congress for the better part of six decades until 1994.

The panelists considered the traditional second-term troubles of presidential administrations, including a drop in the number of initiatives offered during the first term and the emergence of scandals. This time around, President Bush faces discontent among conservatives regarding increased spending and deficits, as well as divisive battles over any potential Supreme Court nominations. Americans returned President Bush to the White House based, in part, on his leadership in fighting the war on terror, and leadership skills will surely be required to preside over a closely divided electorate and the often rancorous partisanship in Washington.