Fourteen months ago, President Bush launched the surge strategy in Iraq. Since then, violence has decreased dramatically: fewer American troops died in December 2007 than in any month since the beginning of the war; civilian casualties in December numbered less than a quarter of those one year prior; and terrorism claimed 178 lives in January 2008, compared to 1,087 in February 2007. Moreover, political progress, fostered by these security gains, has finally manifested itself in the form of amnesty and budgetary measures passed by the Iraqi parliament.
Yet these breakthroughs should not precipitate hasty action. Despite a planned return to pre-surge troop levels by July 2008, many have called for further reductions later this year. Would such drawdowns endanger security and political progress? How will the Sons of Iraq, the often-armed neighborhood watch associations that buttressed the turnaround in Anbar province and other areas, integrate into the Iraq Security Forces? What can be done to deter Iran from continuing to equip, train, and bankroll Shiite factions in Iraq? Is it possible to reorient our Middle East policy to rely on Iraq as a democratic ally instead of on traditional authoritarian allies, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia?
Please join AEI for the release of Iraq: The Way Ahead, the fourth and final report of the Iraq Planning Group. AEI’s Frederick W. Kagan and the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack will discuss these questions, among others, and the future of U.S. policy toward Iraq.
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