Kurdish leaders prefer own political fate to unity

The operation to oust the terrorist group of the Islamic State (Daesh) is going on by different Iraqi forces, including the Kurdish autonomous region in the north. Its Peshmerga forces are in battle with the group as the Kurdistan Regional Government is battling economic crisis and political rifts among parties in the region whose leaders have repeatedly called for and reiterated on holding a referendum and declaring its independence from the central government in Baghdad.

Kurdpress talked to Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) who has worked as an official at the Pentagon, where he dealt with issues in the Middle East and Kurdistan Region in particular on which he has written a book Kurdistan Rising that has been translated into Kurdish.

He believes that the Kurdish regions suffers from internal dispute and corruption and blamed its leaders for seeking their own interests rather than those of the region, reiterating that the leaders are the main hurdles on declaring the region’s independence and establishing a Kurdish state in the north of Iraq as the situation is ripe for the historical step to be taken.

What follows is his answers to Kurdpress questions.

What do you think about political situation in Kurdistan Region?

This is a question I explored in depth in my recent monograph, Kurdistan Rising. (It can be read in English here, or Sorani Kurdish here). The basic themes, however, are something almost everyone agrees on: Too many Kurdish leaders put their own political or material fortunes above broader Kurdish unity. While there might be multiple Kurdish political parties, democracy is in short supply as each major party—Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)—essentially run themselves as dictatorship.

What caused financial crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan Region and how can it be solved?

It’s easy for Kurdish leaders to blame Baghdad. There are two sides to that story, but it’s impossible to say that Baghdad is the sole cause of the financial trouble or even the major problem. Rather, what has caused the financial crisis in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has been greed, arrogance, and stupidity. The Kurdish leadership believed themselves smarter than everyone else. They believed they were in the stronger negotiating position never recognizing that of the top 20 oil exporters in the world, none is landlocked (even Kazakhstan has an outlet on the Caspian Sea). They fell into the rentier trap. Family trumped competence, and so people who were taxi drivers and car mechanics on one hand, or who never worked a real job in their lives were making strategic decisions in a complete ignorant fashion.

In what ways radical thinking like ISIS can threaten Kurdistan Region?

If enough people become desperate because they cannot find jobs commensurate with their education and merit, they may look for alternatives which present themselves as above corruption, including radical Islamism. The Barzanis and Talabanis cannot expect endless loyalty if they look at Kurdistan as their own private pasture to plunder.

What do you think about Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence process and how possible it is?

It’s possible, but the Kurdish leaders are not serious about it. Masoud Barzani has talked about a referendum, for example. What’s the phrasing of the question? It would take five minutes to finalize. When KDP peshmerga abandoned Sinjar and senior Barzanis boarded airplanes to Dubai, Istanbul, and Qatar as Daesh is on the offensive, it is useful to start talking about a referendum and nationalism to distract ordinary people.

The last several new countries have failed: South Sudan, Eritrea, East Timor, Kosovo. Kurds may point to the Czech Republic or Slovakia, but with competing political factions and factionalized peshmerga, they will more likely end up in state failure. The time to prepare for independence politically, economically, and militarily is now and the Kurdish leadership is unprepared.

What are interior and exterior obstacles to Kurdish independence in Iraq?

The internal problem is lack of unity and poor finances. The external problem are the surrounding countries.

What do you think about situation in Iraq in post ISISI era?

I am a supporter of administrative federalism: Oil revenue should be distributed to every province or district according to its population. The only thing the central government should handle is defense and foreign affairs. The same holds true for the Kurdistan region: If Erbil wants to handle foreign affairs and coordinate peshmerga, fine. But why must all the other money be handled by bloated Barzani and Talabani bureaucracies rather than be sent locally?

Do you think Syrian Kurds can reach independence or what would the situation be like in that part of Syria?

Rojava is probably too isolated to be independent, but it has proven itself as a federal region running its own affairs.

How U.S can manage Turkey and Syrian Kurd’s conflicts- Turkey as a partner and Kurds as an agent against ISIS?

Ultimately, the United States will have to make a choice. A decade ago, the choice was simple: Turkey, whatever its faults, was a NATO ally and a decades-long partner. But Erdogan is increasingly erratic. Working with him is quickly becoming a liability. That he seems to support Daesh in fact if not in rhetoric only underscores the fact that it’s time to isolate Turkey and partner more fully with the Kurds, if the Kurds can get their own house in order.

Are differences between KDP, and especially Barzani, with PKK both politically and in discourse?

The political culture is similar: neither the KDP nor the PKK are democratic, despite their rhetoric. The biggest difference is in economic philosophy. The PKK has never fully shed its Marxism or its hostility to foreign investment.

Can Kurdish parties reach an agreement and end the tensions?

If leaders can put aside their own selfish greed, yes. But let’s face it: Kurdish leaders care more for money and giving their sons fancy political or military ranks than they do about Kurdistan itself.

Are changes in Syria and Iraq in Kurd’s favor?

Yes.

What is the west’s attitude towards the Kurds, in general?

Overwhelmingly positive, though there is growing frustration with the Kurds’ corruption. The biggest change in recent years has been with regard to how the Syrian Kurds have begun to shift popular attitudes toward the PKK in a more favorable direction.

Would world powers and countries like Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria agree with border changes and creating new states in Iraq and Syria?

Iran is the biggest obstacle: It fears the precedent inside Iran of the ethnic fracturing of Syria or Iraq. Turkey could accept an independent Iraqi Kurdistan so long as Turkey became its dominant power.