Union Disconnect

Research Fellow John C. Fortier

Call it the Labor Paradox. The percentage of Americans belonging to unions is dropping, but the 110th Congress is the most pro-union Congress in a generation.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2006 only 12 percent of wage and salary employees were union members, compared to 20 percent in 1983 and nearly 33 percent after Word War II. And the composition of union membership has changed, with more public-sector employees and with the percentage of unionized private-sector employees dropping to 7.4 percent in 2006.

Despite declining membership, union support in the 110th is strong for two reasons. First, the Democratic Party once had a strong Southern bloc that strongly opposed unions, but that bloc has melted away. Second, unions were skillful players in the 2006 elections, turning out voters in union districts in the Midwest and Northeast.

Democratic congressional support for unions is evident in card-check legislation, which would tilt the playing field toward unions in efforts to organize. Current law calls for a secret-ballot election in which a majority of employees must vote to have a union represent them. The proposed change would dispense with the secret ballot and bring in union representation when a majority of employees sign a card. The legislation recently passed the House with only two Democrats, the conservative Dan Boren (Okla.) and Gene Taylor (Miss.), voting against it. Republicans were nearly as unified against it, with only 13 crossing the aisle to vote for the bill.

Oh, what a difference a generation makes. In 1977, a major bill to make organizing easier had the support of President Carter and passed the Democratic House, but the Democratic Senate killed it with a filibuster. On the six cloture votes, between 17 and 20 Democratic senators, mostly from the South, supported the filibuster. This Southern Democratic bloc was not only willing to oppose the measure, but to put itself on the line to filibuster against it. Add to that the power that many Southern chairmen had in the House and the Senate, which they would often use to thwart labor’s program.

In the 110th, Republicans may filibuster card-check legislation, but they should not expect Democratic help. There are only four Southern Democratic senators, and all were cosponsors of a card-check bill in the 109th. There are certainly business-friendly “new Democrats” in Congress, but they tend to be at least modestly supportive of unions, unlike the old-style Southern Democrats.

Labor strength in the 110th also derives from its identification and support of Democrats like Tim Walz (Minn.) and Jason Altmire (Pa.), who were considered long-shots in the midterm, but whose districts had high percentages of union members. Unions also made support of card-check legislation an explicit condition for its support of candidates. Finally, after opposition to the Iraq war, the most common theme sounded on the campaign trail was economic populism, with many candidates running ads opposing free trade.

Union strength in the 110th is probably not enough to enact a labor agenda. The Senate is very closely divided, and President Bush has pledged to veto card check if it reaches his desk. But labor might win big if a Democrat takes the White House in 2008. Of the past 39 years, only six have found Democrats in both the White House and Congress. In the Carter years, Southern Democrats were a thorn in labor’s side. In President Clinton’s first two years, he was sometimes friendly to labor, but many union supporters still recoil at his championing of NAFTA. In 2008, labor hopes that the third time will be the charm.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.