Iran: Possible to expand missile range
Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal has grown steadily since the 1980s when the Islamic Republic relied on Scud missiles in the so-called “war of the cities” and both Iran and Iraq launched missiles at each other’s population centers. In 1998, Iran publicly unveiled the Shahab-3 missile, a variant of the North Korean Nodong. Over subsequent years, it has experimented with solid fuel and multi-stage rockets, leading to the 2008 introduction of the Sajjil missile. In 2009, Iran launched a satellite from a multistage Safir rocket, in theory the same technology that would be necessary to build an intercontinental ballistic missile.
While the Shahab-3B in theory could have a range of 2,500 kilometers [1553 miles]—enough to put all of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel in Iran’s crosshairs—there is little evidence that Iran has yet built ballistic missiles that could hit targets further afield. Many experts put Iran’s current missile range at no more than 2,000 kilometers [1242 miles].
If the comments of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief Mohammad Ali Jafari excerpted here from the Fars News Agency are true, however, then the decision to limit the range of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal to just 2,000 kilometers is a decision guided by policy rather than technical ability. Jafari suggests that Iran will expand the range of its arsenal in reaction to a potential US attack. Such a statement is reminiscent of the 2005 explanation by then-Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hassan Rouhani that a decision to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was transactional and depended on European and US policies rather than any technical limitations. In particular, Jafari says he objects to the ‘Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’ which became public law (No. 115-44 ) on 2 August 2017. However, the fact that he made his statement almost two months after the passage of new sanctions in the US Congress suggests his threat is rhetorical because, if it were real, Iran would already have taken the action he threatens.
Jafari also said that the range of their missiles is limited by the policies set by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. If this is correct, the IRGC may expand the range of its arsenal after Khamenei’s death and during the transition between supreme leaders. It would also suggest that a new supreme leader will face no technical impediment to bolstering the range of Iran’s arsenal.
