AEI.Org: Scholar: Desmond Lachman

Role of Dollar in Asset Price Bubble

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There is no currency advantage to be gained by borrowing in U.S. dollars to fund the purchase of U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

What Jobs?

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Despite reassurances about the fiscal stimulus package last February, the U.S. economy has lost around 3.5 million jobs since the start of 2009.

Reserve Bank of Australia May Have Moved Too Soon

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Judging by the all too many economic flashpoints around the globe, the Australian Reserve Bank's bet on a V-shaped global recovery would seem to be anything but a sure thing.

How U.S. Debt Endgame Might Occur

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The U.S. government must act decisively to rectify its unsustainable fiscal position.

Some Countries Are Finding Strong Euro Difficult

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The last thing countries like Spain, Ireland, Greece, Italy, and Portugal need is a strong currency at a time when they are trying to redress their highly compromised public finances in the midst of severe economic recessions.

Policy on Hold at the Fed

Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

At its upcoming meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee will likely see little reason to change its monetary policy stance since economic developments have stood very much in line with the Fed's expectations.

A Rough Road Ahead for the Global Economy

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

2010 threatens to be another challenging year for the global economy.

The Dollar Does Not Deserve Such a Pessimistic Outlook

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Krishna Guha's article paints too pessimistic a long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar by not focusing on the basic fact that, for there to be a major further U.S. dollar depreciation, the dollar would need to depreciate substantially against the euro and the yen.

Economies Shoulder a Terrible Burden

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There are many reasons to fear that the US economy could stall again early next year and to be deeply concerned about the renewed deflation in Japan and the growing tensions within the eurozone, and what these factors might mean for a meaningful global economic recovery.

Responding to "What about Savings?"

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Desmond Lachman's response to NationalJournal.com's "Economy Experts" blog on the implications of low saving on economic growth.

Saving the World, without U.S. Consumers

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

As the G20 heads of state ponder policies to support the global economic recovery, they need to recognize that the U.S. consumer is unlikely to be the principle driver of the economy anymore.

Responding to "Is the Stimulus Working?"

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Resident fellow Desmond Lachman argues that the stimulus is not helping the economy recover.

Threading the Needle at the Fed

Sat, 19 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The recession is ending, but big risks remain.

Responding to "Why It Is Still Too Early to Start Withdrawing Stimulus"

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

It would not seem premature for policymakers to consider how they should respond should the U.S. economy stall again early next year.

Notes on the Great Recession

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

With so many risks still overhanging the fragile U.S. economy, one hopes U.S. policymakers will not allow themselves to be carried away by the equity market's present state of euphoria.

The Wrong Man for the Job

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

President Obama is turning a blind eye to Ben Bernanke's all too many errors of judgment.

The Recovery and the Deficit

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The loss of control over U.S. public finances poses a real long-run risk of high interest rates and high inflation that in turn could reduce the U.S. economy's longer run growth potential.

Public Spending's Day of Reckoning

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

History is littered with examples of major economic and financial crises in countries that have engaged in profligate public spending. These sad experiences should be raising red flags in the U.S.

The Fed and Its Excess Reserves

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There are several good reasons to believe that inflation is not an immediate risk to the U.S. economy and that the Federal Reserve would be ill-advised to exit prematurely from its easing policy.

Interest Rate Policy on Hold

Sat, 08 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting will not bring meaningful changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

He's Making Things Worse

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 00:00:00 +0100

President Obama is just compounding a mess instead of really putting the economy on the right track.

Animal Spirits Won't Help US and UK out of this Recession

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

In framing their policy response to the present economic recession, U.S. and U.K. policymakers would do well to take that research seriously rather than to engage in wishful thinking that somehow animal spirits will quickly restore the two economies to their potential growth paths.

Don't Give Ben Another Term

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

If Bernanke were indeed to be reappointed as Fed chairman, it would mean that, in the depths of by far the worst U.S. economic recession in the post war period, one would be reappointing to the job the very person whose fingerprints are all over that recession.

An Inopportune Time for Reckless Experimentation

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

In today's world of widespread loan securitisation, debt-for-equity conversions are no simple matter.

Obama's Economic Box

Wed, 15 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Despite the administration's aggressive and costly economic policy initiatives, there is trouble all around.

A Return to Saving?

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A rise in U.S. household savings is a healthy long-run development in that it provides a basis for reducing the large U.S. external imbalance and for increasing domestic investment.

Benchmarking the Stimulus

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

One has to be struck by the degree to which the Obama Administration has underestimated the depth of the current economic recession in setting economic policy at the start of its term.

Does Bernanke Really Deserve a Second Term?

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Federal Reserve chairman's tenure has been checkered at best. There must be other candidates who could be expected to do a better job.

Despite the Doubters, It's Still Top Dollar

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There's much chatter that the Chinese renminbi will eventually replace the U.S. dollar as the world's preeminent international reserve currency, but this supposed inevitability is highly questionable.

Bernanke's Quantitative Easing Challenge

Sat, 20 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The focus of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting will be on how recent financial market developments, mainly in reaction to a perceived overly expansionary longer-run budget policy, are putting the incipient recovery at risk.

Rates Could Scuttle Recovery

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Before allowing complacency to set in, the Obama administration would do well to heed the clear warnings now emanating out of the U.S. fixed income and dollar markets.

Defense of Latvia's Currency Is Doomed

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Calling on Europe to help save the Latvian currency peg is all too reminiscent of similar calls in 2000 to save the Argentine Convertibility Plan.

Bernanke in a Box

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The market is showing its growing unease about the Obama budget.

What Is Fiscally--and Politically--"Sustainable"?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Obama budget proposal is now raising major issues of fiscal sustainability for the United States.

Responding to "Rising Government Bond Rates Prove Policy Works"

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A credible long-run fiscal plan should not in any way dilute the short-run fiscal stimulus that the U.S. economy so desperately needs at this time.

Unemployment in Europe and the U.S.

Tue, 26 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The European recession is significantly deeper and is likely to last significantly longer than that in the United States.

The World Economy's Europe Problem

Thu, 07 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

As "green shoots" of recovery sprout in the United States, potential crises in a number of European economies pose the main risk to any early global economic recovery.

Comment on a Martin Wolf Column

Thu, 07 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A key lesson that should be drawn from the bursting of the U.S. housing market bubble is that the Federal Reserve can ill afford to be derelict in the exercise of its regulatory responsibilities.

A Dollar Collapse Will Hurt China

Thu, 07 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

For the dollar to collapse, it would need to do so against the euro and the Japanese yen, both of which seem substantially weaker than the dollar itself.

Quantitative Easing

Fri, 01 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Worsening economic conditions will force central banks to resort to more aggressive quantitative easing until the economy recovers.

Quantitative Easing

Fri, 01 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Worsening economic conditions will force central banks to resort to more aggressive quantitative easing until the economy recovers.

Bad Counsel

Fri, 01 May 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The European Union wants to cut deficits. What is it thinking?

On Pause at the Fed

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed will take a breather this week.

If Barack Obama Could Achieve Only One Financial Reform, What Should It Be?

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 00:00:00 +0100

If President Obama asked for the most urgent financial reform, global or domestic, needed to rebuild the credibility of the financial system, what would be the answer?

How Much Will China Grow?

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The consumption pattern of Chinese households does not correspond to the output that China's export industries produce.

The Clock Ticks for Europe

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Time is running out for the European economy.

Obama Policies Have U.S. on the Road to Deflation

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Obama administration seems to be doing too little too late in resolving the country's banking crisis.

Is the Bottom Near?

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0100

One has to be struck at the gaping gulf between the Obama administration's diagnosis of what ails the economy and its policy prescription to promote a recovery.

Welcome to America, the World's Scariest Emerging Market

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The United States is coming to resemble Argentina, Russia, and other emerging markets, both in what led to this crisis and in how we are trying to fix it.

Q&A: How to Think about the U.S. Dollar

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0100

It has become fashionable to predict the imminent collapse of the dollar. What might really happen?

Fed Facing the Free Fall

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0100

As the Federal Reserve meets this week, it will be mindful of reams of worrisome data.

The Global Economy Unravels

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The world's policymakers are finally waking up to how synchronized and how severe the global economic crisis is turning out to be.

Responding to Martin Wolf

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A coordinated international response should embrace concrete monetary policy, fiscal policy, and exchange rate policy actions.

Push Bernanke on Deflation

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Throughout his three-year tenure, Ben Bernanke has been painfully slow to do the right thing.

One-Size Euro Could Yet Burst at Seams

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

A host of individual euro member countries have marked economic weaknesses that are being severely tested by a global economic slump.

Next Steps on the Economy

Mon, 09 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

More important than monetary policy are bold measures that would mend the broken U.S. financial system.

The Next Economic Shoes to Drop

Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

We can expect trouble in the commercial property market and rising corporate defaults. It's time for serious action.

Memo to Obama and Geithner: This Is No Time for a Trade War

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There can be little doubt that China has been manipulating its currency for competitive advantage.

Minding the Deflation Spiral

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed meets this week amid bad news on labor markets, consumer spending, and industrial production.

Should Spending on Infrastructure Be U.S. Priority?

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Desmond Lachman responds to Joseph Stiglitz's January 16 article in the Financial Times.

Do We Need an Inflation Target?

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

By resorting to the Federal Reserve's printing press, Ben Bernanke could easily compromise the country's future growth prospects.

Don't Repeat Japan's Mistakes

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

On financial market reform, Obama should adopt the successful Swedish model rather than the failed Japanese one.

Prolonged Recession Could Shake Euro to Its Core

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There are serious economic problems in Europe that pose a major threat to the euro.

Self-Congratulation Must Not Blind Policymakers to Eurozone Weaknesses

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

The global recession now poses existential challenges for the euro.

Neglected Stimulus Ideas

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Economists assess President-elect Barack Obama's fiscal stimulus proposals.

Obama Could Consider a Rise in Petrol and Carbon Taxes

Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Raising gas and carbon taxes would help president-elect Obama meet many of the objectives he advocated during the election.

Helicopter Ben Confronts the Challenge of a Lifetime

Thu, 18 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0100

A major impediment to any economic recovery right now is not that official interest rates are too low but rather that the money multiplier has collapsed.

What Will the Fed Do Now?

Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0100

In all likelihood, the Federal Open Market Committee will soon move toward quantitative monetary policy easing.

Spain's Malaise Could Prove Friedman Right about the Euro

Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0100

It seems that euro membership deprived Spain of an independent monetary policy that might have been used to deflate the Spanish housing market bubble before it became unmanageable.

Tim Geithner's Challenge

Wed, 10 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Now is the time for a bold new economic strategy. Let's hope that Team Obama delivers one.

We Can't Wait for a New Treasury Secretary

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Hank Paulson's tenure as Treasury secretary has been highly unfortunate for both the U.S. and global economies.

The G-20 Summit Was a Failure

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Global financial markets want an immediate, bold, and coordinated policy response. G-20 members did not provide it.

Threat of European Currency Weakness

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Wolfgang Münchau seems to be wide of the mark in asserting that the present global financial crisis will lead to the early expansion of the eurozone.

The Honeymoon's Over before It Begins

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The current financial crisis will force Obama to put his long-term agenda on the back burner.

The Threats to the Eurozone's Expansion

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:00:00 +0100

It is likely that today's global financial market crisis will mark the end of any serious challenge by the euro to the U.S. dollar as an alternate international reserve currency.

Deflation Bound

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100

By worrying about inflation, even after commodity bubbles have burst, central bankers are risking economy-killing deflation.

Yes, It's a Wreck, but We Can Fix It

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Why have the government's efforts to right the economy not yet succeeded?

A New Era for Global Banking

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100

When the dust settles on today's crisis, the world will find itself with a radically changed financial system.

Coordinated Action Needed for Hedge Funds Too

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Even if a quick solution were to be found for the banks' capital inadequacy problem, it is unlikely that the hedge funds' deleveraging process would be arrested.

A Response to Martin Wolf

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Major government intervention is needed to stabilize housing prices and arrest the alarming rate of foreclosure that threatens to add to bank loan losses.

A Response to Lawrence Summers

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The damage to the public financesresulting fromthe financial crisis will require the scaling back of aspirations in other areas of fiscal policy.

The $700 Billion Man

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

What should we make of the proposed government bank bailout?

Fed Should Not Shut Door on Accommodative Policy

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The idea that the Federal Reserve has been overly accommodative is a dangerous myth.

Treasury Secretary Paulson's between a Rock and a Hard Place

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Henry Paulsonnow has the unenviable task of picking up the pieces from the bursting of the largest housing and credit market bubbles in memory.

Is Europe Headed for a Recession?

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Recent economic data paint a gloomy picture for Europe.

Is U.S. Monetary Policy Really Too Loose?

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed should not hike interest rates until it has clear evidence of stabilization in the housing and credit markets.

An Economic Memorandum for the Next U.S. President

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 00:00:00 +0100

How should the next president handle economic issues?

Focus on Checking Downward Spiral in U.S. Homes Market

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Congress should be grappling with the pressing issue of how to put a brake on the present downward spiral of the housing market.

Lessons from the Credit Crunch

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Central bankers should have figured out that the credit crunch is more than just a liquidity dilemma.

Time for a Second Stimulus Package?

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Before considering a second stimulus package, Congress should consider why the first package failed to jumpstart the economy.

No Need for Tighter U.S. Money to Slay the Inflationary Dragon

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:00:00 +0100

It is difficult to see how theUnited Statescan avoid a prolonged recession once the stimulatory effect of the present tax rebate program abates later in the year.

Gulf Nations Should Seek to Move to Floating Exchange Rate

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Lachman pushes for a floating exchange rate in theGulf countries.

Epoch-Making Challenges

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:00:00 +0100

At times of economic crisis, a number of U.S. presidential elections have proved to be watershed economic events.

Fed Is Restricted by Its Congressional Mandate

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Amore flexible exhange rate is part of the solution to the Asian and Middle Eastern inflation policy.

America's Economic Outlook: A Symposium

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Will the U.S. economy improve or worsen between now and Election Day in November?

Is the US Recession Really Over?

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The U.S. equity market still seems to believe that, whatever recession we might have had at the start of this year, a recovery is on the way.

Economy Would Be McCain's Big Challenge

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 00:00:00 +0100

If elected, McCain will need to devise a concrete plan that can heal the U.S. economy.

Will Oil Really Hit $200 a Barrel?

Fri, 30 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Oil prices cannot keep rising forever, despite what many of today's market participants seem to think.

Can the Euro Survive in Its Present Form?

Wed, 28 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

As the Euro celebrates its tenth birthday, its next decade remains uncertain.

Further Oil Price Rises Will Be Like Tax Hike

Mon, 26 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

If further significant increases in oil prices would push the U.S. economy into a meaningful and protracted recession, can they be sustained?

A Response to "The Market Sets High Oil Prices to Tell Us What to Do"

Wed, 14 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Past experience with oil price increases would suggest that, if sustained, such a run-up in oil prices could shave a full percentage point off U.S. GDP growth in the near term.

Housing the Key--and It's in Big Strife

Tue, 13 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Reports of the end of the U.S. recession are premature.

No Cause to Cheer Just Yet for Financial Recovery

Tue, 13 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Simultaneous shocks to the economy may push theUnited Statesinto a prolonged recession that will further intensify the credit crisis once the temporary tax rebate plan fades.

Credit Crisis Does Affect Eurozone Area as a Whole

Tue, 06 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Europe is going through a macroeconomic crisis.

Sweden's Missed Opportunity

Thu, 01 May 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Despite some positive labor market reforms,Sweden's bloated welfare system and crushing tax burden remain entrenched.

The Next Great Global Currency

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Ten years from now, what will be the next great global currency?

Washington's Dangerous Policy Delusion

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Stabilizing the housing market appears to be a necessary condition for breaking the present cycle between a weakening economy and a deteriorating financial system.

A Welcome New Broom at the IMF

Mon, 07 Apr 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The new director of the International Monetary Fund has hit the ground running with bold reform recommendations.

The Road to Bank Bailout

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 01:00:00 +0100

In order to protect U.S. taxpayers, the Federal Reserve should address financial problems transparently.

Grading Bernanke: A Symposium

Thu, 27 Mar 2008 01:00:00 +0100

Amid widespread financial turmoil and talk of recession, fivescholars atAEI graded and assessed the Federal Reserve’s recent policy decisions.

A Very Different U.S. Recession

Wed, 26 Mar 2008 01:00:00 +0100

The current economic debate about a possible recession has evolved into a discussion on how long is it going to be and how severe.

Brazil's Moment in the Sun

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 01:00:00 +0100

At this time of global financial turmoil, one has to marvel at how Brazil's standing has risen in world financial markets.

The Reality of Sovereign Wealth Funds

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 01:00:00 +0100

The case for maintaining open international financial markets must be weighed against legitimate political concerns.

The Pain in Spain

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The incoming Spanish prime minister will have to deal with theincreasing problems in the Spanish housing market.

Let's Not Go Back to the Failed Capital Controls of the Past

Mon, 03 Mar 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Financial problems should not be solved by resorting to failed capital market controls, but rather by reinvigorating prudential regulatory financial market oversight and managing the exchange rate.

Learning from the Greenspan Legacy

Mon, 18 Feb 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Greenspan will have to be called to account for regulatory failings and his interest rate policy.

Bearing Down

Tue, 12 Feb 2008 00:00:00 +0100

It is doubtful that either the Bush administration or the Fed can prevent a nasty recession from occuring.

China Needs to Boost Its Domestic Consumption

Fri, 01 Feb 2008 00:00:00 +0100

For the sake ofthe global economy's health, China must rebalance its economy away from exports and towards domestic demand.

Ben Bernanke Is Also to Blame

Tue, 29 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The latest interest rate cut is too late to prevent a recession in the first half of 2008, but it does give hope that the Federal Reserve will not repeat the mistakes of the Great Depression.

The Myth of "Decoupling"

Thu, 24 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Despite what you may have heard, global economic linkages remain strong.

Russian Growth Is Stalked by Inflation Demons

Sun, 06 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The currently strong Russian economy may soon be slowed down.

Student of the Depression

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed must act to loosen monetary policy in the face of the deflating housing and credit bubbles.

Sovereign Wealth Fund Tease

Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Assessing the wisdom of setting up sovereign wealth funds in Latin America depends on a judgment about the relative importance of the existing funds in the global economy.

China's Clay Feet

Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Will Chinabe able to sustain its past very rapid rare of economic growth in the event that its exports are increasingly shut out of Western markets?

Fed Well Advised to be More Aggressive

Mon, 24 Dec 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The U.S. economy is at present being hit by three simultaneous shocks that threaten a nasty recession that will more than likely unleash strong deflationary forces.

The Dangers of Letting Deflation Take a Hold

Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Central banks would be ill advised to look solely in the rearview mirror when assessing the inflationary outlook.

The U.S. Housing Market Blues

Tue, 04 Dec 2007 00:00:00 +0100

As estimates of subprime mortgage related losses in the financial system mount, there is every indication that the housing market woes will spread to the rest of the U.S. economy.

In Search of a Dollar Policy

Wed, 21 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100

There is real concern that the declineinthe dollar could quickly become a freefall.

The Economic Consequences of Mr. Greenspan

Mon, 19 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100

It is too soon to drawdefinitive conclusions on the extent of the economic damage wrought by the ongoing U.S. housing market bust.

A Deeper Housing Slump Will Swamp U.S. Hopes of Deficit and Dollar Recovery

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100

It is a mistake to think that the housing market slumpwill permanently improve the U.S. current account deficit.

A Kinder and Gentler IMF

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Latin America should expect a kinder and a gentlerInternational Monetary Fundunder DominiqueStrauss-Kahn's leadership.

The Wrong Path to Sub-Prime Reform

Thu, 08 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Requiring mortgage originators to hold at least part of the mortgages they originate would establish powerful incentives for all originators to exercise better due diligence in making loans.

The Global Economic Decoupling Myth

Thu, 01 Nov 2007 01:00:00 +0100

The U.S. economy continues to play asubstantial role in the global economy.

Regulatory Overreaction Could Damage the U.S. Mortgage Market

Wed, 31 Oct 2007 01:00:00 +0100

Barney Frank's home-lending reform bill could seriously impede the proper function of the U.S. mortgage market.

Wall Street's Housing Market Denial

Wed, 17 Oct 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Despite Wall Street's optimism, the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.

Mr. Trichet Sleeps as the Dollar Sinks

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The European Central Bank acts as if it is oblivious to the U.S. dollar's free fall.

Asleep at the Wheel at the IMF

Tue, 02 Oct 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The International Monetary Fund is cheerleading for the world economy, not leading on currency policy.

Is Mr. Bernanke Correctly Gauging the Crisis?

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Timing is everything when central banks respond to financial crises.

Two Questions for Mr. Bernanke

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Will thecredit crunchlast longerthan previouscrunches?Will it be being accompanied by otherfactors that might also weigh heavily on the U.S. economy?

Is Mr. Bernanke Behind the Curve?

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Will Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Bernanke respond to the present financial market crisis with sufficient force and timeliness?

Bubble Troubles Hint at Recession

Thu, 06 Sep 2007 00:00:00 +0100

How might the present debt crisis differ from and be very much more serious than its predecessors?

What Congress Should--and Shouldn't--Do about the Housing Crisis

Wed, 29 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The home market issues facing Congress are not easy and not amenable to quick fixes.

Fine Line between Quick Fix and Calamity

Wed, 29 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

TheFederal Reserve will have to act very swiftly to avert what could become a major recession.

Central Banks Risk Taking US on a Deflationary Path

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The U.S. economy heads down the path toward deflation.

Can We Still Be So Sure There Will Be No Government Home Loans Bail-Out?

Fri, 10 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

On the subprime mortgage bust.

The U.S. Housing Bust Is a Big Deal

Fri, 10 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Most Wall Street analysts still fail to recognize the gravity of the U.S. housing market situation.

A Slow-Moving Chinese Train Wreck

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

China's currency is still egregiously undervalued, and neither the IMF nor the U.S. treasury secretary seems to want to do anything about it.

Subprime Blues Sound Familiar

Thu, 02 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The origins of the current crisis in the U.S. subprimemortgage market date back to the early 1980s.

Analyze This: U.S. Housing Crisis Is Not Over

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0100

What can Wall Street analysts tell us about the U.S. housing market and the subprime mortgage lending crisis?

The New IMF Managing Director's Challenges

Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Dominique Strauss-Kahn will face two significant challenges when he becomes managing director of the IMF in October.

The World Has Changed, Why Won't the Fund and the Bank?

Fri, 13 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Nowis the ideal time to revaluate the relevance and purposes of both the IMF and World Bank.

The Fed's Housing Bet

Mon, 02 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed seems blind to the severity of the housing slump--a potentially very costly error.

What Zoellick Should Do

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Robert Zoellickcan succeed at the World Bank if he first listens to his new colleagues. Butwhether the Bank willundergo the changesit so badly needs is uncertain.

The Dangerous Allure of Currency Unions

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Let us hope that Asian and Latin American countries learn from the perils of the euro and avoid forming currency unions.

Cry for Argentina

Thu, 31 May 2007 00:00:00 +0100

In Argentina, anappreciating currency can help to reduce inflation without compromising a country's long-term growth prospects.

The World Bank Needs Radical Reform

Wed, 23 May 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The World Bank needs a new president who is not only politically appealing--it needs someone to fundamentally change the way the Bank does business.

The Future of the World Bank

Mon, 21 May 2007 00:00:00 +0100

What is the future of the World Bank? How will Latin America be affected?

Is the IMF Obsolete?

Fri, 18 May 2007 00:00:00 +0100

AEI scholars debate the relevance of the International Monetary Fund.

The Increasing Irrelevance of the World Bank

Mon, 14 May 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Is the World Bank relevant in today's global economy?

The Euro's Day of Reckoning

Mon, 30 Apr 2007 00:00:00 +0100

As the weakening housing market drags down the dollar, the euro will have to bear most of the burden.

The IMF Fiddles while the Dollar Burns

Fri, 27 Apr 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The International Monetary Funds persists in the view that the United States will have the softest of soft economiclandings, despite currency issues.

The IMF as Global Economic Cheerleader

Thu, 26 Apr 2007 00:00:00 +0100

TheInternational Monetary Fundinsists that the U.S. housing market downturn will not affect the world economy.

Housing Bubble Bursts into American Elections

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:00:00 +0100

In the run-up to the 2008 election, it is likely that home prices willfall at an accelerating pace.

Soft Pedaling the Housing Market Blues

Mon, 26 Mar 2007 01:00:00 +0100

It would be a grave mistake for Ben Bernanke to allow his wishful thinking to influence his interest rate decisions in the months ahead.

Housing Market Blues

Fri, 23 Mar 2007 01:00:00 +0100

The Federal Reserve should stand ready to soften the fallout from the coming housing bust.

The Consequences of Subprime Turmoil

Tue, 20 Mar 2007 01:00:00 +0100

Lower home prices could strain an over-leveraged financial system and induce U.S. households to reduce consumption significantly in response to declining wealth levels.

The Fed Is Not Asking the Right Questions

Fri, 09 Mar 2007 00:00:00 +0100

The abrupt turn in the subprime housing market occurred in a reasonably strong economy. The Fed should ask what would happen to the housing market were the economy to weaken.

The Real Reforms Needed to Secure the Euro's Future

Wed, 28 Feb 2007 00:00:00 +0100

As the euro rides high, an unhealthy sense of complacency pervades European capitals about the currency's long-run viability.

A Tale of Three Currencies

Mon, 26 Feb 2007 00:00:00 +0100

Global payment imbalances between the United States and the Asian economies are now at their widest level in the past sixty years.

Existential Crisis at the IMF

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 00:00:00 +0100

As tensions mount, theInternational Monetary Fundis surprisingly passive in defusing the risks of protectionism and disorderly financial markets.

Aspiring Euro Club Members May Still Have Special Needs

Thu, 11 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0100

If those countries aspiring to euro membership need greater policy flexibility prior to euro membership, surely they will also need greater policy flexibility after euro adoption.

No Wonder Bernanke Had to Make His Point

Tue, 19 Dec 2006 00:00:00 +0100

China continues to manipulatethe yuanto its own advantage.

International Financial Physician, Heal Thyself

Tue, 05 Dec 2006 00:00:00 +0100

As emerging market economies find themselves booming with global liquidity, it is the bloated International Monetary Fund whose finances are in deep trouble andin need of a helping hand.

China Impervious To US Trade Tactics

Tue, 05 Dec 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Among the more disappointing aspects of US international economic policy over the past few years is how little progress has been made in putting Sino-US trade relations on a sounder footing.

China and the Yuan

Mon, 04 Dec 2006 00:00:00 +0100

If China is to avoid a major protectionist backlash in both Europe and the United States, it will need to wean its economy from its overdependence on exports.

Global Risk Profile Is Truly Perilous

Tue, 28 Nov 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The global economy has not been confronted with so many identifiable risks of such an extraordinarily large magnitude as it is today.

What Is the Fed Doing on Housing?

Thu, 02 Nov 2006 00:00:00 +0100

With the very real prospect of a cooling U.S. economy in train, it is difficult to understand why the Fed is now still fretting about inflationary pressures.

Asia’s Economic Size Needs Fairer Representation

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

TheIMF is now desperately seeking to restore its legitimacy with a radically recharged Asia by persuading on the merits of co-operating to address the large global payment imbalances.

Can Italy Live with More Stern Economic Medicine?

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Would a strong Italian government would be able to endure the economic and social pain that would be entailed in a far-reaching program of fiscal retrenchment and labour market reform?

Why Beijing Resists Currency Flexibility

Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

China's stubborn resistance to currency appreciation might have more to do with its political elite's desire not to rock the boat and to remain in power.

The Inflation Genie Is Out of the Bottle

Mon, 16 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Having relied too heavily on a strong rand over the past few years to contain inflation, the Reserve Bank is now going to have to raise interest rates aggressively to counter the inflationary effects of a weaker currency.

Defying Gravity in the Emerging Markets

Fri, 13 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The list of recent disturbing political news coming out of the emerging markets is impressive.

Is China Growing at the United States' Expense?

Mon, 09 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Discussants Stephen Roach and Desmond Lachman debate the seriousness of the challenge posed by China and appropriate steps to respond to its rise.

Divergence in Competitiveness Already Exists in EU

Fri, 06 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Diverging trends in competitiveness within the eurozone threaten its stability.

The Risks for South Africa if Meltdown Continues

Thu, 28 Sep 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Over the past few weeks, there has been a dramatic sell-off in internationally traded commodities as the world’s major central banks continued to drain liquidity.

Announcements of the IMF's Demise May Prove Premature

Wed, 20 Sep 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The timing of Martin Wolf's assertion that the IMF is in financial crisis because of its own success is curious.

A Tolstoy Economy

Wed, 06 Sep 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Despite the apparent complacency of today's financial markets there is the very real risk that the global economy is in for a hard-landing.

The IMF's Asian Challenge

Tue, 22 Aug 2006 00:00:00 +0100

When the world's finance ministers meet in Singapore for the IMF meetings next month, one must hope that they do so both in the spirit of cooperation and with a sense of urgency.

Lulled into False Sense of Security

Thu, 17 Aug 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The net upshot is that despite the apparent complacency of financial markets there is the very real risk that the global economy is in for a hard landing.

Sorry Times at Club Med

Tue, 15 Aug 2006 00:00:00 +0100

What is the main reason for the convergence of less developed economies toward developed economies?

The Disturbing Deterioration of Developed Economies

Wed, 02 Aug 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Too many of the developed economies have allowed their fundamentals to deteriorate in a disturbing manner.

Fed's Mistake Sowed Seeds of US House Price Bubble

Tue, 01 Aug 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The Fed has a serious challenge in trying to unwind what it has done to the US housing market.

Risky Business

Fri, 28 Jul 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Despite last month's sell-off in emerging market asset prices, these markets are still pricing the emerging markets as if they were free of the risks that have traditionally characterized them.

Oil Price Increases Could Presage Stagflation in US

Wed, 19 Jul 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Do notunderestimate the potential for further oil price increases to produce stagflation that could pose a real challenge for the Federal Reserve.

Overvalued Rand Comes Home to Roost

Wed, 28 Jun 2006 00:00:00 +0100

The collapse of the rand in South Africa should not have taken policy makers by surprise.

China Plays a Dangerous Currency Game

Tue, 06 Jun 2006 00:00:00 +0100

China seems reluctant tomove decisively on the currency issue.

Little Cause for Latin American Optimism

Mon, 29 May 2006 00:00:00 +0100

What will happen to the Latin American economies when global growth slows, global liquidity is drained, and international commodity prices decline?

It Is Foolish to Ignore Energy Risks

Mon, 15 May 2006 00:00:00 +0100

If there are no serious bears left out there, can global markets really continue their relentless upward march?

Cry for Italy

Wed, 03 May 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Over the next year Italy will have no effective government to address the country's chronic economic problems.

US Must Stress Need for Continued Renminbi Revaluation

Tue, 11 Apr 2006 00:00:00 +0100

President George W. Bush would do well to welcome the 9 per cent effective appreciation of the Chinese currency over the past year.

A Tale of Two Countries

Wed, 05 Apr 2006 00:00:00 +0100

For while New Zealand and Spain might literally be at opposite ends of the earth, the same two stylized facts characterize their economies.

Euro Disaster a Salutary Lesson in What Not to Do

Tue, 28 Mar 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Will a single currency in Asia produce the same results as it did in Europe?

Europe's Economic Fantasy

Fri, 24 Mar 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Does it make sense to extend the euro to the former transition countries, when the existing members are having so much trouble getting it to work?

Captain Rato and the Titanic

Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:00:00 +0100

How will the IMF's managing director handle global imbalances?

Italy Follows Argentina Down the Same Road to Ruin

Fri, 17 Mar 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Italy'spresent economic and financial predicament is conceptually remarkably similar to that of Argentina in the late 1990s.

Should We Despair the Lurch Left?

Tue, 21 Feb 2006 00:00:00 +0100

An alternation of power through the ballot box from right-of-center to left-of-center governments should be viewed as a healthy manifestation of the democratic process at work.

Sustainability of China's Growth Should Be Questioned

Fri, 17 Feb 2006 00:00:00 +0100

How reasonable is it to expect that international markets will indefinetly stay open to an ever-increasing volume of Chinese exports?

Hunt for Yield Blinds US to Risk

Wed, 15 Feb 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Despite today’s many identifiable and serious risks to the global economic recovery, most markets are tradingas if the skies were blue.

A Rigid Dollar Peg Is No Panacea

Thu, 19 Jan 2006 00:00:00 +0100

This Letter to the Editor contests the opinion that emerging-market economies should adopt internationally accepted currencies, such as the US dollar or the euro.

Do We Need the IMF?

Wed, 18 Jan 2006 00:00:00 +0100

Does the IMF still have a real role to play in the world's middle-income countries?

Don't Overestimate the Dragon's Power

Wed, 04 Jan 2006 00:00:00 +0100

For China to pose along-term economic threat,it wouldneed to match the U.S.'s sustained productivity performance, which it won't do unless itembraces free-market economics.

No More of the Same Mistakes

Thu, 08 Dec 2005 00:00:00 +0100

It would be a crying shame if Latin America turned up this opportunity to adopt a more outward looking growth strategy, which has served so many other emerging economies so well.

Inflation Tango

Tue, 29 Nov 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The fact that Argentine policymakers perversely do not draw the correct lessons from their many policy mistakes dooms them to repeat those mistakes.

Contemplating a More Radical Approach to Currency Reform

Mon, 21 Nov 2005 00:00:00 +0100

China's fixed exchange rate is complicating its domestic monetary policy management.

Exchange Rates Must Be on Mr. Bush's China Agenda

Thu, 20 Oct 2005 00:00:00 +0100

At the start of the year, Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Board Chairman who is not known for being an alarmist, issued an ominous warning.

Even Turkeys Fly When the Winds Are Strong

Wed, 21 Sep 2005 00:00:00 +0100

If ever the winds have been strong for Latin America, it has to have been over the past two years.

Katrina Has Had an Impact on Natural Gas and Electricity Production as well as Crude Oil ...

Fri, 09 Sep 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The present energy shock is taking place at a time when U.S. monetary policy accommodation is being withdrawn.

Oil's Cloud over Global Economy

Tue, 23 Aug 2005 00:00:00 +0100

A dangerous myth is stalking international economic policy-making circles. It is the notion that rising oil prices will not be a drag on global economic growth.

What ECB Has to Do to Lift Sluggish Eurozone

Wed, 10 Aug 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The European fiscal stability pact ought to be redefined in terms of cyclically adjusted rather than actual budget targets.

Italy in Argentina's Shadow

Mon, 01 Aug 2005 00:00:00 +0100

If Italy postpones painful market reforms,it will probably see aprolonged period of economic stagnation and ever-widening budget deficits.

Fiscal Imbalances Point to Threat of Indian Debt Crisis

Wed, 20 Jul 2005 00:00:00 +0100

There is a pressing need for a revitalization of India's economic reform program if India is to emulate China's impressive economic growth performance.

Threat from China May Be Empty

Mon, 04 Jul 2005 00:00:00 +0100

China’s very large macroeconomic imbalances should be alerting us to the risk of a major reversal in China’s economic growth performance within the next couple of years.

China's Obligations in the Global Financial System

Tue, 28 Jun 2005 00:00:00 +0100

China is manipulating its currency to maintain an undervalued exchange rate.

The Bell Tolls for Europe

Tue, 21 Jun 2005 00:00:00 +0100

With therecent"no" votesover theEU constitution, one questions whether Europe is capable of reforms that will allow itssingle currency towork.

Fed Head's Colourful Quandary

Thu, 16 Jun 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Only time will tell whether it is the bond market or whether it isAlan Greenspan who has the right call on the U.S. economic-growth outlook.

Protectionist Storm Clouds Gathering

Fri, 03 Jun 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The Chinese governmenthas to realize that it mustplay its part in redressing theunprecedented large global payment imbalances; if not, it willunleash strong protectionist pressures abroad.

A Central Down Under

Thu, 02 Jun 2005 00:00:00 +0100

A more balanced view might have asked what happens to Australia when commodity prices ebb and when China's investment bubble bursts?

Case for Remninbi Revaluation Grows

Thu, 19 May 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Increased flexibility in China’s currency would provide China with a greater degree of monetary policy independence from the United States than its dollar peg affords it today.

Politicians Deaf to Greenspan's Fiscal Warnings

Mon, 09 May 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Alan Greenspan's exhortations to Congress to mend its profligate fiscal ways are falling on deaf ears, prompting Paul Volcker to publicly muse about a global economy skating on thin ice.

Australian Imbalance Is Cause for Concern

Mon, 09 May 2005 00:00:00 +0100

It is troubling that a resource-rich, commodity-based economy such as Australia's is managing to run an outsized external current account deficit at a time of record-high commodity prices.

World Bank-rupt

Mon, 02 May 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Is not the Bank in need of fundamental restructuring? Might not somebody of Paul Wolfowitz's undisputed ability and vision be the right person to effect such basic change?

Measured U.S. Rate Rises Will Not Stem Flow of Funds into China

Tue, 26 Apr 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Chinese policymakers must realize that they cannot expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to take China's circumstances into account when setting monetary policy for the United States.

Asian Ants and the South African Grasshopper

Wed, 13 Apr 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Steadily rising international oil prices and a sinking dollar should remind the grasshopper thattime is quickly running out andconditions might notremainfavorable much longer.

Trade Away Donaldson

Tue, 05 Apr 2005 00:00:00 +0100

William Donaldson's trade-through proposal would be almost certain to stifle the type of market innovation and progress so necessary to keep American markets fair, efficient, and competitive.

Oil Complacency Calls for Firm Measures

Mon, 04 Apr 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Perhaps it is time for a revenue-neutral 50 cent per gallon tax on gasoline that would encourage energy conservation and promote the development of alternate energy sources.

A Reform Too Far for Europe at this Point

Thu, 31 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

One might well ask how much sense it makes for Europe to be considering tightening its macroeconomic policy stance.

Not in Tango

Sat, 26 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Emerging-market economieswill foot the bill for Argentina's spectacular triumph over its foreign creditors.

New Trade Rep's Challenge

Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

President Bush has laid out a bold agenda for Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, his nominee for U.S. trade representative.

Emerging Markets Are the Real Losers in Argentina's Triumph

Thu, 17 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Emerging markets'euphoria over Argentina's triumph in its recent debt reconstructioning negotiations with theInternational Monetary Fundwill likely not last long.

U.S. Current Account Deficit Cannot Be Sustained at Its Present Level

Tue, 01 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

U.S. policymakers would be making a grave mistake by ignoring today's large external current account deficit and by blithely going for economic growth.

Europe's Economy in the Eye of a Storm

Tue, 01 Mar 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Can Europe afford both the straightjacket of the Fiscal Stability Pact and a monetary policy that is backward-looking and solely focused on a headline inflation target?

Currency Adjustment Would Cool China's Economy

Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0100

China should bear its share of the adjustments made necessary by thelarge global payment imbalances.

U.S. Gaps: All Must Chip In

Tue, 08 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The idea circulating in European capitals that the responsibility forbudget and balance of paymentdeficits is solely that of the United States is wrong.

The United States as an Indebted Empire

Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The days seem to be long gone when the U.S. external finances can afford to be treated with the same benign neglect that they have been treated over the past four years.

Chinese Puzzle

Wed, 19 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The Bush administration should stop tiptoeing around the Chinese exchange rate issue and start putting real pressure on China to move toward a more flexible exchange rate system.

United States May Pay for Cavalier Attitude

Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:00:00 +0100

The U.S.should take on aleadership role in fashioning a coordinated approach to the problem of greater exchange rate flexibility in Asia and an easier monetary policy in Europe.

Too Gloomy about the Dollar's Fall

Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Would raising interest rates by 450 basis pointsincrease U.S. domestic savings, making room for external adjustment and obviating the need for high U.S. interest rates?

Who Is Minding the Dollar?

Fri, 17 Dec 2004 00:00:00 +0100

In the absence of effective leadership by either the U.S. Treasury or the International Monetary Fund, there is every prospect that the dollar's recent steady decline will soon turn into a rout.

View of Europe Too Sanguine

Thu, 09 Dec 2004 00:00:00 +0100

European interest rates at 2 percent do not leave the European Central Bank with much interest rate ammunition even were the bank to want to follow a more aggressive monetary policy.

China Should Not Cast Stones

Fri, 03 Dec 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Chinashould offer greater exchange rate flexibility in return for concrete commitments on the part of the United States to address its budget deficit problem.

Washington Fiddles While the Dollar Falls

Wed, 24 Nov 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The steady decline of the U.S. dollar to record lows on almost a daily basis should be sounding alarm bells in Washington.

Brazil Should Stay with the IMF

Mon, 15 Nov 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Against the background of remaining financial market vulnerability, one must ask what is the hurry for Brazil to graduate from its International Monetary Fundprogram?

The Rise of China and India Helps Explain the Fall in Japanese Wages

Fri, 12 Nov 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Economic theory suggests that an increase in the global labor to capital ratio would result in a less favorable environment for Japanese labor and abetter environment for Japanese capital.

The Morning after the U.S. Election

Thu, 04 Nov 2004 00:00:00 +0100

After President Bush’s triumph, markets must be expected to focus on the weaknesses presently characterizing the U.S. economy in general and on the budget deficit in particular.

South Africa Can Learn from Asia's Tigers

Wed, 03 Nov 2004 00:00:00 +0100

With the United States’ budget and external deficits now approaching record levels, can we be so sure that international interest rates will remain so favorable for emerging markets?

Fed Should Avoid a Knee-Jerk Rise in Interest Rates

Fri, 15 Oct 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Returning interest rates to more neutral levels would appear to be a less risky course than reacting in a knee-jerk fashion to higher oil prices by raising interest rates.

The IMF and Oil Prices

Mon, 11 Oct 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Policymakersshould wait and see how permanent the oil price shock proves to be and gauge how damaging is that shock to the global recovery before rushing to tighten economic policies.

Economic Limits to Empire

Mon, 04 Oct 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The failure to correct the U.S. external deficit soon runs the very real risk of another dollar crisis with all its attendant disruptions to U.S. financial markets and the U.S. economy.

Is There a Need to Change the Structure of the IMF and the World Bank?

Sat, 02 Oct 2004 00:00:00 +0100

If far-reaching change is needed at the International Monetary Fund, radical reform and an important downsizing should be the order of the day at the World Bank.

Argentina Is Hardly out of the Woods

Wed, 22 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

It is difficult to see how Argentina will be able to sustain its recovery over the medium term in the absence of resumed capital flows from abroad and of further reform of the economy.

Argentina Must Implement IMF's Reforms If Recovery Is to Continue

Thu, 16 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

As Argentina uses up the economy’s existing slack, maintaining satisfactory economic growth will require sustained investment and improved productivity performance.

Mismanaging the Rand

Thu, 09 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

South Africa's Reserve Bankmust seize the opportunity to build up its international reserves to obviate future wrenching currency gyrations.

Oil Prices and the Federal Reserve

Fri, 03 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

A compelling reason for the Federal Reserve to be cautious in responding to the present oil price shock is the weak general macroeconomic environmentwhere that shock is occurring.

Deregulation Dilemma

Thu, 02 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

William Donaldson has sided with the Democratic members of the SEC in a series of important split-vote decisions in favor of investment industry regulation of highly dubious merit.

Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?

Wed, 01 Sep 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Historic experience suggests that a currency union similar to that of the Euro will only hold together if that union satisfies the criteria of an optimum currency area.

Federal Reserve Credibility on the Line

Tue, 24 Aug 2004 00:00:00 +0100

If the economy shows further signs of weakening, the Federal Reserve will not want to interrupt its program of measured interest rate increases for fear of frightening the markets.

Drawing the Wrong Conclusions from Argentina

Tue, 10 Aug 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The International Monetary Fund must bear responsibility for nothaving pressedArgentina to move to an appropriate exchange rate regime when the opportunity to do so presented itself.

How Transitory Are Mr. Greenspan's "Transitory Factors"?

Fri, 30 Jul 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Alan Greenspan would do well to raise interest rates at a less rapid pace than the markets are presently anticipating.

Inflation Targeting and the Strong Rand

Tue, 27 Jul 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The South AfricanReserve Bank’s price stability objective should not be allowed to blind the Reserve Bank to the economic damage that can be wreaked by too volatile an exchange rate.

IMF Should Focus on Currency Rates

Fri, 23 Jul 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The International Monetary Fund should avoid current proposals to allow countries exceptionally large access to fund credit on a precautionary basis.

Learn from China, Mr. Mboweni

Tue, 06 Jul 2004 00:00:00 +0100

South Africa'sReserve Bankhas a lot to learn from China’s central bank about exchange rate management in today’s highly competitive world.

Global Challenges for the IMF's Mr. Rato

Fri, 25 Jun 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Spain's Rodrigo Rato takes the helm of the International Monetary Fundat one of the most critical moments in the fund's sixty-year history.

Fed Should Keep "Measured" Pace of Rate Rises Given the Uncertainty of the U.S. ...

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Too rapid a restoration of short-term interest rates to more normal levels runs the real risk of an abrupt unwinding of leverage with potentially untoward consequences for the U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve Has Inflation's Measure

Thu, 10 Jun 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Too rapid a restoration of short-term interest rates runs the risk of potentially untoward consequences for the U.S. economy.

When the Bank of China Wakes

Fri, 14 May 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Chinese authorities are regressing to the blunt instrument of administrative credit and investment controls, whereby the government dictates to the banks how much they might lend.

International Opening of the Mexican Exchange Market

Mon, 10 May 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The probable worsening in the external environment that lies ahead means that Mexico does not have the luxury of waiting till after the next presidential election to reinvigorate its reform effort.

IMF's Argentine Private Creditor Stance Is at Issue

Fri, 30 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Hopefully the arrival of Rodrigo Rato as the new managing director of the International Monetary Fundwill occasion a thorough review of the Fund's lending policy to Argentina.

The Argentine Debt Charade

Sun, 25 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The International Monetary Fund should make any further IMF lending to Argentina conditional upon Argentina making at least the same primary budget surplus effort as does Brazil.

Rapid Response Is the Answer

Thu, 22 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Too much of Australia’s recent macro-economic policy debate has focused on whether and on how the Reserve Bank should prick the perceived housing price bubble.

China Must Move from Its Dollar Peg

Wed, 14 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The sooner China moves away from its dollar peg, thebetter toavoid yet another hard landing that would now be particularly damaging to China's fragile banking system.

ANC Faces Mountain of Expectations

Tue, 06 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The African National Congressshould reflect upon the emerging market economy failures as a result of governments’ failing to take on the special interests that hinder economic change.

Chasing Yield

Thu, 01 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The maintenance of global liquidity conditions will afford the emerging market economies with a window for the strengthening of their underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.

Time for a New Broom at the IMF

Thu, 25 Mar 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The IMF is lending Argentina money to ensure that Argentina does not default on its loans; this actionshould raise basic questions about the wisdom of the IMF's current lending policy.

Beware Argentines Bearing Gifts

Fri, 05 Mar 2004 00:00:00 +0100

To join forces now with Argentina in its self-inflicted struggle with the IMF and its international creditors would seem to offer Brazil little upside but potentially large downside risks.

Regulation Is Not Enough for Fannie and Freddie

Fri, 05 Mar 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Limiting oneself to regulatory reform of Fannie and Freddie along the lines suggested by Alan Greenspan hardly reduces the risk of repeating the savings and loan type crisis of the 1980s.

Argentina Solution Is Not So Simple

Tue, 17 Feb 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Having contributed so importantly to Argentina's present debt predicament, should the IMF now not shoulder its fair share of any eventual Argentine debt restructuring?

Return to Rules-Based Policy May Help IMF Avoid Future Disasters

Mon, 02 Feb 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The IMF's present large outstanding loans to Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey should remind us that Argentina is not the only country that might have difficulty in repaying the IMF.

Mr. Trichet Is No Alan Greenspan

Thu, 15 Jan 2004 00:00:00 +0100

By maintaining interest rate differentials in favor of Europe, Mr. Trichet runs the risk of fueling the euro's rise against the dollar that would only exacerbate deflationary pressures on Europe.

Lula Should Renew His Vows This Anniversary

Mon, 12 Jan 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Lula should be encouraged to deepen pension and tax reforms, and to revitalise Brazil's moribund privatisation programme to attract foreign direct investment.

The Criteria for Monetary Union

Wed, 07 Jan 2004 00:00:00 +0100

Is a monetary union along the lines of Emu a good idea for countries that fail to meet the basic economic criteria of an optimum currency area?

A Tale of Overzealous Central Banks

Mon, 22 Dec 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Canthe ECB and the Reserve Bank be encouraged constitutionally to be overzealous on the inflation front at the expense of economic growth and employment?

Chinese Should Choose This Route to Revaluation

Fri, 05 Dec 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Sadly for the global economy, Chinese authorities will not change what they regard to be a highly successful exchange rate peg in the near future

Liquidity's Triumph over Emerging Market Fundamentals

Wed, 03 Dec 2003 00:00:00 +0100

The likely maintenance of favorable global liquidity conditions over the next few months affords the emerging markets with a window for the needed strengthening of their fundamentals.

IMF Should Blow the Whistle

Mon, 01 Dec 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Beyond introducing greater candor in its surveillance activities, the IMF would restore more transparency to its lending operations.

Snow May Get the Dollar He Wants

Fri, 28 Nov 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Given the dollar's clay feet, it is surprising that Treasury Secretary Snow takes it upon himself to periodically talk down the currency.

China Is Being Manipulative

Thu, 13 Nov 2003 00:00:00 +0100

China would do better to achieve the needed real appreciation of its currency by appreciating the currency in nominal terms.

China--Crawling Peg No Solution

Tue, 21 Oct 2003 00:00:00 +0100

China's ultimate objective must be to float the currency to allow it to find its own level in a world of capital convertibility.

Trichet Must Aim for a Pre-emptive Style of Monetary Policy When He Takes Over the ECB

Wed, 15 Oct 2003 00:00:00 +0100

One would hope that Jean-Claude Trichet would use his leadership of the European Central Bank to forge the pre-emptive type of monetary policy in order to avert the risks of deflation.

Real Interest Rates Must Stay Low to Ensure Recovery

Tue, 30 Sep 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Japan's experience in the 1990s underlines the havoc falling property prices and rising corporate bankruptcies associated with deflation can wreak on bank solvency.

Reserve Bank Could Learn from Bold Greenspan

Thu, 25 Sep 2003 00:00:00 +0100

The South African Reserve Bank could learn from Alan Greenspan's monetary policy easing in the United States.

Fixed Exchange Rates Fail Emerging Economies

Thu, 04 Sep 2003 00:00:00 +0100

It is encouraging to learn that the International Monetary Fund no longer promotes the view that emerging market countries should be hastening to carry out rapid capital account liberalisation.

The Reserve Bank's Mistaken Policy Path

Tue, 02 Sep 2003 00:00:00 +0100

The Reserve Bank should ascribe more weight to currency movements in setting interest rate policy.

The IMF Should Renew Its Support for Brazil

Wed, 20 Aug 2003 00:00:00 +0100

An IMF programme matching repayments would not increase the IMF's net exposure to Brazil, butassuring the market of the Fund's support would improve Brazil's economic growth prospects.

Lula Still Needs the IMF

Thu, 31 Jul 2003 00:00:00 +0100

This week’s meetings of the IMF with Brazilian government officials in Brasilia will be an occasion for self-congratulation.

Deflation, Not Inflation, Is Threat Facing Germany

Tue, 22 Jul 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Germany's most pressing economic problem would seem to be a lack of aggregate demand.

Germany's Unemployment and Output Gaps Hardly Offer Reassurance on Risk of Deflation

Tue, 08 Jul 2003 00:00:00 +0100

As Japan's recent deflationary experience would suggest, one needs to be forward- and not backward-looking in gauging the problem of deflation.

Lula's Choice--Inflation or the Deep Blue Sea

Wed, 02 Jul 2003 00:00:00 +0100

It would seem better to relax now Brazil’s inflation targets further than was done this week, while market conditions remain favorable and while the Brazilian authorities are in control.

Asia's Currency Free-Riders Must Pay Their Way

Wed, 25 Jun 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Given the IMF's poor record of combating currency manipulation, it falls to the U.S. to take a lead in exerting pressure on Asia's currency manipulators.

The Only Realistic Option for Iraq

Tue, 17 Jun 2003 00:00:00 +0100

Recent successful experiencesin Brazil and Mexico demonstrate that emerging market economies are capable of managing a floating exchange rate.

Currency Volatility Demands Reserve Bank Intervention

Fri, 13 Jun 2003 00:00:00 +0100

The Reserve Bank would do well to review China, Korea, and Taiwan's exchange rate management policies and to take a leaf out of their books to pave the way for export led growth.

Deflation Threat to World that Should Not Be Overlooked

Thu, 05 Jun 2003 00:00:00 +0100

There is no serious economic research that would suggest that an inflation rate of 3 percent would be harmful to long-run global prosperity.

As the Dollar Declines

Thu, 29 May 2003 00:00:00 +0100

If experience is any guide, events in the currency markets will likely force the G-8 to change its hands-off attitude toward the dollar before the summer is over.

The False Optimists of the Emerging Markets

Tue, 20 May 2003 00:00:00 +0100

The worsening of the global economic environment is fueling the rally in emerging market debt prices.

Economic Policies for a New South Africa

Wed, 01 Jan 1992 00:00:00 +0100

Thisbook focuses on the redistributive and growth policies needed in a new South Africa.

The Deflating Bubble, Part VI: The Lessons of the Bubble and Crisis

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:00:00 +0100

Does the Euro Pose a Threat to the U.S. Dollar?

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:00:00 +0100

China Since Tiananmen: Power, Party, and Society

Tue, 26 May 2009 09:00:00 +0100

Can the IMF Really Save the World?

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 09:00:00 +0100

The Deflating Bubble, Part V: Forecast and Policy Recommendations for the Next Six Months

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:00:00 +0100

Mr. Market Miscalculates

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:30:00 +0100

The Deflating Mortgage and Housing Bubble, Part IV: Where Is the Bottom?

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:00:00 +0100

What Lies Beyond the Credit Crunch? Part III

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:00:00 +0100

Partners in Peril: How Will Japan's Economic Woes Affect the United States?

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:30:00 +0100

Income and Poverty: The Real Story behind the Census Bureau Numbers

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:30:00 +0100

Will the Global Economy Turn Down?

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:00:00 +0100

Is the Federal Reserve on the Right Track?

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:00:00 +0100

Is China Taking Unfair Advantage of Its Trade Partners?

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:00:00 +0100

What If the United States Sneezed and Latin America Didn't Catch a Cold?

Thu, 29 May 2008 09:00:00 +0100

What Lies Beyond the Credit Crunch? Part II

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 14:00:00 +0100

The Deflating Mortgage and Housing Bubble, Part III: What Next?

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 16:00:00 +0100

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Pose a Risk to the United States?

Mon, 25 Feb 2008 09:30:00 +0100

What Lies Beyond the Credit Crunch?

Mon, 17 Dec 2007 14:00:00 +0100

The Deflating Mortgage and Housing Bubble, Part II

Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:00:00 +0100

Is the IMF Still Relevant?

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:00:00 +0100

Do We Still Need the World Bank?

Thu, 14 Jun 2007 14:30:00 +0100

Does a Falling Dollar Threaten Global Economic Recovery?

Thu, 31 May 2007 14:00:00 +0100

Mortgage Credit and Subprime Lending: Implications of a Deflating Bubble

Wed, 28 Mar 2007 16:00:00 +0100

The IMF’s Role in Foreign Exchange Surveillance

Thu, 02 Feb 2006 12:30:00 +0100

Latin America's Lurch to the Left

Fri, 27 Jan 2006 10:00:00 +0100

Inflation Targeting at Bernanke's Fed?

Tue, 22 Nov 2005 10:00:00 +0100

Russia: Today, Tomorrow - and in 2008

Fri, 14 Oct 2005 09:00:00 +0100

Does the Euro Have a Future?

Fri, 16 Sep 2005 14:00:00 +0100

The World Bank under Wolfowitz

Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:30:00 +0100

Economic Trends in Putin's Russia

Wed, 20 Apr 2005 14:00:00 +0100

Cross-Border Issues in Major and Minor Tax Reforms

Tue, 22 Feb 2005 09:30:00 +0100

China and the Global Economic Recovery

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 14:15:00 +0100

Policy Challenges of Global Payment Imbalances

Thu, 04 Nov 2004 15:00:00 +0100

From De-Bolshevization to De-Baathification

Fri, 15 Oct 2004 09:00:00 +0100

Privatizing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks

Mon, 04 Oct 2004 14:00:00 +0100

Global Economic Challenges for the IMF's New Chief

Wed, 09 Jun 2004 14:00:00 +0100

A Change of Guard in India

Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:00:00 +0100

Argentina

Wed, 31 Mar 2004 14:00:00 +0100

Venezuela

Wed, 18 Feb 2004 09:00:00 +0100

Government Policy and Financial Market Stability

Fri, 06 Feb 2004 09:00:00 +0100

The Russian Economy: Strategic Trends, Problems, and Opportunities

Fri, 30 Jan 2004 09:00:00 +0100

Brazil

Thu, 22 Jan 2004 09:00:00 +0100

Should China Float Its Currency?

Wed, 15 Oct 2003 14:30:00 +0100

Turkey at the Crossroads

Mon, 22 Sep 2003 09:30:00 +0100

The Fall of the Dollar and the Global Economy

Tue, 22 Jul 2003 08:45:00 +0100

Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists

Wed, 21 May 2003 14:30:00 +0100

Boom after Baghdad?

Fri, 16 May 2003 09:00:00 +0100

Foreign Policy Implications of the Global Economic Crisis

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:00:00 +0100

There is likely to be major political fallout from what will be the worst global economic slump in the postwar period.

On the Fiscal Road to Serfdom

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0100

In today's economic context, where an ever-increasing portion of the U.S. budget deficit is being financed by foreigners and where entitlement programs threaten to compound an already highly compromised public finance position, there is real risk of either a destructive burst of inflation or an outright government debt default.

The Deficit Endgame

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 00:00:00 +0100

Countries with deficits that averaged about 20 percent of GDP have historically proceeded down three divergent paths. This paper discusses the historical evidence along each of these three paths and compares the current U.S. situation to past experiences.

How Should IMF Resources Be Expanded?

Fri, 23 Sep 2005 00:00:00 +0100

Among the more striking aspects of the International Monetary Fund is how little its financial structure has changed since its inception in 1944.

Europe Catches Pneumonia

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

Plunging global equity prices and frozen global credit markets are leading Europe into the start of its worst economic recession in the postwar period.

The Honeymoon Is Over before It Begins

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100

The current financial crisis will force Obama to put his long-term agenda on the back burner.

Go Back to Basics at the IMF

Thu, 01 Apr 2004 00:00:00 +0100

The nomination ofa new managing director for the International Monetary Fund should return the Fund's focus to exchange-rate issues and assistance of countries in fiscal crisis.