So will the US economy speed up this year or not?

McKinsey offers a nice compilation of global growth prediction (see above chart) and offers this consensus on the US economy:

The US economy has momentum from stronger-than-expected growth at the end of 2014. Consumer sentiment and trade activity increased, the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in January, and financial markets benefited from upbeat investor sentiment. However, retail sales dipped in December, and real wages continued to stagnate. The US economy has overcome a number of hurdles to see its way clear to a deeper and stronger recovery: the range of growth forecasts exceeds 3 percent for 2015

Again, maybe this will be the Year of Acceleration to 3%+ growth, but it’s off to a bad start — at least as measured by GDP. Here is JPMorgan last Friday:

In light of the data we’ve received this week – January reports for real consumer spending, construction spending, and net exports that varied from disappointing to downright weak, as well as a softer February print for car sales –– we are marking down our tracking for annualized real GDP growth in Q1 from 2.5% to 2.0%. Even after this revision risks are more skewed to the downside than upside.

Also note this from the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP tracker:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 6, unchanged from its March 2 reading. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.5 percentage point to -0.8 percentage point following this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was offset by increases in the nowcasts of equipment investment and inventory investment.

And yet those job creation numbers in February were pretty strong. Perhaps 2015 will mirror 2014, slow start and then a quickening pace. (Maybe the job numbers partially reflect business expectations for faster growth.) JPMorgan, for once, thinks this may be the case.