America’s Way Forward in Syria

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 15, 2017 (Washington, DC) – In a just released study, Frederick Kagan, who directs the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Jennifer Cafarella, lead intelligence planner at ISW, and the ISW and CTP analysts, recommend a course of action (COA) for the United States in Syria. The report is the culmination of a series of exercises to frame and develop a strategy to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Syria.

In November 2015, the Critical Threats Project and Institute for the Study of War teams began to examine various options against ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria as local, regional, and global conflicts were escalating. The teams tested 15 different courses of action. The goal was to destroy both ISIS and al Qaeda without sacrificing wider American interests or accepting undue cost or risk. Most COAs failed because they strengthened jihadists, undermined US allies, empowered Russia and Iran at America’s expense, or prolonged and expanded the Syrian war in ways that endangered America’s vital interests. The most dangerous action, however, proved to be inaction.

A summary of the report’s key assessments and recommendations follows:

• The US is fighting the wrong war in the Middle East — and losing it. The US has been trying to apply a one-size-fits-all counter-terrorism campaign to combat jihadists when in fact a counter-insurgency strategy is needed. ISIS and al Qaeda are waging population-centric insurgencies, setting deep roots to control communities from within, while we conduct superficial counter-terrorism operations by proxy. Defeating these groups requires the US to pursue a population-centric counter-insurgency with viable partners from Syria’s and Iraq’s Sunni Arab communities. The administration should also consider what kind of American forces might be required to implement this new approach.

• The US must act quickly — with willing and acceptable partners — to seize and secure a base of operations in southeastern Syria in order to expand American freedom of action in the region. The goal is to help form a new Syrian Sunni Arab partner. US actions must set the conditions necessary to prevent the reconstitution of ISIS and al Qaeda and to resettle refugees eventually. This recommended action is the first step in an initial campaign to achieve long-term US interests.

• President Trump cannot quickly end the war in Syria while protecting American interests. He should instead first set out to extricate the US from the constraints imposed by our dependence on unreliable partners who do not share our interests, establish an independent American position and set attainable near-term objectives.

• Current US strategy empowers al Qaeda. The US has prioritized defeating ISIS before turning to al Qaeda. This has allowed al Qaeda to strengthen in the background and co-opt local populations. Al Qaeda is preparing to regain control over the global Salafi-jihadi movement when ISIS is defeated. It has amassed an army in northern Syria.

• Iran has developed a functioning, interoperable, and deployable coalition of its proxies with Russia’s help, which will deny America the freedom to protect its own interests. The Russo-Iranian coalition will make it more difficult for the US to respond to terror threats against it, defend strategic allies like Israel, and ensure unfettered access to trade routes the US economy depends on.

• The US must take the initiative and advance a multinational strategy. No regional actor can or will develop the moderate Sunni Arab resistance needed to defeat ISIS and al Qaeda insurgencies. Turkey supports the al Qaeda-penetrated Ahrar al-Sham, a Sunni jihadist group. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are embroiled in Yemen and have given up on the idea of a moderate opposition in Syria. Jordan faces a major internal Salafi-jihadi threat and has few resources. Together, the US and the Sunni Arab community must create a new political-security system against jihadists. Without it, any battlefield success will be temporary at best and will ultimately collapse.

Read the accompanying Wall Street Journal piece here. Read the full report here.

For more information, please contact Paige Tenkhoff at [email protected] or 202.862.5904.

For inquiries regarding ISW, please contact [email protected].