Carpe Diem

A blog by Mark J. Perry, est. 2006

Today is the 88th anniversary of the end of alcohol prohibition (Drug War I); hopefully, we’ll someday end our second failed attempt at prohibition (Drug War II)

Blog Post
December 05, 2021


Today (December 5) is Repeal Day (#RepealDay) and marks the 88th anniversary of the day in 1933 that the 21st Amendment to the US Constitution was passed to repeal the 18th Amendment, and officially ended America’s first failed, deadly, and costly “War on Drugs I” (alcohol prohibition) that started in 1920. The 21st amendment is unique among the 27 Amendments to the US Constitution because it is the only time a previous Amendment has been repealed, and it’s the only Amendment that was ratified by the state-ratifying convention method.

Just like the shameful, expensive and repressive War on Drugs I (Alcohol) failed in the 1920s and 1930s, so today is the country’s second costly, immoral and senseless War or Drugs Otherwise Peaceful Americans Who Voluntarily Choose to Ingest Plants, Weeds, and Intoxicants Arbitrarily Proscribed by the US Government failing miserably. Hopefully at some point in a more sane, compassionate and enlightened future the celebration of Repeal Day on December 5 will include a recognition of the repeal of today’s insane drug laws (Drug War II) and second failed attempt at prohibition following Drug War I against alcohol.

In 2014, Law Enforcement Action Partnership (LEAP), a group of law enforcement officials opposed to today’s second failed attempt at prohibition, created a Buzzfeed list titled “10 Shocking Reasons to End the Drug War (And Consider Legalization and Regulation)” to explain why Drug War II has been one of the most disastrous policies in American history. From mass incarceration and the tremendous loss of life to billions of dollars seized from citizens every year, drug prohibition today is a colossal failure, just like alcohol prohibition was equally a massive failure nearly 100 years ago. LEAP’s list of reasons to end today’s version of prohibition is meant to remind the public of the civil and human rights violations being committed against so many Americans every day, and Repeal Day on December 5 is a good time to review the reasons why today’s version of prohibition should end. Here’s a summary of the ten reasons to end the War on Drugs (with some updates and additional statistics) — America’s second failed attempt at using police state powers to prohibit otherwise peaceful Americans from ingesting intoxicants arbitrarily banned by the government. 

1. Mass Incarceration – Drug offenses account for nearly half (46%) of federal prisoners, and more than 16% of people jailed in state prisons. Today, about 500,000 Americans are behind bars for drug law violations, 10 times the number in 1980. In 1980, for example, 580,900 people were arrested on drug-related charges in the United States. By 2014, that number had increased to 1,561,231. More than 700,000 of these arrests in 2014 were related to marijuana. Largely because of drug prohibition, the US is the World’s No. 1 Jailer, and has an incarceration rate (639 per 100,000 population), which is higher than Cuba (510 per 100,000), China (121 per 100,000), Russia (325 per 100,000), Rwanda (511 per 100,000) and Iran (228 per 100,000). The US accounts for 4.25% of the world’s population, but houses 22% of the world’s prisoners.

2. Racial Bias in Drug Arrests and Jail Sentences – Blacks and whites use drugs at about the same rate, but blacks are three times more likely than whites to be arrested on drug charges and ten times more likely to be sent to state prison on drug charges than whites.

3. Asset Forfeiture Abuses – In 2012 alone, the US Justice Department seized $4.2 billion in forfeitures of private property. In 2014, for the first time ever, law enforcement officers took more property from American citizens (more than $5 billion) than burglars did (less than $4 billion) as civil asset forfeitures surpassed burglaries.

4. America’s Deadly Heroin Epidemic — During 2019, more than 14,000 people died from drug overdoses involving heroin in the United States, a rate of more than 4 deaths for every 100,000 Americans. Heroin-related overdose deaths increased five-fold from 2010 to 2019. As the nation has cracked down on prescription opioid abuse, people suffering from addiction have turned to heroin, a cheaper, easily accessible option.

5. The Breakdown between Law Police and the Community, because of the increasing militarization of US law enforcement and aggressive enforcement of drug laws (see Item 9 below).

6. Mexican Drug Cartel Violence – It’s estimated that the Mexican Drug War claimed 200,000 lives and left 30,000 Mexicans missing in the 10-year period between 2007 and 2017, including more than 4,000 federal, state and local police officers and 12,500 cartel members.

A record annual high of nearly 35,000 people were murdered in Mexico in 2019 as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador struggled to rein in violent crime in his first year in office. A government agency reported a total 34,582 murders last year, a 2.5% increase from 2018, when 33,743 victims were recorded. To put 68,325 drug-related deaths in Mexico over a two-year period (2018 and 2019) in perspective, consider that 58,000 Americans died in the Vietnam War over a 20-year period from 1955 to 1975. 

7. The War on Women – No country incarcerates more women than the US, and 85% of women jailed in America are serving time for non-violent crimes like drug offenses.

8. Entrapment of Minors – Like the case of Jesse Snodgrass (an autistic teen also diagnosed with bipolar disorder and Tourette’s Syndrome who struggles socially). A police officer posed as a high school student, pretended to be Jesse’s friend, and harassed him until he sold him marijuana.

9. SWAT Raids Kill People and Family Pets – Between 2010 and 2016 there were at least 81 civilians and 13 law enforcement officers who died in what are called “dynamic entry”, “no knock” (SWAT) raids. The Department of Justice estimates that nearly 25 dogs are killed by law enforcement every day in the United States, which totals to more than 9,000 dogs per year.

10. The Costly Drug War Spends Billions of Taxpayer Dollars on Enforcement, Arrests, Court Costs, Jail Time, etc. Since the War on Drugs II began nearly 50 years ago, the U.S. government has spent more than $1 trillion on interdiction policies, and spending on the costly, failed war continues to cost U.S. taxpayers more than $51 billion annually.

Bonus Quotation on Prohibition from H.L. Mencken in 1925:

Five years of Prohibition have had, at least, this one benign effect: they have completely disposed of the favorite arguments of the Prohibitionists. None of the great boons and usufructs that were to follow the passage of the Eighteenth Amendment has come to pass. Prohibition has not only failed in its promises but actually created additional serious and disturbing social problems throughout society. There is not less drunkenness in the Republic, but more. There is not less crime, but more. There is not less insanity, but more. The cost of government is not smaller, but vastly greater. Respect for law has not increased, but diminished.

Conclusion from a 2017 Cato Institute Study on Prohibition (“Four Decades and Counting: The Continued Failure of the War on Drugs“) by Chris Coyne and Abigail Hall:

For more than 100 years, prohibition has been the primary policy in the United States with regard to illicit substances. As the data show, however, these policies fail on practically every margin. Economic thinking illustrates that these failures are not only understandable, but entirely predictable. As a result of prohibition and the changes it induces in the market for drugs, increased disease, death, violence, and cartels are all expectable outcomes. Moreover, economics can help us link together these policies with other issues, such as race relations and police militarization.

Hoppy Repeal Day!


Comments



Video of the day on how liberal hypocrisy is fueling inequality in the US

Blog Post
December 05, 2021

Amazing video on liberal hypocrisy from the New York Times, which itself is amazing. Here’s the description:

It’s easy to blame the other side. And for many Democrats, it’s obvious that Republicans are thwarting progress toward a more equal society.

But what happens when Republicans aren’t standing in the way?

In many states — including California, New York and Illinois — Democrats control all the levers of power. They run the government. They write the laws. And as we explore in the video above, they often aren’t living up to their values.

In key respects, many blue states are actually doing worse than red states. It is in the blue states where affordable housing is often hardest to find, there are some of the most acute disparities in education funding and economic inequality is increasing most quickly.

Instead of asking, “What’s the matter with Kansas?” Democrats need to spend more time pondering, “What’s the matter with California?”

Note the first comment below the video is “I would never have believed the NYT would run a story like this. Well done.”

Related: See CD post “Top 10 inbound vs. top 10 outbound US states in 2019: How do they compare on a variety of measures?” Note that in 2019, Democrats control the legislative and executive branches in 8 of the top ten outbound states, and Republicans control the legislative and executive branches in 8 of the top ten inbound states. Q.E.D.


Comments



Venn diagram of the day

Blog Post
December 05, 2021

Featured today on Cafe Hayek.


Comments



Monday afternoon links, all graphic edition

Blog Post
November 29, 2021

1. Chart of the Day I (above) shows the narrative-destabilizing labor market reality that according to BLS data (here and here) Asian women out-earned white men in six of the last nine quarters. For the most recent quarter (2021:Q3), Asian women earned 9.1% (and $102) more per week than white men. How to explain this gender earnings gap favoring Asian women? Gender discrimination and male privilege are always the “go-to” explanations for any gender earnings gap favoring men, so perhaps there’s discrimination in the labor market against white men in favor of Asian women? And when there are white-black earnings gaps that favor whites, we often hear that “white privilege” is the reason, so perhaps “Asian privilege” is a factor in the labor market especially because it’s also true that Asian men out-earn white men.

Related: The REAL reason women earn less at work: Harvard professor says sex discrimination, gender bias or a glass ceiling aren’t to blame – it’s ‘greedy’ jobs that are impossible to sustain once women have children

2. Chart of the Day II (above) shows the declining search interest over time on Google for the term “peak oil.” Remember that misguided obsession in the days before hydraulic fracking and especially horizontal drilling revolutionized US oil production starting about 2009 and reversed a thirty-year decline in output in only ten years on the way to making the US the world’s No. 1 crude oil producer? Peak what?

3. Chart of the Day III (above) shows why we’re experiencing the highest inflation in 30 years and why it might not be “transient.” Since 1981, the Federal Reserve has increased M2 by about $19.5 trillion. If we divide that M2 growth into three periods when $6.5 trillion of new M2 was created, it took 336 months between January 1981 to December 2008 to create the first $6.5T, then 127 months from January 2009 to July 2019 to create the next $6.5T of new M2, and then only 27 months from August 2019 to October 2021 to create the last colossal, eye-popping addition of $6,500,000,000,000 in new M2! For another graphic that helps to understand just how much money (M2) has been created in less than two years, check out this stunning FRED chart.

4. Chart of the Day IV (above) displays some market-based evidence of the California-to-Texas exodus that has been taking place in recent years. Demand is so high for one-way 26-foot U-Haul trucks (and supply is so low) from San Francisco to Dallas relative for the low demand for one-way trucks in the opposite direction that it costs 8.3 times more for San Francisco-Dallas ($7,054) than for Dallas-San Francisco (only $854). The $854 cost for a 26-foot truck from Dallas to San Francisco in mid-December is actually less than the cost of a one-way rental for an SUV from Enterprise of $918. The difference in one-way U-Haul truck rental rates between a pair of US cities is a great example of market forces (supply and demand) in action. High Demand + Low Supply = High Price and Low Demand + High Supply = Low Price.

5. Chart of the Day V (above) shows that for more than a century from 1800 to 1913 prices in the US were relatively stable based on Federal Reserve data. But since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, its monetary policies increased the CPI by 27.5X, decreasing the value of the US dollar by more than 96% in the process.

6. Chart of the Day VI (above) shows another look at how the value of the US dollar has decreased over time since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

7. Venn Diagram of the Day (above) on the inconsistency among some about their concern for state borders vs. national borders.

8. Chart of the Day VII (above) illustrates the signficant difference between how economists view changes in oil prices over time vs. how politicians and non-economists view oil prices.

9. Chart of the Day VIII (above) displays an important, but frequently overlooked downward trend in US CO2 emissions that started in 2007 and brought emissions to the lowest level last year since 1983. For that dramatic drop in CO2 emissions to a 37-year low, we can thank hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling which facilitated the increasing substitution of clean natural gas for coal as the main fuel source for the nation’s electric power.

10. Chart of the Day IX (above) is also an important, but frequently overlooked energy fact — the US leads the world in the reduction of CO2 over the most recent decade (2010-2020) for which data are available. As above, for that “greening” of America, we can thank the revolutionary technologies of fracking and horizontal drilling, which have accessed oceans of previously inaccessible natural gas beneath the ground in US states like Pennslyvania, Texas, Louisiana and Alaska. Ten years ago coal was the fuel source for 42% of America’s electricity while natural gas provided only 24.7%. Last year, natural gas provided 40.5% of the nation’s electricity compared to coal’s share of less than 20%.


Comments



Giving thanks for the magic of the marketplace, the invisible hand of strangers, and no turkey czars

Blog Post
November 24, 2021

This Thanksgiving post has been an annual tradition at CD and I feature a slightly revised version again this year!

Like in previous years, most of you probably didn’t call your local supermarket ahead of time and order a Thanksgiving turkey this year. Why not? Because you automatically assumed that a turkey would be there when you showed up, and it probably was there when you appeared “unannounced” at your local grocery store and selected your Thanksgiving bird this week. We got two frozen Butterball turkeys on Monday at Costco for $0.99 per pound — what a bargain!

The reason your Thanksgiving turkey, like ours, was waiting for you without an advance order? Because of the economic concepts of “spontaneous order,” “self-interest,” and the “invisible hand” of the free market. Turkeys appeared in your local grocery stores primarily because of the “self-interest” (greed?) of thousands of turkey farmers, truck drivers, and supermarket owners and employees who are complete strangers to you and your family. But all of those strangers throughout the turkey supply chain co-operated on your behalf and were led by the “invisible hand” to make sure your family had a turkey (or two) on the table to celebrate Thanksgiving this Thursday. The “invisible hand” that was responsible for your holiday turkey is just one of millions of everyday examples of the “miracle of the marketplace” where “individually selfish decisions must lead to collectively efficient outcomes,” as economist Steven E. Landsburg observed.

In a 2003 Boston Globe article titled “Giving Thanks for the Invisible Hand,” syndicated columnist Jeff Jacoby offered a wonderful tribute to the miracle of the invisible hand that makes affordable turkeys available so efficiently every year at Thanksgiving through the power of “spontaneous order” and without the need for any central planning or “turkey czars”:

Isn’t there something wondrous — something almost inexplicable — in the way your Thanksgiving weekend is made possible by the skill and labor of vast numbers of total strangers?

To bring that turkey to the dining room table required the efforts of thousands of people — the poultry farmers who raised the birds, of course, but also the feed distributors who supplied their nourishment and the truckers who brought it to the farm, not to mention the architect who designed the hatchery, the workmen who built it, and the technicians who keep it running. The bird had to be slaughtered and de-feathered and inspected and transported and unloaded and wrapped and priced and displayed. The people who accomplished those tasks were supported in turn by armies of other people accomplishing other tasks — from refining the gasoline that fueled the trucks to manufacturing the plastic in which the meat was packaged.

The activities of countless far-flung men and women over the course of many months had to be intricately choreographed and precisely timed, so that when you showed up to buy a fresh Thanksgiving turkey, there would be one — or more likely, a few dozen — waiting. The level of coordination that was required to pull it off is mind-boggling. But what is even more mind-boggling is this: No one coordinated it.

No turkey czar sat in a command post somewhere, consulting a master plan and issuing orders. No one forced people to cooperate for your benefit. And yet they did cooperate. When you arrived at the supermarket, your turkey was there. You didn’t have to do anything but show up to buy it. If that isn’t a miracle, what should we call it?

Adam Smith called it “the invisible hand” — the mysterious power that leads innumerable people, each working for his own gain, to promote ends that benefit many. Out of the seeming chaos of millions of uncoordinated private transactions emerges the spontaneous order of the market. Free human beings freely interact, and the result is an array of goods and services more immense than the human mind can comprehend. No dictator, no bureaucracy, no supercomputer plans it in advance. Indeed, the more an economy is planned, the more it is plagued by shortages, dislocation, and failure.

It is commonplace to speak of seeing God’s signature in the intricacy of a spider’s web or the animation of a beehive. But they pale in comparison to the kaleidoscopic energy and productivity of the free market. If it is a blessing from Heaven when seeds are transformed into grain, how much more of a blessing is it when our private, voluntary exchanges are transformed – without our ever intending it – into prosperity, innovation, and growth?

Bottom Line: As you celebrate Thanksgiving tomorrow with your family and friends, remember to express some thanks and gratitude to the thousands of “invisible” strangers who won’t be there in person, but who were led by the “invisible hand” of the market over the last several months to become your “Thanksgiving benefactors” and make sure your affordable holiday feast was possible once again.

I’ll end the post with a great, related quote from President Ronald Reagan, who said in 1981:

The societies that have achieved the most spectacular, broad-based progress are neither the most tightly controlled, nor the biggest in size, nor the wealthiest in natural resources. No, what unites them all is their willingness to believe in the magic of the marketplace.

On Thanksgiving Day, we should all remember to be thankful for the “miracle and magic of the marketplace” and the “blessings of spontaneous order and the invisible hand” that are directly responsible for the economic prosperity and abundance that we enjoy not just on a single holiday once a year, but every day of the year living in a market economy.

Related: See recent CD post “Despite concerns about inflation, the real cost (and ‘time cost’) of Thanksgiving dinner this year is among the most affordable in history.” We’ve also heard numerous media reports recently about the “most expensive Thanksgiving dinner in history,” which are inaccurate misrepresentations of economic reality. Of course, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner is almost always higher every year measured in nominal (current) dollars. But to correctly measure the real cost of a turkey dinner over time is to adjust for inflation and compare the annual cost in constant, inflation adjusted dollars. Or even better, we should compute the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner measured in the amount of time (in hours) the average American needs to work to earn enough income to pay for the menu items in a traditional turkey dinner. By either measure, the cost of a Thanksgiving this year is among the most affordable in US history.

Bon appetit!

.


Comments



Despite concerns about inflation, the real cost (and ‘time cost’) of Thanksgiving dinner this year is among the most affordable in history

Blog Post
November 18, 2021

From today’s annual report and press release from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) on the cost of a classic holiday meal “Survey Shows Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Up 14%“:

Enjoying Thanksgiving dinner with family and friends is a priority for many Americans, but paying attention to how the meal will impact the budget is also important. Farm Bureau’s 36th annual survey indicates the average cost of this year’s classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 is $53.31 or less than $6.00 per person. This is a $6.41 or 14% increase from last year’s average of $46.90.

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – costs more than last year, at $23.99 for a 16-pound bird. That’s roughly $1.50 per pound, up 24% from last year, but there are several mitigating factors.

Several factors contributed to the increase in average cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner,” said AFBF Senior Economist Veronica Nigh. “These include dramatic disruptions to the U.S. economy and supply chains over the last 20 months; inflationary pressure throughout the economy; difficulty in predicting demand during the COVID-19 pandemic and high global demand for food, particularly meat,” she explained. Further, “The trend of consumers cooking and eating at home more often due to the pandemic led to increased supermarket demand and higher retail food prices in 2020 and 2021, compared to pre-pandemic prices in 2019.”

“Taking turkey out of the basket of foods reveals a 6.6% price increase compared to last year, which tracks closely with the Consumer Price Index for food and general inflation across the economy,” said Nigh.

Some comments:

1. Compared to $46.90 last year, the cost for a classic Thanksgiving Day dinner for 10 people this year is 13.7% higher at $53.31 (see blue line in top chart). Going back to 1986 when the AFBF annual survey started, the 13.7% increase in cost this year was the second-highest annual jump since a 16.8% increase in 1990. There were also double-digit increases of 13.2% in 2011 and 10.9% in 2007.

2. The average price for a 16-pound turkey this year ($23.99) is 23.7% (and $4.60) higher than last year’s price of $19.39, and the prices of 10 other food items on the menu are slightly higher than last year. The only item of the 12 products on the AFBF’s Thanksgiving menu that decreased in price since last year is cubed stuffing, which is 18.5% cheaper than last year.

3. Adjusted for inflation in 2021 dollars, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner this year ($53.31) is only 7% more expensive than last year at $49.83, compared to the much larger 13.7% increase in current (nominal) dollars (see the brown line in the top chart). The significant difference in percent increases between nominal and real prices is because CPI inflation has gone up by 6.2% over the last year. In real, inflation-adjusted dollars the only other larger increases than 7% since 1986 than 7% were in 2011 (9.3%) and 1990 (9.8%), so this year’s increase is the third-largest in the history of the AFBF survey. But the real, inflation-adjusted cost of a Thanksgiving dinner this year at $53.31 is lower than any of the 12 years between 2007 and 2018, and also more affordable than any of the five years from 1986 to 1990 and seven of the nine years from 1995-2003.

4. Measured in the amount of time worked at the average hourly wage for all private production workers of $26.26 in October of this year (a year-over-year wage increase of 5.76%), the “time cost” of this year’s classic turkey dinner is only 2.03 hours, up from 1.89 hours last year. Importantly, even though the “time cost” is higher this year than 2020, it’s the second-lowest cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner in the 36-year history of the annual AFBF report (see bottom chart above).

Compared to 1986 when the average American would have worked 3.21 hours to earn the income necessary to purchase the turkey dinner for 10, the “time cost” for a worker today at roughly only two hours is 37% lower. Another way to think about is that if the “time cost” of 3.21 hours hadn’t changed over the last 36 years, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner this year would have been $84.29 instead of only $53.31.

Bottom Line: The fact that a family in America can celebrate Thanksgiving with a classic turkey feast for ten people for just over $5 per person and at a “time cost” of only two hours of work at the average hourly wage for one person means that we really have a lot to be thankful for on Thanksgiving: an abundance of cheap, affordable food despite the challenges of the pandemic, supply chain issues, and rising energy prices. The average American earns enough money by the time of his or her morning coffee break working on just one day to be able to afford the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal for ten. Compared to 1986, the inflation-adjusted cost of a turkey dinner today is 26% cheaper, and 37% cheaper measured in “time cost” for the average worker. Despite all of the hand-wringing and alarm bells about inflation, this year’s Thanksgiving dinner in America is among the most affordable of the past 36 years relative to our income and relative to the cost of in past years.

Happy Thanksgiving and bon appetit!


Comments



32 years ago today the Berlin Wall fell, two years after Reagan famously said ‘Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this Wall’

Blog Post
November 09, 2021

Perhaps President Ronald Reagan’s most famous and influential speech was his “Berlin Wall speech” at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany on June 12, 1987. It was in this speech (at about 11:45 in the video above) that Reagan made his famous and history-changing demand “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” That statement and speech helped changed the course of history, and there’s even an entire Wikipedia entry for “Tear down this wall” (in addition to an extensive page for Berlin Wall). According to the Wikipedia entry, “The Berlin Wall speech was also a source of considerable controversy within the Reagan administration itself, with several senior staffers and aides advising against the phrase, saying anything that might cause further East-West tensions or potential embarrassment to Gorbachev, with whom President Reagan had built a good relationship, should be omitted. American officials in West Germany and presidential speechwriters, including Peter Robinson, thought otherwise.” Here’s the full passage of what preceded Reagan’s famous line:

We welcome change and openness; for we believe that freedom and security go together, that the advance of human liberty can only strengthen the cause of world peace. There is one sign the Soviets can make that would be unmistakable, that would advance dramatically the cause of freedom and peace. General Secretary Gorbachev, if you seek peace, if you seek prosperity for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if you seek liberalization, come here to this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this Wall!

A little more than two years after Reagan’s Berlin Wall speech, the Berlin wall did fall unexpectedly on November 9, 1989 in what Peter Jennings in this ABC News report describes as “perhaps the most important announcement made in Central Europe since the end of World War II, certainly since the wall went up in 1961.”


Comments



Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley

Blog Post
November 03, 2021

While visiting D.C. this week for the AEI Annual Dinner, I was able to attend former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and former Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley’s 2021 Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture today at the Heritage Foundation (watch the video above).

The Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture honors the principles, ideals, vision, and legacy of Lady Thatcher. Previous lecturers have included former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky, U.S. officials Senator Ted Cruz and Ambassador John Bolton, foreign statesmen including former Australian Prime Minister John Howard and British Member of Parliament Liam Fox, and conservative authors and commentators Charles Krauthammer and Victor Davis Hanson.

In her talk and in the spirit of the Iron Lady, Nikki Haley presented a very compelling case for the significant life-affirming benefits of free-market capitalism that promote, affirm, and nurture the human spirit compared to the destructive and detrimental burdens of socialism that destroy and crush the human spirit. Watch above, highly recommended (Ambassador Haley’s lecture starts at about 6:38).


Comments



2021 Update: “For every 100 girls…..” Part III

Blog Post
November 02, 2021

Here’s Part III of my 2021 update “For every 100 girls….”, see Part I here and Part II here. The entire 70-item list including Parts I, II, and III is available here.

5. Higher Education and Labor Market (9)

6. Crime, Incarceration, Alcohol and Drugs, Homelessness and Wounded Military (16)

See the chart above that includes some of the items above, and items that appear in Part I and Part II.


Comments



2021 Update: “For every 100 girls…..” Part II

Blog Post
November 02, 2021

Here’s Part II of my 2021 update “For every 100 girls….”, see Part I here and Part III here. The full 70-item list with all three parts is available here.

3. K-12 Education (13)

  • For every 100 girls who repeat kindergarten 145 boys repeat kindergarten.
    Source: National Center for Education Statistics
  • For every 100 girls whose entry into kindergarten is delayed 139 boys are delayed.
    Source: National Center for Education Statistics
  • For every 100 girls suspended from public schools in grades 6-12, 195 boys are suspended.
    Source: National Center for Education Statistics
  • For every 100 girls expelled from public schools in grades 6-12, 223 boys are expelled.
    Source: National Center for Education Statistics 
  • For every 100 high school girls who took the SAT test in 2021, 94 boys took the test.
    Source: College Board (2021)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls in the top 10% of their class, there are 79 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls with an A or A+ grade point average, there are 65 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls who take AP/Honors courses in math there are 82 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls who take AP/Honors courses in Natural Sciences there are 79 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls who take AP/Honors courses in Foreign/Classical Languages there are 64 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls who take AP/Honors courses in Art/Music there are 54 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 college-bound high school senior girls who take AP/Honors courses in English/Language Arts there are 64 boys.
    Source: College Board (2016)
  • For every 100 high school girls who took an AP course in 2020, there were 76 boys.
    Source: College Board (2020)

4. Special Education (8)

See the chart above that includes some of the items above, and also items that appear in Part I and Part III.


Comments



2021 Update: “For every 100 girls…..” Part I

Blog Post
November 01, 2021

In 2011, Thomas G. Mortenson, senior scholar at the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education in Washington, D.C. and independent higher education policy analyst, put together and published the 100+ item list “For Every 100 Girls….” on Education Week. In an email, Tom explained to me that “At the time I initially wrote it I was hearing and reading that boys were no different than girls, and the data I was looking at said something very different. Our differences are important, to both genders, and should be respected. Education has a long way to go to recognize, appreciate, and address these differences through educational opportunities tailored to these differences.”

With Tom’s permission, I’ve updated about half of the items on the original list with the most recent data available and added some new items that demonstrate empirically the many significant differences between boys (men) and girls (women) on many measures of health outcomes, educational outcomes, educational and learning disabilities, suicide and homicide rates, incarceration rates, alcohol and drug abuse, behavior problems leading to suspension or expulsion in school, homelessness, job deaths, military deaths, crime victimhood, etc. Part I appears below and Part II appears here and Part III here. The full 70-item list with all three parts is available here.

1. Birth and Death (20)  

  • For every 100 girl babies who die in the first 27 days of life 127.5 boy babies die.
  • For every 100 girl babies who die after the first 27 days but in the first year of life 130 boy babies die.
  • For every 100 infant girls who die under one year old, 128 infant boys die.
  • For every 100 girls ages 1 to 4 years who die 141 boys die.
  • For every 100 girls ages 5 to 14 years who die 130 boys die.
  • For every 100 girls and women ages 15 to 24 years who die 270 boys and men die.
  • For every 100 women ages 25 to 34 who die 227 men die.
  • For every 100 women ages 35 to 44 who die 177 men die. 

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics

2. Educational Attainment of Young Adults (4)

  • For every 100 women ages 25 to 29 years who have an associate’s degree, there are 89 men.
  • For every 100 women ages 25 to 29 years who have a bachelor’s degree, there are 88 men.
  • For every 100 women ages 25 to 29 years who have a master’s degree, there are 61 men.
  • For every 100 women ages 25 to 29 years who have a first professional or doctor’s degree there are 80 men.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2020)

MP: For those in the social constructionist movement who argue that the differences between men and women are entirely social conventions, how can these significant differences in gender be explained?

See chart above that includes some of the items above, and items that will appear in Part II and Part III.


Comments



Details in BLS report suggest that the ‘gender earnings gap’ can be explained by age, marital status, children, hours worked, etc.

Blog Post
October 22, 2021

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases an annual report every year on the “Highlights of Women’s Earnings.” Since the BLS report actually analyzes both men’s and women’s earnings, one might ask why the report isn’t simply titled more accurately “Highlights of Earnings in America”? Here’s the opening paragraph from the most recent BLS report “Highlights of Women’s Earnings in 2020” that was released last month (September 2021):

In 2020, women who were full-time wage and salary workers had median usual weekly earnings that were 82.3 percent of those of male full-time wage and salary workers. In 1979, the first year for which comparable earnings data are available, women’s earnings were 62 percent of men’s. Most of the growth in women’s earnings relative to men’s occurred in the 1980s (when the women’s-to-men’s ratio went from 64 percent to 70 percent) and in the 1990s (when the ratio went from 72 percent to 77 percent). Since 2004, the women’s-to-men’s earnings ratio has remained in the 80 to 83 percent range.

How do we explain the fact that women working full-time last year earned 82.3 cents for every dollar men earned according to the BLS? Here’s how the National Committee on Pay Equity (NCPE) explains it:

The wage gap exists, in part, because many women and people of color are still segregated into a few low-paying occupations. Part of the wage gap results from differences in education, experience, or time in the workforce. But a significant portion cannot be explained by any of those factors; it is attributable to discrimination. In other words, certain jobs pay less because they are held by women and people of color.

Let’s investigate the claim that the gender pay gap is a result of discrimination by looking at some of the data on wages and hours worked by gender and by marital status and age in the BLS report for 2020:

1. Among full-time workers (those working 35 hours or more per week), men were more likely than women to work a greater number of hours (see Table 5).

a. For example, 19.6% of men working full-time worked 41 or more hours per week in 2020, compared to only 10.2% of women who worked those hours, meaning that men working full-time last year were nearly twice as likely as women to work 41 hours per work or more. 

b. Further, men working full-time were also 2.3 times more likely than women to work 60+ hour weeks: 4.3% of men worked 60 hours per week or more in 2020 compared to only 1.9% of women who worked those hours.

c. Also, women working full-time were more than twice as likely as men to work shorter workweeks of 35 to 39 hours per week: 7.7% of full-time women worked those hours in 2020, compared to only 3.6% of men who did so.

What’s especially interesting is that men working 35-39 hours per week last year earned only 92.4% of what women earned working those same hours ($600 median weekly earnings for men vs. $649 for women), i.e., there was a 7.6% gender earnings gap in favor of female workers for that cohort. Using the standard political and gender rhetoric of groups like the National Committee on Pay Equity, couldn’t that earnings premium for women be mostly explained by gender discrimination against men in the labor market for employees working 35-39 hours per week? That is, to be consistent shouldn’t the claim here be that “certain jobs pay less because they are held by men”?

2. Another way to adjust for the significant gender difference in average hours worked is to compare the “median hourly earnings of wage and salary workers paid hourly rates” instead of the “median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers.” In 2020, the median hourly earnings of women ($15.22) were 85.7% of the median hourly earnings of men ($17.75), representing a gender hourly earnings gap of 14.3%. Therefore, nearly 20% (3.4 percentage points) of the 17.7% gender weekly earnings gap disappears just by comparing median hourly earnings instead of median weekly earnings.  

3. Although not reported by the BLS, I can estimate using its data that the average workweek for full-time workers last year was 41.3 hours for women and 42.8 hours for men. Therefore, the average man employed full-time worked 1.50 more hours per week in 2020 compared to the average woman, which totals to an average of an additional 75 male work hours per year compared to the average full-time female worker.

Comment: Because men work more hours on average than women, some of the raw earnings gap naturally disappears just by simply controlling for the number of hours worked per week, an important factor not even mentioned by groups like the National Committee on Pay Equity. For example, women earned 82.3% of median male earnings for all workers working 35 hours per week or more in 2020, for a raw, unadjusted pay gap of 17.7% for all full-time workers. But for those workers with a 40-hour workweek (more than three-quarters of all full-time female workers), women earned 87.4% of median male earnings, for a smaller pay gap of only 12.6% (see chart and Table 1). Therefore, once we control only for one variable – hours worked – and compare men and women both working 40-hours per week in 2020, almost one-third (5.1 percentage points) of the raw 17.7% pay gap reported by the BLS for full-time workers disappears.

4. The BLS also reports in Table 1 that for young workers ages 16-24 years, women earned 94.7% of the median earnings of their male counterparts working full-time reflecting a 5.3% gender earnings gap for that age cohort last year. Once again, controlling for just a single important variable – age – we find that more than two-thirds (12.4 percentage points) of the overall 17.7% unadjusted raw earnings gap for all workers disappears for young workers.

5. The BLS reports that for full-time single workers who have never married, women earned 94.0% of men’s earnings in 2020, which is a gender earnings gap of only 6% (see Table 1 and chart above), compared to an overall unadjusted pay gap of 17.7% for all workers in that group. When controlling for marital status and comparing the earnings of unmarried men and unmarried women, two-thirds (11.7 percentage points) of the raw 17.7% earnings gap is explained by just one variable (among many): marital status.

6. In Table 7, the BLS reports that for full-time single workers with no children under 18 years old at home (includes never married, divorced, separated, and widowed), women’s median weekly earnings of $819 were 93.7% of the weekly earnings of $874 for their male counterparts in that cohort (see chart above). For this group, once you control for marital status and children at home, we can explain nearly two-thirds (11.4 percentage points) of the unadjusted 17.7% gender earnings gap.

7. From Table 1 in the BLS report, we find that for married workers with a spouse present, women working full-time earned only 78.5% of what married men with a spouse present earned working full-time in 2020 (see chart). In contrast, female workers who have never been married earned only 6% less on average than their male counterparts, which is only one-third of the 17.7% unadjusted gender earnings gap. Therefore, BLS data show that marriage has a significant and negative effect on women’s earnings relative to men’s, but we can realistically assume that marriage is a voluntary lifestyle choice, and it’s that personal decision, not necessarily labor market discrimination, that contributes to at least some of the gender earnings gap for married full-time workers with a spouse present.

8. Also from Table 7, married women (with spouse present) working full-time with children under 18 years at home earned 78.5% of what married men (spouse present) earned working full-time with children under 18 years (see chart). Once again, we find that marriage and motherhood have a significantly negative effect on women’s earnings; but those lower earnings don’t necessarily result from labor market discrimination, they more likely result from personal family choices about careers, family-friendly and flexible workplaces, commute time, child care, and the number of hours worked.

Bottom Line: When the BLS reports that women working full-time in 2020 earned 82.3% of what men earned working full-time, that is very much different from saying that women earned 82.3% of what men earned for doing exactly the same work while working the exact same number of hours in the same occupation, with exactly the same educational background and exactly the same years of continuous, uninterrupted work experience, and with exactly the same marital and family (e.g., number of children) status. As shown above, once we start controlling individually for the many relevant factors that affect earnings, e.g., hours worked, age, marital status, and having children, most of the raw earnings differential disappears. In a more comprehensive study that controlled for all of the relevant variables simultaneously, we would likely find that those variables would account for nearly 100% of the unadjusted, raw earnings differential of 17.7% for women’s earnings compared to men as reported by the BLS. Discrimination, to the extent that it does exist, would likely account for a very small portion of the raw 17.7% gender earnings gap.

For example, a comprehensive 2009 study from the Department of Labor (“An Analysis of Reasons for the Disparity in Wages Between Men and Women”) came to the following conclusion (emphasis added):

This study leads to the unambiguous conclusion that the differences in the compensation of men and women are the result of a multitude of factors and that the raw wage gap should not be used as the basis to justify corrective action. Indeed, there may be nothing to correct. The differences in raw wages may be almost entirely the result of the individual choices being made by both male and female workers.

Final thought: Consider these definitions:

Wage: A payment of money for labor or services usually according to contract and paid on an hourly, daily, or piecework basis.

Earnings: Money obtained in return for labor or services.

Using the definition of “wage” above, the claim of a “gender wage gap” implies for many (like the NCPE) that women are paid lower hourly or daily wages than men when they are working side-by-side for the same company doing the exact same job with the same educational and work backgrounds.

Language and words are important. And that’s why I think it’s important and more accurate to refer to a “gender earnings gap” rather than a “gender pay gap” or “gender wage gap.” Note that the NCPE uses the terms “gender wage gap” and “wage gap” 12 times on just the Q&A page of its website and more than 20 times on its main website. The Department of Labor study also used the term “raw wage gap.” The underlying assumption with that language (“gender wage gap”) is that there is one hourly (or weekly or monthly) wage paid to men and a lower hourly (or weekly or monthly) wage paid to women working side-by-side their male counterparts doing the exact same job when both have the exact same educational and work backgrounds, etc.

Switching to using the term “gender earnings gap” broadens the concept of earnings differentials by gender, and more accurately allows for the reality that women are usually making the same hourly (or weekly) wage as men doing the exact same job. But men often “earn” more on average than women because men are working longer hours on average, performing different jobs than women, working in jobs that are physically more rigorous (construction), working in jobs that are more dangerous (logging) and in more hostile work environments (oil rigs workers), involve longer commute times and may be less flexible and less family friendly. So I think it’s time to completely scrap the term “gender wage gap” and replace it with the more accurate “gender earnings gap.” Unfortunately, a Google search reveals that there are 30 times more results for the term “gender wage gap” (more than 2 million results) than for “gender earnings gap” (62,000).

 


Comments



1 2 3 1,209