Will Erdogan Survive His Struggle with Turkey’s Military?

Much of the reporting about Turkey in the West focuses on either President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to draft a new constitution or the aftermath of the abortive July 15 coup. But, behind-the-scenes, there is a story with ramifications as great: the competition for control of the military between followers of Erdogan on one hand and those of ultra-nationalist and former Maoist political leader and businessman Dogu Perincek on the other.

Perincek’s followers have long occupied top roles in the Turkish military, which was fine when Erdogan and Perincek sought to take on common enemies: Kurds, liberals, followers of Fethullah Gülen etc. I had previously written about the Erdogan-Perincek struggle within the Turkish military here, but now it seems that the conflict may be accelerating.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for the funeral ceremony for police officer Hasim Usta who was killed in Saturday’s blasts, in Istanbul, Turkey, December 12, 2016. REUTERS/Osman Orsal.

Much of the reporting about Turkey in the West focuses on either President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to draft a new constitution or the aftermath of the abortive July 15 coup. But, behind-the-scenes, there is a story with ramifications as great: the competition for control of the military between followers of Erdogan on one hand and those of ultra-nationalist and former Maoist political leader and businessman Dogu Perincek on the other. Perincek’s followers have long occupied top role in the Turkish military which was fine when Erdogan and Perincek sought to take on common enemies: Kurds, liberals, followers of Fethullah Gülen etc. I had previously written about the Erdogan-Perincek struggle within the Turkish military here, but now it seems that the conflict may be accelerating.

In recent days, Perincek has appeared on television and insisted Erdogan give up on his dreams of changing the constitution. He has cited a letter from a member of his political party calling for a popular rebellion and has now openly called for a change in government. Perincek has also suggested that Turkey could be aflame by March. One prominent Perincek supporter, prominent retired air force officer Ahmet Zeki Ucok has openly said there will be a new coup, but with full buy-in from all levels of the Turkish military.
That Perincek and his followers defy the president’s drive for a new constitution and call openly for a coup but face no consequences suggests they are too powerful for Erdogan to act against.
Turkey has become a prison camp for the political opposition. Erdogan has imprisoned tens of thousands of opponents since the failed July 15 coup. Dozens of elected Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) politicians are in prison. Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli has seen the writing on the wall and has abandoned much of his own constituency in order to become Erdogan’s de facto deputy. According to the Committee for the Protection of Journalists, Turkey imprisoned more journalists last year than any other country—more than twice as many as China and 40 times more than Russia.

Like a playground bully, Erdogan picks on the weak. Like a psychopath, he is not content simply to knock people down, but rather finds joy in both kicking them repeatedly and humiliating them. That Perincek and his followers defy the president’s drive for a new constitution and call openly for a coup but face no consequences suggests they are too powerful for Erdogan to act against. The longer they defy Erdogan with impunity, the weaker Erdogan becomes.

US President-elect Donald Trump may see in Erdogan a strongman with whom he can do business, but he is wrong. To make a business analogy, Erdogan may have become Enron, his fall inevitable even as he projects an image of strength and stability. Either Erdogan goes or Perincek does. That Perincek still walks free perhaps answers the question about who will survive.