Kurdistan Rising
Although the prospect of Kurdish independence appeared remote a decade ago, events have converged to offer Kurds an unprecedented opportunity toward statehood. This project investigates the ongoing evolution of Kurdish nationalism and presents policymakers with an informed overview of the national security challenges emanating from Kurdish territory in four countries: Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Kurdish nationalism ultimately touches on multiple dimensions of American foreign policy, presenting challenges to the stability of the Middle East and to American interests in that region.
War, insurgency, and terror afflict every country in which Kurds live. Still, independence without a willingness to first tackle hard problems or plan for the future can be a recipe for disaster.
Kurdistan Rising?: Quick Take
The Kurdish drive for independence has the potential to disrupt a Middle Eastern order that has lasted more than a century. And yet, the debate both in the United States and among Kurds continues to focus almost exclusively on questions of morality and justice, rather than on the security, diplomatic, and economic issues that one or more Kurdish states or a federation of Kurdish regions would almost immediately face. Michael Rubin examines the challenges facing the Kurds and US policymakers in a new volume titled, “Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region.”
1. Internal divisions will affect Kurdish political aspirations. With a population exceeding 25 million, Kurds say they are “the largest people without a nation.” However, Kurds are anything but unified. While Iraqi Kurds probably would embrace independence if given the chance, their leadership has not moved beyond a symbolic endorsement of such a vision. Meanwhile, Kurdish leaders in Turkey and Syria now speak more of confederations rather than outright independence. Despite nominally sharing an ethnic identity, the reality is much more complex, with competing political philosophies, religious diversity, tribalism, and even language undercutting any shared vision for the future or what independence would mean.
2. Iran, not Turkey, is the biggest impediment to Kurdish independence. Turkey has come around to Iraqi Kurdish autonomy and would most likely seek to co-opt rather than crush a Kurdish state emerging from Iraq. Iran, however, would interpret an independent Kurdish state as a threat to its own territorial integrity. Because of past Kurdish challenges and because Iran is so ethnically diverse, any discussion of Kurdish statehood raises deep suspicion inside Iran.
3. Creating a state is one thing; having a functioning economy is another. In theory, oil and water should make Kurdistan rich. In reality, rentier states often find themselves at an economic dead end. The Kurds will need foreign investment to diversify and expand their economy, but they face five challenges to sustained foreign investment: their continued embrace of left-of-center, if not Marxist, economic philosophy; corruption; a lack of management experience; a lack of financial infrastructure; and the lack of procedural and substantive legal tradition.
4. Military readiness remains in doubt. Kurdistan will, at best, find itself in an unstable region and, at worst, will be surrounded by hostile powers resentful of its independence and disputing both its borders and claim to resources. The transition from autonomous guerrilla units to a more professional, unified Kurdish defense force therefore would be one of the greatest challenges facing a new Kurdish entity.
Who are the Kurds?
Kurdistan rising? Considerations for Kurds, their neighbors, and the region event
Two decades ago, many US officials would have been hard-pressed to place Kurdistan on a map, let alone consider the Kurds as allies. Today, Kurds loom large on the Middle Eastern stage, highlighting their renewed push for independence amid the chaos in Iraq. AEI hosted a discussion for Michael Rubin’s new monograph “Kurdistan Rising? Considerations for Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region,” and the implications of Kurdish independence for US foreign policy.
Read Kurdistan Rising
For the report in English: Download it here
Report now available in Sorani Kurdish. Download it here.
Report now available in Arabic. Download it here.
Report now available in Persian. Download it here.
Is it time for an independent Kurdistan? | IN 60 SECONDS
Will Kurdistan become an independent nation or remain a part of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey? AEI Resident Scholar Michael Rubin explores a third alternative that is already being pursued.