Event
Is Iran the new North Korea? Lessons from the Agreed Framework
Wednesday, April 1, 2015 | 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM ET
AEI, Twelfth Floor
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Event Summary
America’s drawn-out nuclear negotiations with North Korea (the DPRK) ended with the 1994 Agreed Framework. While the Agreed Framework may have slowed the DPRK’s nuclear program, it did not stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear power. Currently, similar negotiations are underway between America, its allies, and Iran. On Wednesday, AEI hosted a panel to discuss the potential outcomes of nuclear negotiations with Iran in light of America’s history of nonproliferation talks with North Korea.
AEI’s Michael Rubin criticized the US State Department, claiming it has not learned from past mistakes, and declared that the nuclear agreement with North Korea was a failure that should be condemned rather than emulated. George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explained that a potential agreement with Iran should have two levels, one that constrains nuclear capabilities and one that shapes motivations and nuclear intentions.
AEI’s John Bolton argued that economic sanctions against Iran would not work better than negotiations led by the Obama administration. According to Ambassador Bolton, if negotiations with Iran reflect past negotiations with North Korea, Iran is likely to have sanctions lifted and nuclear capabilities bolstered.
–Allyson LaRose
Event Description
America has engaged in off-and-on nuclear negotiations with North Korea for more than 20 years. The talks, resulting in the 1994 Agreed Framework, may have slowed Pyongyang’s weapons program, but they have not prevented North Korea from testing nuclear weapons or declaring itself a nuclear power. Now, Washington is engaged in negotiations with another would-be nuclear power: Iran.
What are the similarities and differences between the deal America and its allies are trying to craft with Tehran and past deals Washington attempted to fashion with Pyongyang? Must US nonproliferation negotiations with rogue states end in failure, or is there an approach that can achieve satisfactory outcomes for America and the international community?
Please join us at AEI for a panel discussion on the potential outcomes of the nuclear negotiations with Iran and how they will impact American and international security.
Breakfast will be served.
Agenda
8:45 AM
Registration
9:00 AM
Panelists:
John Bolton, AEI
George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Michael Rubin, AEI
Moderator:
Nicholas Eberstadt, AEI
9:45 AM
Q&A
10:00 AM
Adjournment
Contact Information
For more information, please contact Alex Coblin at [email protected], 202.419.5215.
AEI Participant(s)
John R. Bolton, a diplomat and a lawyer, has spent many years in public service. From August 2005 to December 2006, he served as the US permanent representative to the United Nations. During his tenure at the United Nations, Ambassador Bolton was a tenacious and outspoken advocate of US efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, to push Syria out of Lebanon, and to bring African peacekeepers into shaky Somalia. He worked vigorously against North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. From 2001 to 2005, he worked under the secretary of state for arms control and international security. At AEI, Ambassador Bolton’s area of research is US foreign and national security policy.
Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist and demographer by training, holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at AEI. He is also a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research, a member of the visiting committee at the Harvard School of Public Health, and a member of the Global Leadership Council at the World Economic Forum. Eberstadt researches and writes extensively on economic development, foreign aid, global health, demographics, and poverty. He is the author of numerous monographs and articles on North and South Korea, East Asia, and the countries of the former Soviet Union. He is the author of “A Nation of Takers: America’s Entitlement Epidemic” (Templeton, 2012) and the AEI monograph “The Great Society at Fifty: The Triumph and The Tragedy.”
George Perkovich is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation. Perkovich is author of the award-winning book “India’s Nuclear Bomb” (University of California Press, 2001) and coauthor of the Adelphi paper “Abolishing Nuclear Weapons,” the basis of the book “Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate” (Carnegie Endowment, 2009), which includes 17 critiques by 13 eminent international commentators. He served as a speechwriter and foreign policy adviser to former Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) from 1989 to 1990. Perkovich is an adviser to the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations’ task force on US nuclear policy.
Michael Rubin is a former Pentagon official whose major research area is the Middle East, with a special focus on Iran, Turkey, Arab politics, Afghanistan, and diplomacy. Rubin regularly instructs senior military officers deploying to the Middle East on regional politics and teaches classes on Iran, terrorism, and Arab politics on US aircraft carriers. Rubin has lived in Iran, Yemen, both pre- and post-war Iraq, and spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. His newest book is “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes,” (Encounter, 2014).
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