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50 years of failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic predictions; the so-called ‘experts’ are 0-50

Carpe Diem

This week Myron Ebell (director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute) and Steven J. Milloy published a post on the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) blog titled “Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions:”

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true. What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and science.

More than merely spotlighting the failed predictions, this collection shows that the makers of failed apocalyptic predictions often are individuals holding respected positions in government and science. While such predictions have been and continue to be enthusiastically reported by a media eager for sensational headlines, the failures are typically not revisited.

The first 27 failed alarmist predictions below are from the CEI post (many were previously collected and posted by Tony Heller on RealClimateScience, see Tony’s video below) and the additional 14 doomsday predictions the climate alarmists got wrong were added by John Nolte in a Breitbart post titled “Climate ‘Experts’ are 0-41 with Their Doomsday Predictions“:

For more than 50 years Climate Alarmists in the scientific community and environmental movement have not gotten even one prediction correct, but they do have a perfect record of getting 41 predictions wrong. In other words, on at least 41 occasions, these so-called experts have predicted some terrible environmental catastrophe was imminent … and it never happened. And not once — not even once! — have these alarmists had one of their predictions come true.

Think about that… the so-called experts are 0-41 with their predictions, but those of us who are skeptical of “expert” prediction number 42, the one that says that if we don’t immediately convert to socialism and allow Alexandria Ocasio-Crazy to control and organize our lives, the planet will become uninhabitable. Why would any sane person listen to someone with a 0-41 record? Why would we completely restructure our economy and sacrifice our personal freedom for “experts” who are 0-41, who have never once gotten it right? And if that’s not crazy enough, the latest ploy is to trot out a 16-year-old girl to spread prediction number 42, because it is so much more credible that way.

Below are the 41 failed doomsday, eco-pocalyptic predictions (with links):

1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link)
27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
39. 1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
41. 1970s: Killer Bees!

Update: I’ve added 9 additional failed predictions (via Real Climate Science) below to make it an even 50 for the number of failed eco-pocalyptic doomsday predictions over the last 50 years.

42. 1975: The Cooling World and a Drastic Decline in Food Production
43. 1969: Worldwide Plague, Overwhelming Pollution, Ecological Catastrophe, Virtual Collapse of UK by End of 20th Century
44. 1972: Pending Depletion and Shortages of Gold, Tin, Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Aluminum
45. 1970: Oceans Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, Food Rationing by 1980
46. 1988: World’s Leading Climate Expert Predicts Lower Manhattan Underwater by 2018
47. 2005: Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020
48. 2000: Snowfalls Are Now a Thing of the Past
49.1989: UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000 From Global Warming
50. 2011: Washington Post Predicted Cherry Blossoms Blooming in Winter

But somehow this time will be different, and the ‘experts’ and 16-year olds of today will suddenly be correct in their new predictions of eco-doom and eco-disaster? Not.

Related: Bonus video below from Tony Heller titled “My Gift To Climate Alarmists,” which he describes as “my most concise exposé of climate fraud.”

Discussion (7 comments)

  1. Not Sure says:

    Are the earlier comments gone?

  2. Mr. Econotarian says:

    It is unlikely that upper-middle class people in the US (who are willing to evacuate when hurricanes hit the coast) are actually going to be killed by global warming. Any actual risks to life will be concentrated in poor countries. Of course, if they became less poor through improvement in economic freedom, they would be better able to survive natural disasters of both nominal climate and anthropogenically modified climate.

    But that said, ocean surface temperatures have risen each decade by 0.13°F on average since 1900. Also ocean acidification is occurring: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/file/Hawaii+Carbon+Dioxide+Time-Series

    The truth is that we really do have the technology for dramatically reduced GHG emissions, but it will be tougher to implement these in poor & unstable countries.

    The great risk is that socialism becomes politically linked to global warming mitigation, the same way that xenophobia & racism has become unfortunately politically linked to classical liberalism.

    As classical liberals, we should be taking the risk of global warming seriously (as seriously as the scientific consensus points out, which is slightly less serious than your average protester) , and pointing out how classical liberalism can actually help to reduce human risks and enable technological solutions to the environmental problem.

    A form of “cleaned by capitalism”, although we have to be honest that some smart regulation may be required to deal with externalities of non-point pollution.

  3. Ron H. says:

    Mr.

    Also ocean acidification is occurring: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/file/Hawaii+Carbon+Dioxide+Time-Series

    Is that a problem? From your reference it appears that average PH at that location over the ~30 year period has changed about the same amount as the annual fluctuations in PH.

    Here’s an explanation of ocean acidification I’ve found helpful: http://joannenova.com.au/2011/11/the-chemistry-of-ocean-ph-and-acidification/

  4. Norman says:

    I direct everyone’s attention to: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
    (Part of the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds Series)
    by Charles Mackay

    Unbridled truth of this is the outpouring of children into the streets protesting Global Warming. But they have no facts only following the Pied Piper(s) like sheep. I don’t think the world has ever seen anything like this.

  5. vikingvista says:

    Mr. Econotarian,

    But socialism and global warming mitigation ARE strongly linked (for secondary gains of increasing forced wealth redistribution, authoritarian central planning, and demonstrating the apocalyptic dangers of markets and man’s uncorrected nature), while classical liberals have a long tradition of supporting liberal migration.

    Antisocialists do have a habit of selective skepticism when it comes to the science of environmental issues, but that is a reaction to the hyperbole of political environmental activists and the unbalanced self-serving costs they are so eager to impose.

  6. Garrett J Sattler says:

    They’ll die of pumpkin spice before the climate takes em out.

  7. Nell Molnar says:

    What about the Murray river? Tim watchyamacallit said the Murray river would dry up forever!

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