AEI Political Report: The summer of our political discontent

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Dissatisfied. Alarmed. Interested. That’s how voters are telling pollsters they feel about this year’s election. The July–August issue of AEI’s Political Report explores these reactions and shows voter discontent is the highest it has been in two decades. Ahead of both parties’ conventions, the editors also review past surveys of convention delegates, revealing differences between the parties’ delegations and how they have changed over the past 40 years. Looking ahead to Election Day, we examine when people vote, what method they use, and how they view the voting process.

Political discontent

• Hold your nose: Fifty-eight percent of registered voters say they are “not too” or “not at all” satisfied with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as the presidential candidates, the highest response in an election year since 1992 (Pew). When Fox News pollsters asked registered voters how they feel about this matchup, 43 percent said, “I will just have to hold my nose and vote for one of them.”

Convention delegates

• A who’s who: From 1968 through 2008, CBS News conducted surveys of the delegates to both parties’ conventions. In 1968, 13 percent of Democratic delegates and 16 percent of Republican ones were women; in 2008, 49 percent and 32 percent, respectively. In 1976, 40 percent of Democratic delegates identified as liberal, while 43 percent did in 2008. Among Republican delegates, 48 percent identified as conservative in 1976, while 72 percent did in 2008.
• On the issues: Republican delegates in 2008 were more conservative on the issue of abortion than they were in 2000. Both years, about 70 percent of Democratic delegates said abortion should be generally available. In 2008, 83 percent of Democratic delegates said government should do more to solve national problems, up from 76 percent in 1996. Republicans were emphatic that government was doing too many things; 91 percent gave that response both years.

Voting in presidential elections

• The process: Twenty years ago, nearly 90 percent of voters cast their ballots in person on Election Day. In 2012, that was down to 67 percent, according to Current Population Survey data. More than 9 in 10 said the voting process in their area worked well in 2012, with most saying they did not have to wait in line or have any other problems voting (Pew). People were more confident their own vote was counted accurately than they were about votes nationally (Pew).
• Voting rights: In a late 2015 CNN/Kaiser Family Foundation survey, 77 percent of blacks and 57 percent of Hispanics said the Voting Rights Act is necessary today to make sure that blacks are allowed to vote, compared to 49 percent of whites. Twelve percent of blacks and 7 percent of whites in a 2015 CBS News survey said they had ever encountered problems trying to vote. In 2012, only 4 percent of white voters and 2 percent of black voters told Pew pollsters they had problems voting in the presidential election.
• Voter ID, voter fraud, voters denied: Since 2006, strong majorities have told pollsters they believe voters should have to show an official photo identification to vote. Other polls show people are concerned both about voter fraud and about people being prevented from voting; question wording can pull them in one direction or another.

 

 

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