10 years after ‘the pivot’: Still America’s Pacific century?

Key Points

• Asia’s significance to the United States has never been greater, but the past decade has seen a recurring gap between US rhetoric about the region’s importance and actual strategy, policies, budgets, and attention.
• To get America back on track in Asia, the Biden administration and Congress must prioritize three urgent course corrections: (1) re-centering US strategy on the region as a whole, rather than on China; (2) embracing a positive regional economic agenda; and (3) significantly increasing diplomatic and military resources devoted to the region.

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Introduction

This autumn marks the 10th anniversary of the Barack Obama administration’s announcement of the United States’ famous “pivot” to Asia.¹ In a high-profile November 2011 speech in Canberra, Australia, then-President Obama stated, “After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region.”² Several weeks earlier, in a widely discussed article titled “America’s Pacific Century,” then–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asserted,

In Asia, they ask whether we are really there to stay, whether we are likely to be distracted again by events elsewhere, whether we can make—and keep—credible economic and strategic commitments, and whether we can back those commitments with action. The answer is: we can, and we will.³

A decade, two administrations, and five Congresses later, the same questions are being asked about the seriousness and sustainability of US economic and strategic commitments to Asia. But despite some important accomplishments, the reality of the past 10 years has been sobering. To many in the region, American answers to these questions are less convincing today than they were a decade ago.

This is especially unfortunate because Asia’s importance to the United States has never been greater. Since 2011, the region has become more wealthy, populous, militarily powerful, economically integrated, globally engaged, and influential. China’s rise is only part of the story. Economically, Asia is home to more than half the world’s population and gross domestic product, four of the world’s five largest economies, and five of America’s top 10 trading partners. Security-wise, it contains five US treaty allies, even more key security partners, and numerous military flash points. By 2030, Asia will contribute the majority of global growth and over 90 percent of the global middle class’ new members.⁴ For these reasons, the Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden administrations have all emphasized the crucial importance of Asia (or the Indo-Pacific) to America’s future—and rightly so.

Nevertheless, over the past decade there has often been a stark gap between US rhetoric and action. Across almost every element of US foreign policy—from diplomacy to the military, trade, and investment—implementation has come far short of the aspirations from 10 years ago. Rhetoric and policy are too often narrowly centered on competing with China rather than focusing on a positive and comprehensive vision for the region. Successive administrations and the US Congress have underinvested in diplomacy and failed to tailor the US military’s approach to the rapidly changing regional threat environment. Perhaps most glaringly, US leaders have failed to realize the economic pillar of the vaunted rebalance—epitomized by the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). As the region has become more economically integrated, including with China, the United States has largely sat on the sidelines.

Today, Biden repeatedly asserts that “America is back” and emphasizes the importance of US leadership and international cooperation. His administration’s early approach to Asia has much to commend it—particularly its proactive embrace of key allies and partners and its championing of a multilateral vision.⁵ But given repeated disconnects between US talk and action, many in the region will continue to wonder how committed Washington truly is.⁶

This report reflects on the United States’ Asia strategy and the rapid changes unfolding in the region since the pivot and draws lessons for the Biden administration and Congress. It concludes that, despite some recent successes, Washington is again in danger of falling into familiar traps. US administrations and congressional leaders—of both major political parties—are fond of asserting Asia’s importance and talking tough about competition with China. But the sobering reality is these comments are often decoupled from US policies, budgets, and sustained attention. Despite widespread talk of “strategic competition,” the United States has often failed to compete effectively or strategically with China. The bottom line is that talk is cheap, and surveys of regional players make clear that the past decade of America’s Pacific century has often underwhelmed. Today, nearly nine months into a new administration and Congress, concerns are growing that history may repeat itself.

If America is to get back on track in Asia, US leaders must learn from the past decade’s missteps. Righting the balance between speechmaking and difference-making will require a clear purpose, grounded in shared principles and backed, when necessary, by power. US leaders must go beyond talking tough about China and security concerns. They must articulate a positive, affirmative, and multilateral agenda in Asia and spearhead a government-wide effort to resource and execute a comprehensive strategy for shaping the region’s future.

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Notes

1. Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (New York: Twelve, 2016).
2. White House, “Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament,” press release, November 17, 2011, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament.
3. Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, October 11, 2011, http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/.
4. Praneeth Yendamuri and Zara Ingilizian, “In 2020 Asia Will Have the World’s Largest GDP. Here’s What That Means,” World Economic Forum, December 20, 2019, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/asia-economic-growth/.
5. Joe Biden et al., “Opinion: Our Four Nations Are Committed to a Free, Open, Secure and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region,” Washington Post, March 13, 2021, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/13/biden-modi-morrison-suga-quad-nations-indo-pacific/.
6. James Crabtree, “A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia,” Foreign Policy, June 27, 2021, http://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/27/southeast-asia-asean-china-us-biden-blinken-confusion-geopolitics/.