Same script, different city: Al Shabaab’s hold in Somalia
Al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s Somalia-based affiliate, lost its largest remaining stronghold this weekend to pro-Somalia troops. That stronghold, a port-city called Barawe, was a hub for al Shabaab. The city, a straight shot south of the capital Mogadishu (about 135 miles), hosted al Shabaab leadership and major training camps, served as part of the supply route to the Somali capital and provided al Shabaab with revenue through charcoal trade. But the loss of Barawe is not a death-blow to the al Qaeda affiliate.
First, the pro-Somalia troops that rolled into Barawe did not militarily defeat al Shabaab. Al Shabaab vacated the city ahead of the better-equipped forces. We saw the same script two years ago when al Shabaab lost another key city, Kismayo, farther south on the Somali coast. Barawe residents report that al Shabaab leaders issued a warning against cooperating with the Somali government before they left, a sign that there are plans to continue operating there.
Second, al Shabaab already appears to have ceded control of most of the populated areas in south-central Somalia and will probably adapt to existing without its Barawe stronghold. Pro-Somalia troops had pushed al Shabaab out of Baidoa (a former capital of Somalia) and many of the other cities along key trade and transit routes over the past three years, and yet the al Qaeda affiliate still managed to rebound. Militants today carry out disruptive attacks along those routes, ambushing Somali and African Union peacekeepers’ convoys.
Third, the late al Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane drove efforts to re-build al Qaeda’s East African franchise, moving the group away from its roots as a Somali insurgency. While al Shabaab lost significant ground over the past three years, it has expanded its area of operations throughout East Africa and seems more focused on plotting terrorist attacks rather than holding territory.
The recent rapid pace of strikes against al Shabaab is reason for optimism in Somalia. It appears that the Somali government and its partners are attempting to capitalize on the momentum gained from Godane’s death last month. Less noticed was a military offensive last week against al Shabaab’s stronghold near the northern Somali coast, which served as a refuge for militants fleeing southern offensives and as a link to Yemen’s arms market. Continued gains and consolidation of the Mogadishu government’s control will keep the tide moving against al Shabaab.
The challenge will be ensuring that al Shabaab doesn’t resurge. Al Shabaab still operates in Somalia’s hinterlands, and should inter-clan conflict over territorial control or political power paralyze or distract from the Somali government’s and its partners’ efforts against the group, al Shabaab is positioned to return. Answers to Somalia’s long-standing political questions such as the division of power among the clans, and not just security, will help to define whether the loss of Barawe is a lasting blow and not just another setback for al Shabaab.
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