In his new economic outlook Third time unlucky: recession in 2014? John H. Makin uses historic business cycle trends and economic indicators to predict the future health of the American economy. His conclusion? A recession in the near future. If the economy is weakening heading into the third quarter, policymakers will need to enact policies to prolong expansion and boost the economy. 

The past two postswoon recoveries have not gotten the economy entirely back on track, but markets and, more notably, the Federal Reserve are betting on the third time being lucky. Instead of resting on this wishful thinking, Congress and the Fed need to start exploring measures that will prolong the expansion.

With Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on the horizon, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pushing to print more money and enact an ambitious stimulus program, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) economist John Makin has released his latest economic outlook which examines lessons from Japan’s past for...

In his State of the Union address Tuesday, President Obama played on Congress' fears that an abrupt spending sequester at a rate of about $110 billion per year ($1.1 trillion over 10 years) scheduled to begin March 1 would devastate the economy.

In his April Economic Outlook, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) economist John Makin assesses the risks the world faces as a result of China’s slowing economy. With the coming transition in Chinese leadership, it is unlikely that the world's second largest economy will alter its policies to stimulate growth. As a result, the whole world may feel China's pain.

The good news is that the sequester should make a big dent in US debt. The bad news is that political squabbles will undo that.

As the deficit reduction debate drags on, talk is growing in Washington about allowing the US to go over the fiscal cliff, triggering $600bn of spending cuts and tax increases in the new year.

In anticipation of President Obama's budget reform speech on Wednesday, April 13, several AEI scholars will be available to comment on the economic and political implications of the speech: Andrew Biggs, John H. Makin, Vincent Reinhart, Alan Viard, Michael Barone, Karlyn Bowman, and Norman J. Ornstein.