AQAP attacks local targets in Yemen, threatening US counterterrorism policy

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), carried out two coordinated suicide bombings on Thursday, Yemen’s deadliest day in recent months. An AQAP attack killed upwards of 40 people in the capital, Sana’a, when a suicide bomber detonated an explosive vest at an al Houthi rally. Simultaneously, AQAP attacked a military checkpoint 330 miles away in Hadramawt, using a suicide car bomber to kill at least 19 Yemeni soldiers. Although AQAP’s targets were local, the attacks could throw America’s counterterrorism policy there into crisis. Here’s why:

• The Yemeni government is America’s counterterrorism partner against AQAP. The al Houthis, who received Iranian support, have paralyzed the Yemeni government since seizing power on September 21. They may like nothing more than to destroy AQAP, but they also don’t like US involvement in Yemen. Some al Houthis have gone so far as to make the absurd claim the United States and AQAP are working together. Although preposterous, especially since AQAP continues to pursue attacks on the US homeland, rumor oftentimes trumps fact in Yemen. The strong anti-American sentiment coupled with the new al Houthi veto in the government raises the question of what the “Yemen model” would look like without a good partner on the ground.
• AQAP displays more sophistication and capacity today than it did last year. It takes a considerable amount of coordination and resources to stage two suicide attacks on the same day, 330 miles apart. Yesterday, AQAP used a suicide car bomb to hit Yemeni Special Forces in al Bayda, 250 or so miles from both Sana’a and Hadramawt. It’s not just the number of car bombs that seems to be on the rise, but also the sophistication of attacks. At the end of August, AQAP fielded four car bombs in two days across south Yemen, only two of which Yemeni security forces found before they exploded. AQAP is clearly not near defeat.
• Growing sectarianism in Yemen only adds to the myriad of other problems. The Yemeni government is already juggling multiple internal conflicts. AQAP attacks on the al Houthis are not new, but have been increasing in frequency and intensity over the past few weeks. Thursday’s bombing in Sana’a’s Tahrir Square is on a grander scale than anything seen before. AQAP frames its fight against the al Houthis as one of Sunnis against apostates. The rising regional sectarianism will likely only feed these sentiments in Yemen, where, until recently, religion played little role in politics. Iran may exploit the al Houthis’ new position in Yemen’s government as a Shi’a victory on the back doorstep of rival Saudi Arabia.

What appear to be local developments in Yemen are actually of great importance to the US. Lack of attention to events in places like Iraq allowed the Islamic State to resurge. Yemen is not Iraq, but the rapid deterioration of conditions there jeopardizes America’s counterterrorism partnership with Sana’a. Without a partner on the ground, the US can’t defeat AQAP, giving the group the victory it needs to make a comeback.

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