In polls, if you ask a question, you almost always get an answer--though not necessarily to the question you wanted folks to answer. We see this illustrated once again in polls on Bill Clinton's standing as president in the wake of the allegations of an affair between him and White House intern Monica Lewinsky. All of the polls show higher proportions of people now saying they approve of "the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president" than did before the scandal broke. In fact, of course, while observers differ on what the scandal's impact has been (and is likely to be), no one thinks it has strengthened Clinton's standing with the American people.
We can speculate about what a majority of poll respondents mean when they say they approve of Clinton's handling of his office. This question has always picked up assessments not just of the president but of the nation's condition--the domestic economy and our place in world affairs. It's also true that Americans have repeatedly expressed the view that the press is too intrusive, and people responding to recent polls may well have used the approval question not to endorse the president's conduct but to criticize the media's excesses.
Fortunately, on the larger issue of whether "character matters" to the contemporary public, we don't need to speculate. Americans have repeatedly said it does matter--and they have lessened their support for Clinton's presidency because of reservations about his character. A new poll from U.S. News found a 24-percentage-point gap between the president's job-approval rating and his personal-approval rating, 66 percent and 42 percent respectively. His mediocre personal standing is captured by many different kinds of survey questions.
In April 1997, Gallup asked whether Clinton's ethical standards are higher or lower than those of other recent presidents. Here's what respondents said:
|
|
| |
Compared with |
|
Clinton's Standards |
Bush's |
Reagan's |
Carter's |
Nixon's |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Higher |
27% |
29% |
18% |
47% |
|
Lower |
57% |
54% |
61% |
30% |
|
About the same |
13% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
Thus, Clinton manages to beat a predecessor who was drummed out of office, but he loses to everyone else by this standard.
An early January question from Yankelovich Parthers asked whether Bill Clinton is one of our greatest presidents, a good but not great president, an average president, or a poor president. The pollsters also asked about Ronald Reagan. Far more (52 percent) said Reagan's presidency would be judged above average than said that of Clinton's (34 percent), even though the same poll recorded a whopping 59 percent approval rating for Clinton.
Gallup has asked a slightly different question about how presidents will go down in history. In September 1988, 52 percent said that Ronald Reagan would go down in history as an above-average or outstanding president. In January 1993, when the electorate had just voted George Bush out of office, 36 percent said the same about him. And, in January 1998, just 30 percent felt that way about Clinton.
In 1993, Gallup began asking whether a set of personal characteristics and qualities apply to President Clinton. Americans have been asked 20 times whether this president "shares your values." Only three times did respectable majorities say the phrase applied. Since January 1994--in 17 different surveys--pluralities or majorities have replied that the qualities "honest and trustworthy" don't apply to Bill Clinton. It's not surprising that substantial numbers of Americans think the president is lying about the Lewinsky affair.
Though he was not seen as a strong candidate in 1996, Bob Dole won the character contest over and over again. In a June 1996 poll by the bipartisan research team of Lake Research and the Tarrance Group, 70 percent described Dole as "moral"; only 41 percent felt the term applied to Clinton. In a lighter but revealing vein, the pollsters asked people to think about the prospects of going into business with Bob Dole or Bill Clinton. Fifty-five percent said they would trust Dole more to keep the books; only 24 percent said they would trust Clinton more. In July 1996, in response to an Opinion Dynamics/Fox News question, 43 percent said that Bill Clinton would be more likely than Bob Dole (12 percent) to lie under oath. An ABC poll during the campaign found that far more people would rather Bob Dole than Bill Clinton babysit for their children.
More recently, Opinion Dynamics/Fox News asked whether Bill Clinton or Al Gore would be more likely to cheat at cards. Forty-two percent in the September 1997 poll said Clinton would, 15 percent, the vice president. And last week, a Zogby poll asked whether respondents would like their children to look up to Clinton as a role model. Sixty-three percent said no.
Other evidence suggests that Bill Clinton will find it hard to secure a solid place in history. A January 1997 Newsweek poll found that a near majority, 49 percent, thought Clinton would be more likely to rank in the bottom 10 presidents 100 years from now; 37 percent said he would place in the top 10. Late last month, the Washington Post asked whether Clinton would be judged more for his accomplishments as president or for the controversies over his life and financial dealings. Sixty-one percent said that from what they had seen so far, he would be remembered more for the allegations about his personal life; only 33 percent said he would be remembered more for his presidential achievements. Democrats split evenly on the question.
The strong condition of the country notwithstanding, President Clinton's standing in the court of public opinion shows a fundamental weakness. Sky-high job performance numbers of the kind we have seen in recent weeks will not erase the deep doubts the public has about his character. Mounting evidence from the same polls suggests that these reservations will weigh heavily in the public's judgment of Bill Clinton's tenure in Washington.
Everett Ladd is executive director of the Roper Center at the University of Connecticut. Karlyn H. Bowman is a resident fellow at AEI.