Can Rice Prevent Harvest of Death?

Condoleezza Rice, the newly confirmed US secretary of state, has identified Zimbabwe as one of six “outposts of tyranny”. But experts on Zimbabwe are far from certain whether she will force regime change in the African country most in need of it.

Most commentators are focusing on the elections, due to take place next month. President Robert Mugabe–who stole the last two elections, in 2000 and 2002, by ballot rigging, intimidation, voter fraud and many other constitutional violations–has said he will live up to the election requirements of the Southern African Development Community.

The most important are political tolerance, freedom of association, equal access to state media, and independence of the judiciary and electoral institutions.

But there is no sign as yet of political tolerance, or any other condition, says the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), whose leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, told me in November he did not expect Mugabe to honor any of the conditions.

But if Zanu (PF) reduced violence he would lead his party into the elections. More recently, Tsvangirai said: “By and large we have witnessed a decrease in cases of open violence against political opponents.”

However, some more skeptical insiders, including his adviser Welshman Ncube, say the police continue the violence. They also stop the MDC from holding political rallies, while party activists remain at risk of being abducted, beaten and tortured by ruling party militias and members of the security forces.

Further, from analysis of the 2000 electoral roll, there are perhaps 400000 deceased people available to vote–and as one activist quipped: “The dead don’t vote for the opposition.”

The Independent Electoral Commission is neither a real commission nor is it independent of Mugabe’s control. The independent media has been reduced to two weekly papers, and the courageous journalists who try to report in a fair and balanced way are routinely arrested and tortured.

The independent Daily News was bombed out of its offices in 2003, and Zanu (PF)controlled television and radio stations spout antiMDC propaganda, accusing it of the very acts of savagery (rape and murder) Zanu (PF) commits.

So why is Tsvangirai not boycotting an election he cannot win? The first and more palatable reason is that if the MDC boycotts the elections, Zanu (PF) will have enough MPs to change the constitution, which could be crucial when Mugabe dies or is overthrown. The MDC holds 57 seats, and must hold at least 50 to veto constitutional amendments.

This is important as elections must be held if the president dies or resigns. But some rulingparty officials would like Mugabe to appoint a successor, who would have a few years in power before facing the people with advantages of incumbency. Nevertheless, even if the MDC takes part in the election, it may not retain 50 seats to prevent political nepotism.

The second reason Tsvangirai may be taking part is to hold his party together under his leadership, with or without hope of victory. He will maintain support of an international community that admires him–which will keep him on the world stage–and prevent SA’s and international officials from acting.

Inaction from SA has been the order of the day so far. The quiet diplomacy–the “talk, talk and more talk”–of President Thabo Mbeki is not changing anything in Zimbabwe, and the west’s support of it has, so far, done no good.

Unlike Darfur or the Asian tsunami, the bodies are not piling up under the scrutiny of videohungry media. Black Zimbabweans are dying in rural communities of starvation and HIV, as harvests are about 15% of normal and there are no drugs to treat any but the fortunate.

With the next harvest due to be the lowest for decades, the death toll is set to rise, and around election time. With most food being allocated to Zanu (PF) voters, the time to act on the betrayal of the most basic human right is now.

Rice is to be commended for addressing Zimbabwe, but the rhetorical battle has just begun. She must convince southern African leaders that US aid, military support and other diplomacy–such as trade deals–hinge on them solving the problem.

They must believe that, unless they enforce election protocols agreed to by Mugabe, the US will withdraw support to the region: business as usual is no longer acceptable for this outpost of tyranny.

Roger Bate is a visiting fellow at AEI.